Tbh if the successor really is releasing in 2024, I would feel like Nintendo really hasn't done nearly enough to push Switch sales as much as they could. After how 2023 is going for the Switch I'm almost inclined to say that releasing the Switch 2 in 2024 would feel to early.

This recent fiscal year half is showing profit up 27%, and net sales for Nintendo are the HIGHEST since the Switch first launched, even beating out the monster year of 2020, I feel like the Switch's momentum is still so high to risk potentially hampering it with a successor next year.

No other console in its 7th year, or even any year in general been this profitable. With a forecast ordinary profit of 3.96 Billion, this fiscal year would make it the 3rd Most Profitable Console Year IN HISTORY, Playstation & Xbox never in their nearly 30 years in the business even at their peak ever reached profits that the Switch is attaining in its 7th year.

Nintendo could also do so much more with the current Switch to push sales, the 3DS released 6 different models during its lifetime which was big in pushing it to 75M sold. The Switch so far only had 3 and it would be mind-boggling if Nintendo only left it at that considering how many different models succesful handhelds, and even consoles got. They could release a digital-only Switch for 50-100$ less and make up the profit through the high profit-margins associated with digital purchases, a TV-only Switch model, a Switch Lite Oled, ect.... There's so much left to do to push the Switch right now.

The Switch done all this without any price cuts yet, a 2024 release of the successor would be too early and a major sabotage at this point, why fix something that not only isn't broken, but a product that is thriving more than you could ever imagine. I don't think the Switch should be on its way out that early.

I'm hoping for a 7.5 million Q3 and what about the possibility of Switch getting to 1.5 billion software, it may have a chance.

Probably 16-17 million in FY 2023/24. I'm guessing down to 12 million in FY 2024/25.

6 models was desperation for 3DS. DS (which had over double the units) had 4, and GBA which sold more than 3DS had 3. 

As far as rushing Switch into replacement, it's a debate that has been had many times on this thread and others. It's a no-win situation for Nintendo. If they take a while still to replace Switch, I feel like they're leaving money on the table. But then there is also the argument that if they launch Switch 2 Holiday 2024 or earlier, they're also leaving money on the table.

Nintendo's current calculation seems to be that price cuts would only sell more units of Switch, but reduce profit and potentially not increase software sales enough to be worth it. Even with Nintendo's ego, I hardly think outselling DS and PS2 lifetime sales is a big deal to them. Switch is already more profitable than either platform. 

The switch in the past year has been rather steady. No dramatic increases (though TOTK did boost Switch by about 2 million) and earns roughly 1 million sells per month gaining ~7 million since March 2023. Holiday Seasons for the Switch have been in decline losing about 1-2 million per year since 2020 (which was the biggest year for the Switch at 28.73 million), and last season earned it 8.22 million as seen from @ShadowLink93 recent post a couple hours earlier. And there is a new seasonal game that will be the most bought Holiday game this year (Super Mario Bros. Wonder).
Given this information I make an assumption that the Switch will sell approx. 7.3 million this holiday season, just below the 140 million mark.
Entering into 2024 it will be selling an average 1 million consoles per month. This will push the Switch to 147 million sales.
Entering into the Q3 of 2024 will be the release of the newest Nintendo console (unofficially codenamed Nintendo NG, for Nintendo Next Generation). We will see a steep decline in Switch sales. Maybe 3 million that holiday season. Bringing the Switch to 150 million.

Personally, I don't want a new console from Nintendo but I recognize that the technology is over 10 years old, and there are many signs as to the coming of a new generation of console:
-President Shuntaro Furuwaka states that "product launch won't happen before next spring at the earliest", this is in relation to the newest console in the works.
-Nintendo recently submitted a new patent that looks to be a DS with a detachable screen (maybe the next console?).
-Nintendo showcased their next console in a close door scenario with future developers
-Multiple developers have been given dev kits for the next generation of the Nintendo console.

Nintendo loves the Switch, they love the concept of "on the go" fun and even stated that the "Switch is just in the middle of its lifecycle and the momentum going into this year is good. The Switch is ready to break a pattern of our past consoles that saw momentum weakening in their sixth year on the market and grow further." (Can someone please explain how they think they are in the middle of the lifecycle for the Switch, this was in February 2022 the end of its 5th year). The Switch will break this pattern. This is how:
-Nintendo also stated that they will help bolster Switch sales “by supplementing existing titles with a continuous stream of new titles and add-on content.”
-This aligns with heir comment mentioning that "We are still working on software for the Switch for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025".
-And based on past data when the Wii first was sold it was $249.99, when the WiiU released the Wii dropped to $129.99, which is a $100 drop, and when the 3DS released the DS dropped approximately $40. Meaning the Nintendo Switch V2 and OLED will receive a $100 drop when its successor releases, selling at $199.99, $249.99 respectively. And the Lite will sell at $149.99 with a $50 drop. So hopefully some people will see this drop in price and purchase more due to the expanded library, cheap cost, and  extended content releasing until 2025.

From 2025 the Switch will be able to sell at least another 6 or 7 million reaching 157 million, and maybe the following year will sale another 2 or 3 million leading into 159 million, and 2027 will be its last selling year reaching 160 million. Let's a-go!

@ShadowLink93 7.5 million seems pretty optimistic in my opinion. I personally don't even think they will sell 7 million Switch units this holiday. I'm thinking it will be around 6.75 million (and then they'll sell probably 2 million or close to it in Jan-Mar 2024 and reach their 15 million target). I just see holiday sales dropping by over 1 million this holiday compared to last holiday, even with all the bundles this time around. I mean the system has already sold over 130 million. With that in mind, I do see holiday 2023 being the lowest selling holiday for the Switch up to this point (obviously future holidays will be lower).

Sure, all Nintendo needs to do is release a Mario 2 movie next year that makes 1.3 billion box office, a new 3D Zelda, and another Mario platformer. 

Lets be real, these factors are causing a late gen burst. Next year when like Princess Peach is being asked to carry the system and there's no movie boost, reality will probably creep in hard and decline will set in rapidly. The fact is the system is probably declining in North America and Europe even with three huge factors (TOTK, Mario movie, Mario Wonder) propping the system up. 

Nintendo is damned if they do, damned if they don't. If they give Switch great games like TOTK and Mario Wonder late in the product cycle then you'll say "well they're betraying the Switch by ending it soon!", if they kept TOTK and Mario Wonder off the system in favor of the next system, then it's "well they're betraying the Switch by not supporting it enough in the late product cycle!".

After Mario Wonder and Mario RPG Remake no one can seriously claim Nintendo didn't give the Switch 1 just about everything they realistically could. All systems come to an end. 

Fun reminder: The NES was still peaking in a lot of ways in the US and Europe around 1990/1991 thanks in part to Mario 3, it shipped over 7.5 million in the US in the fiscal year ending March 1991 which was the second highest shipment of the NES cycle in the West and was up 2 million units from the year before. That 7.5 million would remain the highest Nintendo console shipment for like 17 years in North America. They still went ahead and launched the Super NES like 5 months later. 

This is not the only time a Nintendo system has seen surging business in the late product cycle. Even the N64 for the fiscal year ending March 2000 put up its 2nd best year in North America. Interestingly the Super NES really didn't have a great late generation in the US in terms of sales, guess Sega really bit into their business hard or something. 

@Torpoleon ,
Given that we are in the 7th year of the Nintendo Switch and that we are approx. one year from the release of the Nintendo NG, I understand why you think that it will not sell as many consoles as both @ShadowLink93 and I think it will.
But the Nintendo Switch has been selling on par with itself compared to last year. It is only down by 10.4% according to https://www.vgchartz.com/article/458785/ps5-vs-xbox-series-xs-vs-switch-2023-worldwide-sales-comparison-charts-through-september/. For being in it's 7th year is really impressive. Lets say that the Switch continues on this -10% pattern through the rest of 2023. That means the Switch in Q3 of 2023-2024 (the holiday season) will sell 7.39 million (8.22 - 0.822).
Last year Nintendo had Pokémon Scarlet and Violet as their holiday seller. Pokémon sold 10 million copies in the opening weekend alone, which most likely helped sell an additional 2-3 million Switch consoles.
This year Nintendo has Super Mario Bros. Wonder as the holiday seller. As of the 7th of November, 2023 it had sold 4.3 million units. Admittedly, not quite of a frontload seller, but 2D Mario games are evergreen titles that sell lots over long periods of time. I personally think Mario Wonder will help contribute to sell 2-3 million Switch consoles. The other 5.4 million will be sold by kids reaching ~10 years of age and showing interest in videogames and parents wanting their kid to not grow up playing games rated M.

This is an interesting perspective, because Switch really is a huge cash cow.  After watching that last Direct, I think they are planning a holiday 2024 release for Switch 2.  However, they could always choose to push that back a few months, because Switch 1 is making so much profit.  Considering they've never cut the price, hardware margins must be amazing for them right now.  They could really coast on the smaller games, ports, and 3rd party games that they are already planning for 2024 and early 2025.  Maybe throw in something like a Zelda All Stars collection for holiday 2024, so they have a holiday title.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.  Switch 1 is known to be the most profitable system of all time.  I gotta think that the business side is reluctant to replace it.  Furakawa is a business guy, and the temptation to let Switch be the main system for another holiday has gotta be huge.  On the other hand, the software shown off in that last Direct says that they are planning on a holiday 2024 release for Switch 2.  The most likely scenario is they are just going to stick with that plan.

Keep in mind that while the switch is only down 10.4%. That is largely due to Japan and other Asian countries. Q3 relies heavily on the US to make up a lot of sales in exchange for slow Q1 and Q2. Q1 and Q2 had the Americas down 7% and 35% YoY respectively. We don't have a clue which way the Americas will swing for Q3 but being down 20% could mean a loss of over .6m sales YoY. In fact the same exact thing happened last holiday season, selling about 20% less than the year before.

Last years Q3 YoY for reference.

Japan 2.29m > 2.09m (-9%)
Americas 3.80m > 3.07m (-19%)
Europe 3.38m > 2.42m (-28%)
Others 1.19m > 0.65m (-45%)
Total 10.67m > 8.22m (-23%)