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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Top 104M - Global Hardware Feb 6-12

Kakadu18 on 23 February 2022
Mandalore76 said:
curl-6 said:

Heck, I remember someone posting quite seriously in late 2020 that Switch sales would nosedive in 2021.

I'll do one better.  I remember someone posting late 2021 that Switch sales will take a nosedive this year.  Not dip, but drop by 10 million units in one year.   Still waiting for that 150,000 baseline weekly average to appear.

Oh, I remember that. Such predictions are rarely really thought through.



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Norion on 23 February 2022
Mandalore76 said:
curl-6 said:

Heck, I remember someone posting quite seriously in late 2020 that Switch sales would nosedive in 2021.

I'll do one better.  I remember someone posting late 2021 that Switch sales will take a nosedive this year.  Not dip, but drop by 10 million units in one year.   Still waiting for that 150,000 baseline weekly average to appear.

My impression was that being a big over correction after heavily overestimating the PS4. I wonder how long till someone predicts a massive drop for 2023.



Jumpin on 23 February 2022

At least 80% of the posts about the cliff, over the past year, are ironic.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

curl-6 on 23 February 2022
Mandalore76 said:
curl-6 said:

Heck, I remember someone posting quite seriously in late 2020 that Switch sales would nosedive in 2021.

I'll do one better.  I remember someone posting late 2021 that Switch sales will take a nosedive this year.  Not dip, but drop by 10 million units in one year.   Still waiting for that 150,000 baseline weekly average to appear.

Ah yes, I think I know the one, was that the "Switch will sell 15 million in 2022" prediction?

I swear my memory is like a sieve. But yeah, barring a foolishly premature replacement, no way 2022 sales are that low. With the year's lineup as stellar it is, so long as Nintendo keeps their head I anticipate another year over 20 million, even with the chip shortage.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 23 February 2022

archbrix on 23 February 2022
RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

Ah yes, I think I know the one, was that the "Switch will sell 15 million in 2022" prediction?

I swear my memory is like a sieve. But yeah, barring a foolishly premature replacement, no way 2022 sales are that low. With the year's lineup as stellar it is, so long as Nintendo keeps their head I anticipate another year over 20 million, even with the chip shortage.

20 million break down to 3.5m per quarter from January to September (=10.5m) and 9.5m in the holiday quarter. Indeed, that's not too much to ask for even in light of chip shortages.

It'll happen.  Nintendo is predicting 4m for the worst 13 weeks regarding shortages (Jan-Mar) - averaging around 315,000 per week.  Even with that weekly average from April to September, Nintendo will not be far off from the 8.28m they managed last Q1/Q2, and demand will, of course, be much higher.

For the holiday quarter, shortages should be easing up this year, whereas last year the holidays were when stock began to have problems, so there's no reason to think that another 10m+ holiday quarter isn't in the cards for Switch in 2022.

I really don't see a scenario where the Switch does less than 22m this year, save for stock taking some unforeseen nosedive as the year goes on.

Last edited by archbrix - on 26 February 2022

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curl-6 on 23 February 2022
archbrix said:
RolStoppable said:

20 million break down to 3.5m per quarter from January to September (=10.5m) and 9.5m in the holiday quarter. Indeed, that's not too much to ask for even in light of chip shortages.

It'll happen.  Nintendo is predicting 4m for the worst 13 weeks regarding shortages (Jan-Mar) - averaging around 315,000 per week.  Even with that weekly average from April to September, Nintendo will not be far off from the 8.7m they managed last Q1/Q2, and demand will, of course, be much higher.

For the holiday quarter, shortages should be easing up this year, whereas last year the holidays were when stock began to have problems, so there's no reason to think that another 10m+ holiday quarter isn't in the cards for Switch in 2022.

I really don't see a scenario where the Switch does less than 22m this year, save for stock taking some unforeseen nosedive as the year goes on.

The only scenarios I can see pulling Switch below 20 million for the year are if the chip crunch worsens instead of improving, or if Nintendo decides to announce or release the successor this year, which could see Switch do a PS4 and be quickly sidelined in favour of pushing the new hardware due to limited production capacity.



archbrix on 24 February 2022
curl-6 said:
archbrix said:

It'll happen.  Nintendo is predicting 4m for the worst 13 weeks regarding shortages (Jan-Mar) - averaging around 315,000 per week.  Even with that weekly average from April to September, Nintendo will not be far off from the 8.7m they managed last Q1/Q2, and demand will, of course, be much higher.

For the holiday quarter, shortages should be easing up this year, whereas last year the holidays were when stock began to have problems, so there's no reason to think that another 10m+ holiday quarter isn't in the cards for Switch in 2022.

I really don't see a scenario where the Switch does less than 22m this year, save for stock taking some unforeseen nosedive as the year goes on.

The only scenarios I can see pulling Switch below 20 million for the year are if the chip crunch worsens instead of improving, or if Nintendo decides to announce or release the successor this year, which could see Switch do a PS4 and be quickly sidelined in favour of pushing the new hardware due to limited production capacity.

There's zero chance Nintendo launches Switch's successor this year.



peachbuggy on 24 February 2022
Mar1217 said:
Kakadu18 said:

Most people realized this years ago, it's mainly just brought up as a joke.

Maaaan, we really have to thank that Rick to invent such a genius meme, unironically ;)

Mandalore76 said:

I'll do one better.  I remember someone posting late 2021 that Switch sales will take a nosedive this year.  Not dip, but drop by 10 million units in one year.   Still waiting for that 150,000 baseline weekly average to appear.

I don't remember which user did it but I think he predicted something like 16M projected sales for this year. The world would litteraly need to be ablazed at this point for his prediction to be realized

I remember who said it but don't think it's fair to name and shame on this thread. Let's just say they have their own sales-related thread on this site.



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curl-6 on 24 February 2022

I often wonder what quickrick would say if he were still around today.



ironmanDX on 24 February 2022
curl-6 said:

I often wonder what quickrick would say if he were still around today.

Me too... 

The meme is almost as good as globally in the US... Almost.