@Torpoleon ,
Given that we are in the 7th year of the Nintendo Switch and that we are approx. one year from the release of the Nintendo NG, I understand why you think that it will not sell as many consoles as both @ShadowLink93 and I think it will.
But the Nintendo Switch has been selling on par with itself compared to last year. It is only down by 10.4% according to https://www.vgchartz.com/article/458785/ps5-vs-xbox-series-xs-vs-switch-2023-worldwide-sales-comparison-charts-through-september/. For being in it's 7th year is really impressive. Lets say that the Switch continues on this -10% pattern through the rest of 2023. That means the Switch in Q3 of 2023-2024 (the holiday season) will sell 7.39 million (8.22 - 0.822).
Last year Nintendo had Pokémon Scarlet and Violet as their holiday seller. Pokémon sold 10 million copies in the opening weekend alone, which most likely helped sell an additional 2-3 million Switch consoles.
This year Nintendo has Super Mario Bros. Wonder as the holiday seller. As of the 7th of November, 2023 it had sold 4.3 million units. Admittedly, not quite of a frontload seller, but 2D Mario games are evergreen titles that sell lots over long periods of time. I personally think Mario Wonder will help contribute to sell 2-3 million Switch consoles. The other 5.4 million will be sold by kids reaching ~10 years of age and showing interest in videogames and parents wanting their kid to not grow up playing games rated M.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)
PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)
Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)
"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.
