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Yeah, I think it's a combination of Macron being pissed off at Putin, Macron debased himself trying to get Putin to stop, I think the other considerations are Macron wanting to position himself/France as a leader of Europe which means you have to actually start listening to the concerns of the Baltic, Eastern and Central bloc of countries. He probably also sees the writing on the wall in regards to America, they can't be relied on as long as Republicans have the power to block, Europe needs to step things up if they want to protect Europe, we can't be sure of America's help anymore.

It’s similar to the Cold War politics - or just watch Babylon 5, which is a reimagining of The Silmarillion, except the Valar (Vorlons) and the forces of Morgoth/darkness (Shadows) are involved in a Cold War, with the smaller realms of Elves, humans, dwarves (or Minbari, Humans, Centauri, Narn, etc…) being the third world states that they use to fight each other… and the whole thing is set in space, centered on a neutral Space Station where the various empires/factions from across the galaxy have embassies. In Babylon 5, the Vorlons and Shadows, being the two major ancient empires, had weapons and technology so devastating that they didn’t use it so that the preservation of the galaxy might be upheld. A similar thing happened in The Silmarillion without the cold-war framing, and both stories ended with the war of wrath where the Valar/Vorlons finally launched their hot war against Morgoth/Shadows, and it had devastating effects… much like if the US and Russia launched nukes at each other.

That’s what I think the political situation looks like for Western countries vs the more central countries. There is a permit for certain countries to have a combative relationship with the power countries without triggering nuclear war. This permit doesn’t exist for the US or other Western powers (Germany, UK, France, and others).

Also, the Baltics are in the next most desperate proximity to Russia after the Caucasian nations and Ukraine (perhaps Moldova).

New development in the SPD cowardice: Five German historians who belong to the camp of social democrats have sent a letter to the SPD bosses which apparently has hit hard enough that the SPD is willing to meet with them after Easter to talk about it all.

I'll take some liberty in translating key passages of the letter:

The communication of the chancellor and the party regarding weapon deliveries is rightfully strongly criticized. The SPD's arguments and reasoning are commonly factually wrong.

When the chancellor and his party draw red lines for German politics instead of Russia, they weaken Germany's security politics and play into the hands of Russia.

The historians also criticize Scholz for his definitive statements in response to Macron's strategic ambiguity, because such public disagreements are only encouraging Putin. Furthermore, the SPD is still lacking an honest analysis of their decades-long foreign politics regarding Russia, this makes the SPD lack credibility and open to attacks.

They also say that a real paradigm shift would require one thing above all: The understanding that Russia fights a hybrid war against Europe since many years, and that Russia's goal is to destroy Ukraine entirely since the beginning of the invasion in February 2022.

The core message of the letter is that the SPD is engaging in denial of reality.

...

Will something come out of this? Who knows. But the historians are people who are recognized as the SPD's peers, so at least the SPD won't ignore them like they do with so many others, including the oppositional parties as well as their own partners in the governing coalition.

One thing is clear though: After many months of Ukraine fading into the background, it's one of the hottest topics in news and politics again. Even if nothing comes out of this, an alive debate is still better than growing indifference.

Looks like an angry Russian airport worker got his revenge against ISIS-K, by attacking an Emirates owned A380 at a Moscow airport.

I'm going to lump my two replies into one so apologies

I think it's still bad to say this publicly because it does make America's support to Ukraine look weaker and not only that, it makes America look weak, there are many other ways they could have answered this question in a way wherein they dodged the question, they could have used a variation of Finland's comment and instead just said "Ukraine is fighting a defensive war and has legitimate reason to attack military targets across the border, this is backed up by the U.N. Charter" but instead it comes more across like they're telling Ukraine off.

It's also unconfirmed they are telling Ukraine in secret that it is fine and it is likely they are telling Ukraine in secret not to do it as well, we already know that according to some countries, others are telling Ukraine that they can't use their delivered weapons on Russian soil, America has never been confirmed as one of those countries but I think it's pretty obvious that those countries are US, UK, France and Germany. Otherwise Storm Shadow/SCALP would have been used on Russian soil and it also explains USA's and Germany's reluctance to provide ATACMS and Taurus.

We shouldn't care about Russia getting mad about us sending certain weapons. They already said supplying Ukraine at all would be a redline, they already said that anti-tank missiles would be a redline, they already said that tanks would be a redline, they already said long-range missiles would be a redline, they already said that jets would be a redline. They get angry at every single weapon we send and do nothing about it. Even so, America still hasn't supplied Ukraine with ATACMS and Russia already spreads propaganda that they're fighting NATO.

All Russia cares about is power and in the public eye they consistently see countries like America and Germany cowering behind "escalation" and fear. Russia doesn't care about what the Baltics say if the Baltics say it alone, I'm sorry but Russia is not afraid of the Baltics, especially when the West doesn't have their backs. My counterpoint point would be that there's a bigger permit for UK/France/America to have a more firm stance against Russia, why? Because they all have nukes, Russia does not want a nuclear war no matter how much they pretend.

France has finally seemingly started to realise that, as a nuclear holding country they have a responsibility to be Europe's protector and take a firmer stance against Russian aggression because they can. Botox Putin who is afraid of sitting near people doesn't want to die in a nuclear hellfire, he wants to live as long as possible, there is no threat of triggering a nuclear war unless the West actually starts marching on Moscow and that fear of nuclear war exactly plays in Russia's favour because they use that to weaken Western support for Ukraine.

Russia has interfered in our elections, cyberattacked our countries, shot down a passenger jet with people from the West, attacked American troops in Syria via Wagner, assassinates people in our countries using deadly nerve agents, violates our airspace with missiles and all I hear from America and Germany is tutting and telling off at either Ukraine defending itself or being angry at eastern/central European countries for taking a firmer stance against Russia...Like...What's it going to take...?

All this stuff just makes me lose a bit of confidence in NATO to the point where I'd start to seriously question if some countries even send troops into Latvia to defend them if Russia invaded the country or instead they'd just send Latvia some weapons and say "use em, but don't use em on Russia, you can only attack Russian troops or infrastructure once they cross into your border" Lol. I should also note that, all these different opinions and comments on how Ukraine should operate isn't making NATO look united either.

We have countries in NATO saying that Ukraine should be able to hit targets inside of Russia, including with NATO weapons, then we've got countries telling Ukraine off for using their own weapons and actively blocking Ukraine from using their delivered ones on Russian soil out of fear. We have countries unwilling to send Ukraine certain things because they don't trust Ukraine despite Ukraine having a near equivalent missile from other countries.

We have some countries in NATO saying that troops in Ukraine is a possibility and we have other countries losing their damn minds at the sheer suggestion of the fact and raging at the countries for suggesting it. We've still got back and forth arguments about sending certain weapons. We've got some countries demanding a firmer stance and others telling them off for taking a firmer stance because they're being too "hawkish" Lets not get into the fact that we can't even trust Hungary and now Slovakia.

You know who looks more united than NATO right now? Russia. Their leadership has only one goal, the destruction of Ukraine, while the West bickers, argues, tells each other off, is indecisive, is fearful. If Ukraine loses then I anticipate a shitstorm of anger thrown between members of NATO and the Baltics would be at the top of that list with genuine and understandable anger towards Western Europe.

Anyway...

We should be prepared for quite a bit of bad news for Ukraine in 2024, Russia mobilising another few hundred thousand for the meat grinder, a lack of ammunition, Republicans working on behalf of Russia, etc. Ukraine needs 100s of thousands of rounds of ammunition per month now, not spread across the entire year. This year I'm preparing for Ukraine to lose quite a bit of territory but territory is just rubble and dirt after Russia is done with it and it can be retaken but Ukraine must get through 2024 before things start looking brighter.

The French Ministry of Defense reported on the pace of arms production and plans to provide military assistance to Ukraine.

Sébastien Lecornu, the country’s Minister of Defense, discussed this during the press conference.

In 2024, the country’s defense industry will produce 600 AASM guided bombs. Next year, France plans to double this number, reaching 1,200 bombs.

According to Lecornu, the government is to transfer 100 bombs as military aid to Ukraine by the end of March. The Air Force is actively using them on the front line, having integrated them with MiG-29 fighter jets.

He also reported on discussions on the integration of AASM bombs with F-16 fighter jets, the first of which are to be in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine this year.

In 2024, MBDA’s French division is planning to produce 40 SCALP cruise missiles, the production of which has been halted for a long time. It is not yet clear whether this means resuming production or repairing existing missiles in stock.

These are the missiles used by the Ukrainian Air Force to strike the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

The Minister of Defense also discussed the production of ammunition, announcing that the arms industry intends to produce about 100,000 shells this year.

Of the one hundred thousand 155-mm artillery rounds, 80,000 should be provided to Ukraine as military aid, and the rest stay in France.

Lecornu also reminded that as part of the “artillery coalition” program, France, Denmark, and Ukraine financed the production of 78 Caesar self-propelled howitzers at Nexter’s facilities. All of them are to be manufactured by the end of the year.

It is assumed that each of the countries participating in the coalition will contribute to funding this project. Thus, France will use EUR 50 million from its Support Fund of Ukraine to order 12 out of 78 howitzers. Ukraine funded the production of 6 more ACS.

Bombs, missiles, and ammunition: France announces plans to produce weapons - Militarnyi

Shame they can only produce 40 SCALP...I'm assuming the production line was stopped due to UK, France and Italy working on its successor called SPEAR 5 but with how successful Storm Shadow/SCALP has been you'd think that would have made them restart production earlier, I'm sure some countries would like to buy these missiles after seeing their success in Ukraine and SPEAR 5 won't be ready until 2028 for the land version and 2034 for the anti-ship version. The production line should be restarted full speed, it may delay SPEAR 5 but there's no rush after seeing how Storm Shadow/SCALP runs circles around Russia's air-defence. Though SPEAR 5 is set to also replace anti-ship missiles too. It's designed to be both a land attack missile and anti-ship missile.