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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Top 104M - Global Hardware Feb 6-12

Mandalore76 said:
curl-6 said:

Heck, I remember someone posting quite seriously in late 2020 that Switch sales would nosedive in 2021.

I'll do one better.  I remember someone posting late 2021 that Switch sales will take a nosedive this year.  Not dip, but drop by 10 million units in one year.   Still waiting for that 150,000 baseline weekly average to appear.

Ah yes, I think I know the one, was that the "Switch will sell 15 million in 2022" prediction?

I swear my memory is like a sieve. But yeah, barring a foolishly premature replacement, no way 2022 sales are that low. With the year's lineup as stellar it is, so long as Nintendo keeps their head I anticipate another year over 20 million, even with the chip shortage.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 23 February 2022

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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curl-6 said:
Mandalore76 said:

I'll do one better.  I remember someone posting late 2021 that Switch sales will take a nosedive this year.  Not dip, but drop by 10 million units in one year.   Still waiting for that 150,000 baseline weekly average to appear.

Ah yes, I think I know the one, was that the "Switch will sell 15 million in 2022" prediction?

I swear my memory is like a sieve. But yeah, barring a foolishly premature replacement, no way 2022 sales are that low. With the year's lineup as stellar it is, so long as Nintendo keeps their head I anticipate another year over 20 million, even with the chip shortage.

20 million break down to 3.5m per quarter from January to September (=10.5m) and 9.5m in the holiday quarter. Indeed, that's not too much to ask for even in light of chip shortages.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

Ah yes, I think I know the one, was that the "Switch will sell 15 million in 2022" prediction?

I swear my memory is like a sieve. But yeah, barring a foolishly premature replacement, no way 2022 sales are that low. With the year's lineup as stellar it is, so long as Nintendo keeps their head I anticipate another year over 20 million, even with the chip shortage.

20 million break down to 3.5m per quarter from January to September (=10.5m) and 9.5m in the holiday quarter. Indeed, that's not too much to ask for even in light of chip shortages.

It'll happen.  Nintendo is predicting 4m for the worst 13 weeks regarding shortages (Jan-Mar) - averaging around 315,000 per week.  Even with that weekly average from April to September, Nintendo will not be far off from the 8.28m they managed last Q1/Q2, and demand will, of course, be much higher.

For the holiday quarter, shortages should be easing up this year, whereas last year the holidays were when stock began to have problems, so there's no reason to think that another 10m+ holiday quarter isn't in the cards for Switch in 2022.

I really don't see a scenario where the Switch does less than 22m this year, save for stock taking some unforeseen nosedive as the year goes on.

Last edited by archbrix - on 26 February 2022

archbrix said:
RolStoppable said:

20 million break down to 3.5m per quarter from January to September (=10.5m) and 9.5m in the holiday quarter. Indeed, that's not too much to ask for even in light of chip shortages.

It'll happen.  Nintendo is predicting 4m for the worst 13 weeks regarding shortages (Jan-Mar) - averaging around 315,000 per week.  Even with that weekly average from April to September, Nintendo will not be far off from the 8.7m they managed last Q1/Q2, and demand will, of course, be much higher.

For the holiday quarter, shortages should be easing up this year, whereas last year the holidays were when stock began to have problems, so there's no reason to think that another 10m+ holiday quarter isn't in the cards for Switch in 2022.

I really don't see a scenario where the Switch does less than 22m this year, save for stock taking some unforeseen nosedive as the year goes on.

The only scenarios I can see pulling Switch below 20 million for the year are if the chip crunch worsens instead of improving, or if Nintendo decides to announce or release the successor this year, which could see Switch do a PS4 and be quickly sidelined in favour of pushing the new hardware due to limited production capacity.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
archbrix said:

It'll happen.  Nintendo is predicting 4m for the worst 13 weeks regarding shortages (Jan-Mar) - averaging around 315,000 per week.  Even with that weekly average from April to September, Nintendo will not be far off from the 8.7m they managed last Q1/Q2, and demand will, of course, be much higher.

For the holiday quarter, shortages should be easing up this year, whereas last year the holidays were when stock began to have problems, so there's no reason to think that another 10m+ holiday quarter isn't in the cards for Switch in 2022.

I really don't see a scenario where the Switch does less than 22m this year, save for stock taking some unforeseen nosedive as the year goes on.

The only scenarios I can see pulling Switch below 20 million for the year are if the chip crunch worsens instead of improving, or if Nintendo decides to announce or release the successor this year, which could see Switch do a PS4 and be quickly sidelined in favour of pushing the new hardware due to limited production capacity.

There's zero chance Nintendo launches Switch's successor this year.



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Kakadu18 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Switch did nearly 400k on a week where nothing special happened, and it also passed 104M.  Folks, the Switch cliff is never going to come.  I hope most people realize this now.  If you are hoping for a Switch cliff, then abandon all hope now.

People are thinking Switch will plummet quickly like certain past systems, i.e. the Wii or DS (eventually).  The Switch is actually performing like a past system, but that system is the NES/Famicom.  That is the last time that Nintendo could focus all of its resources on supporting one system.  It was also the most dominant system in history, at least in Japan and US.  The Switch is a return to form.  It's just as dominant in Japan as the Famicom, and it's doing extremely well in the other parts of the world.  The NES sold for several years after the SNES launched.  Expect the Switch to keep selling too.

Most people realized this years ago, it's mainly just brought up as a joke.

Maaaan, we really have to thank that Rick to invent such a genius meme, unironically ;)

Mandalore76 said:
curl-6 said:

Heck, I remember someone posting quite seriously in late 2020 that Switch sales would nosedive in 2021.

I'll do one better.  I remember someone posting late 2021 that Switch sales will take a nosedive this year.  Not dip, but drop by 10 million units in one year.   Still waiting for that 150,000 baseline weekly average to appear.

I don't remember which user did it but I think he predicted something like 16M projected sales for this year. The world would litteraly need to be ablazed at this point for his prediction to be realized



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Mar1217 said:
Kakadu18 said:

Most people realized this years ago, it's mainly just brought up as a joke.

Maaaan, we really have to thank that Rick to invent such a genius meme, unironically ;)

Mandalore76 said:

I'll do one better.  I remember someone posting late 2021 that Switch sales will take a nosedive this year.  Not dip, but drop by 10 million units in one year.   Still waiting for that 150,000 baseline weekly average to appear.

I don't remember which user did it but I think he predicted something like 16M projected sales for this year. The world would litteraly need to be ablazed at this point for his prediction to be realized

I remember who said it but don't think it's fair to name and shame on this thread. Let's just say they have their own sales-related thread on this site.



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In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

I often wonder what quickrick would say if he were still around today.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

I often wonder what quickrick would say if he were still around today.

Me too... 

The meme is almost as good as globally in the US... Almost. 



Mar1217 said:

*snip*…The world would litteraly need to be ablazed at this point for his prediction to be realized

*Looks at the news about eastern europe*

Be careful with what you wish for…