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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Farsala on 07 May 2023
farlaff said:
Farsala said:

Something you are missing is that PS2 didn't take 11 years to hit 150m in most markets. The console had very late launches in a ton of territories. starting with Japan and then 9 months later in America and then Europe. Korea and Taiwan didn't launch until 2002. India and China didn't launch until 2003. Brazil didn't launch until 2009 (!) . Many other markets like the Middle East also had late launches.

This is where the origination of the myth "Ps consoles have good legs" comes from, and why a lot of people expected the Ps4 to sell much better than it did, simply due to the launch timings of these different consoles. Ps4 having a global launch made it easy to break shipment records, even in "launch aligned" comparisons.

This "launch" thing is not exactly realistic. Everyone here in Brazil has and has had access to consoles right at launch, albeit by paying ridiculously high import prices. That Sony (and the others) brought outdated machines "officially" to Brazil when people were playing Wii and PS360 for years is not an actual measure. 

Doesn't change the fact that actual launches leads to better sales in most countries mentioned. I am sure if we checked 2009 when ps2 launched in Brazil we would see a strange uptick in shipments for the ps2.



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mjk45 on 07 May 2023
javi741 said:
Soundwave said:

You could say the same for the PS4 before the PS5 was announced ... it was selling just fine too. 

I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding by a lot of people on how hardware design and delivery works too. 

Nintendo doesn't just sit around waiting for sales to decline to a certain point and then pick up the phone and call Nvidia and say "OK now, we need a new system, have it delivered to us in 12 months please". 

Like that's an impossible way for it to work. Beyond design time issues, beyond the obvious fact that it takes 2 1/2-3 years to have software ready, there's manufacturing issues too, you don't just show up to TSMC on a Sunday and say "well we decided now to have a new system, can you whip us up something" as if you're ordering a pizza at your uncle's corner store or fresh baked cookies from the supermarket. 

Supply lines are tight, these deals have to be set in place years in advance, not even "well 12 months in advance should be good enough". The decision on when to launch Switch successor likely was made 2-3 years ago already and deals are set in place. It can be changed a little bit but not in the way I think people here imagine. 

Also I don't think Nintendo wants to be sitting on a platform for years that is progressively selling less and less every year. They don't have two hardware lines anymore, you don't want to be in a decline phase of your business for multiple years if you don't really have to be. 

The difference between the PS4 and the Switch is that the PS4 had a legitimate competitor it needed to keep up with, which is Xbox. PS4 was selling fine but Sony didn't want to have their marketshare slip away by allowing Microsoft to get a headstart for the 9th generation. Sony didn't want to risk looking like the platform with inferior games & graphics compared to Xbox and PC just cause they wanted to stick with the PS4. The primary reason the console manufacturers release successors is not because it's necessarily more profitable to upgrade, but to keep up with their competitors in terms of the quality and performance of software produced to maintain interest in the brand.

I'm sure most companies would prefer to stick to making software for older hardware with a large install base indefinitely since they won't need to spend millions of dollars and years of work to create a new console and create a large install base from scratch, and launching a new console always brings unknown risks. 

However, console companies don't do that cause their competitors are always trying to one-up them when it comes to game quality and performance and they don't want to allow their marketshare slip due to looking outdated. This is why the PS5 released even though the PS4 was doing well because they didn't wanna allow Xbox or PC to steal their marketshare just cause Sony refused to upgrade.

Nintendo is not in Sony's situation, they have a monopoly in their own hybrid console sector they created. The release of the PS5 and Series X didnt stop people from buying the Switch like crazy, and there's no legit competitor in the handheld space and nothing looks like it could come close to competing with the Switch. This also Nintendo's 2nd biggest install base they've ever had and easily the most profitable when it comes to software sales, so I'm sure Nintendo would be ok to keep the Switch alive and their primary system for several years as long as the software sales are there, which will be due to Switch's large install base.

Yea hardware sales are dropping for the Switch but Nintendo makes most of their profit on software, so smaller hardware sales won't be a major detriment to their business as long as the software sales are there. Nintendo has no competitors to keep up with for them to release a successor anytime soon. They'd likely for now rather take advantage of the Switch's large install base and remain profitable off the software sales instead of risking releasing a new platform that's far from guaranteed to be as successful.This is what Nintendo did with the 1989 Gameboy, although it was super underpowered even going into the late-90s. Nintendo still didn't release a successor cause they had a huge monopoly on the handheld market and would've rather just stick to their current hardware.

Yes I get that consoles and manufacturing chips takes years and needs to be done years in advanced before they release the console, but that doesn't mean that just cause Nintendo is finishing up their system behind the scenes that they have to release it as soon as its finished. I'm sure Nintendo already has a good idea of what the successor will be like at this time, but they could easily just sit on the idea indefinitely until they feel it's right to release the successor.

The fact is Sony could have held back the release date and got PS4 close to 130 million sales and Xbox would have waited using the we release when they do mantra they talked about when asked about the Xbox one release. with MS's belief that the benefits gained from a standalone console release and the fresh air it gives favours Sony more than them.

Now Nintendo while there are many factors that go into a Switch 2 release, in Nintendo's eyes one of if not the main questions to be answered in regards to release would by what date they have a feature ready that can be seen as a continuation of their history with innovation either by way of adding something new to the device or if not new is at the the very least a major enhancement.

Last edited by mjk45 - on 07 May 2023

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Soundwave on 07 May 2023

The funny thing about the Game Boy is Nintendo was not only trying to kill it off in 1995, Yamauchi actually cancelled the Game Boy before they released it, lol. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 08 May 2023

archbrix on 08 May 2023

Just because the Switch isn’t the biggest selling console a year anymore doesn’t mean that Nintendo is in a weak position at all for 2023. It reminds me of back when the NES and the Game Boy were able to just hang tough and persevere through all kinds of competition - some of it being very successful like the Mega Drive/Genesis - because of such a robust library of games steadily arriving.

This year in 2023 is no exception: So far we have Metroid Prime Remastered, Advance Wars 1&2 and soon, Zelda, with Pikmin 4 in July. That is pretty jam-packed with Nintendo IPs for an aging system in what some consider a transition year - something I just don’t buy. Specifically, I think there are new Mario and Donkey Kong Switch games already pretty much finished. Nintendo has been able to manage releases very well this gen thanks to having to support only one system now, so it’s not about taking resources away from Switch 2 development. We know the next Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Animal Crossing and probably 3D Mario are all full-steam ahead on Switch 2 and have been for a while now, but this is what I think Nintendo’s schedule could look like that would pretty much guarantee a >15m fiscal year finish for Switch:

May - Zelda
June - A Direct with news, possibly with another GC shadow drop
July - Pikmin 4
August - ?
Sep - New Mario game (probably 2D) to coincide with the home release of the Mario movie around the same time
Oct - ?
Nov - another Pokemon remake (Gold & Silver?)
Dec - nothing
Jan - Mar quarter - New Donkey Kong game to go along with the DK theme park expansion next year

Consider that both the 3DS and PS2 had years after their peak where sales actually increased a little over the previous year. While I wouldn’t necessarily expect 18m+ for Switch next fiscal, it wouldn’t surprise me if sales were 16m-17m in this scenario. This would allow these games the opportunity to sell well throughout 2024, as Nintendo readies Switch 2 with a likely June '24 announcement followed by a WW September '24 release.

Obviously >140m is inevitable for the Switch at this point no matter what but if Nintendo puts in the effort and gives the Switch the twilight years it deserves, I believe it will result in the system passing 160m in the end.

Last edited by archbrix - on 08 May 2023

farlaff on 08 May 2023

I kind of think that does not really matters anymore at this point. Switch is probably the most successful console ever from a financial standpoint (I don't have the numbers, though; wouldn't mind taking a look at those), because it has had no formal pricing reduction since release, which is unheard of, and runs as a great consumer product even today mostly on the power of the software library (there are more powerful handheld devices than in 2017, for instance, so it is not based on the powerful handheld idea that some people clinged to in the past).



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Zippy6 on 09 May 2023

The forecast of 15m for this Fiscal Year seems to put the idea of a new revision or a price cut out of the picture. 140.6m by March 2024.

If the Switch 2 is coming in 2024 as I expect then it seems 160m would now be a tough ask. It'd likely be at around 145m shipped by September 2024 just before the successor launches.



javi741 on 09 May 2023

Welp it's now confirmed that the Switch successor won't launch anytime before April 2024. It was pretty surprising the amount of people who thought the Switch successor would launch at the end of 2023 or early 2024. If that were the case we'd see a ton of rumors and leaks at this point and Nintendo would need to begin marketing for the system now if it had that release window which wouldn't be feasible to do just a few months after TOTK releases.

However, what has been surprising me is that Nintendo isn't gonna release a new Switch model/revision. Nintendo has shown in their past that they love milking successful consoles like crazy like the DS,3DS,Gameboy,ect.. and they would release a ton of new models for those consoles even AFTER the successor released like the Gameboy Micro and New 2DS Xl, and many of Nintendo's new models don't really add much new but they still release them. I'm surprised Nintendo isn't doing this with the Switch in the near future especially with sales declining. I think a TV only Switch would be very nice, Switch Oled Lite, or potentially a straight up Switch pro, there's many possibilities for Nintendo to do revisions its surprising Nintendo won't do that in the near future.

Imo, it's also looking like that the Switch's lifetime sales minimum will be 145M rather than 140M. Nintendo is forecasting a 15M FY which would place the Switch at close to 141M units by March 2024. While I do agree that the 15M goal is a bit optimistic, I'm expecting more like a 13-14M FY, that would still put the Switch in between 138-140M by March 2024. And the Switch definitely won't fizzle out super quickly after March 2024, even if the successor releases in Holiday 2024 it could still easily get 6-10M sales at the minimum after March 2024. Which places the Switch's sales minimum at 145M and definitely still has a good shot of outselling the PS2 depending on how Nintendo treats the Switch in its twilight years. So the race for the greatest selling console of all time will be very close.

Last edited by javi741 - on 09 May 2023

Soundwave on 09 May 2023
javi741 said:

Welp it's now confirmed that the Switch successor won't launch anytime before April 2024. It was pretty surprising the amount of people who thought the Switch successor would launch at the end of 2023 or early 2024. If that were the case we'd see a ton of rumors and leaks at this point and Nintendo would need to begin marketing for the system now if it had that release window which wouldn't be feasible to do just a few months after TOTK releases.

However, what has been surprising me is that Nintendo isn't gonna release a new Switch model/revision. Nintendo has shown in their past that they love milking successful consoles like crazy like the DS,3DS,Gameboy,ect.. and they would release a ton of new models for those consoles even AFTER the successor released like the Gameboy Micro and New 2DS Xl, and many of Nintendo's new models don't really add much new but they still release them. I'm surprised Nintendo isn't doing this with the Switch in the near future especially with sales declining. I think a TV only Switch would be very nice, Switch Oled Lite, or potentially a straight up Switch pro, there's many possibilities for Nintendo to do revisions its surprising Nintendo won't do that in the near future.

2024 launch for Switch 2 has looked obvious for a while now. They're not releasing any more Switch models because the next one coming is the Switch 2 and they don't want to screw around with that. 

If Switch 2 was 2023, they always would have delayed Zelda: ToTK to launch alongside it, it would make no sense not to. 

Maybe after Switch 2 they might do something like a final definitive Switch Lite revision with a larger screen or something but other than that, think the current Switch is basically done. Switch OLED is the Switch Pro/New 3DS XL equivalent for the Switch. 



archbrix on 09 May 2023
Zippy6 said:

The forecast of 15m for this Fiscal Year seems to put the idea of a new revision or a price cut out of the picture. 140.6m by March 2024.

If the Switch 2 is coming in 2024 as I expect then it seems 160m would now be a tough ask. It'd likely be at around 145m shipped by September 2024 just before the successor launches.

I agree with you on almost everything here, but do you really not expect 160m+ in this scenario?

Five million Switch's from April '24- September '24 is about a 195,000/week average. Applying just that average for the remaining two quarters puts Switch at 150m shipped by March of 2025, right around its 8th b-day.  With Nintendo obviously planning big enough to expect a 15m fiscal '24 (which appears to be completely software driven) I would expect Switch to manage 10m fiscal next year, falling right in line with the aforementioned scenario.

I believe the 3DS sold ~9m or so after the Switch launched; what do you think Switch's final numbers will be?



Zippy6 on 09 May 2023
archbrix said:
Zippy6 said:

The forecast of 15m for this Fiscal Year seems to put the idea of a new revision or a price cut out of the picture. 140.6m by March 2024.

If the Switch 2 is coming in 2024 as I expect then it seems 160m would now be a tough ask. It'd likely be at around 145m shipped by September 2024 just before the successor launches.

I agree with you on almost everything here, but do you really not expect 160m+ in this scenario?

Five million Switch's from April '24- September '24 is about a 195,000/week average. Applying just that average for the remaining two quarters puts Switch at 150m shipped by March of 2025, right around its 8th b-day.  With Nintendo obviously planning big enough to expect a 15m fiscal '24 (which appears to be completely software driven) I would expect Switch to manage 10m fiscal next year, falling right in line with the aforementioned scenario.

I believe the 3DS sold ~9m or so after the Switch launched; what do you think Switch's final numbers will be?

I expect switch to sell roughly 10m after the successor launches. Mainly because I don't think they will cut the price of the Switch to keep it selling. They'll push the next-gen adoption just like Sony dropped the PS4 hard.

3DS had a very large difference in price to the Switch (The 2DS less than a third of the Switch price) and a different library of games that weren't playable on the Switch. Switch 2 will be too close in price and play all of the Switch's games so the switch won't validate its existence post successor like the 3ds did, but will still have equal or better post-successor sales simply due to being a better selling console.