Shtinamin_ said:
@Torpoleon ,
Given that we are in the 7th year of the Nintendo Switch and that we are approx. one year from the release of the Nintendo NG, I understand why you think that it will not sell as many consoles as both @ShadowLink93 and I think it will.
But the Nintendo Switch has been selling on par with itself compared to last year. It is only down by 10.4% according to https://www.vgchartz.com/article/458785/ps5-vs-xbox-series-xs-vs-switch-2023-worldwide-sales-comparison-charts-through-september/. For being in it's 7th year is really impressive. Lets say that the Switch continues on this -10% pattern through the rest of 2023. That means the Switch in Q3 of 2023-2024 (the holiday season) will sell 7.39 million (8.22 - 0.822).
Last year Nintendo had Pokémon Scarlet and Violet as their holiday seller. Pokémon sold 10 million copies in the opening weekend alone, which most likely helped sell an additional 2-3 million Switch consoles.
This year Nintendo has Super Mario Bros. Wonder as the holiday seller. As of the 7th of November, 2023 it had sold 4.3 million units. Admittedly, not quite of a frontload seller, but 2D Mario games are evergreen titles that sell lots over long periods of time. I personally think Mario Wonder will help contribute to sell 2-3 million Switch consoles. The other 5.4 million will be sold by kids reaching ~10 years of age and showing interest in videogames and parents wanting their kid to not grow up playing games rated M.
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Keep in mind that while the switch is only down 10.4%. That is largely due to Japan and other Asian countries. Q3 relies heavily on the US to make up a lot of sales in exchange for slow Q1 and Q2. Q1 and Q2 had the Americas down 7% and 35% YoY respectively. We don't have a clue which way the Americas will swing for Q3 but being down 20% could mean a loss of over .6m sales YoY. In fact the same exact thing happened last holiday season, selling about 20% less than the year before.
Last years Q3 YoY for reference.
Japan 2.29m > 2.09m (-9%)
Americas 3.80m > 3.07m (-19%)
Europe 3.38m > 2.42m (-28%)
Others 1.19m > 0.65m (-45%)
Total 10.67m > 8.22m (-23%)
