Great post, some actual nuance given here. 

Far too many times people get caught up in expensive console bad, cheap console good, or something when the reality is there's 50 different factors and a lot of people also don't even understand the market they're in today is vastly different from 10 years ago, 15 years ago, 20 years ago, etc. 

A lot of people on this thread seem to be overestimating how early the Switch successor will launch, feel like most people clearly haven't seen Nintendo's history when it comes to the timeframe of announcing their successor to release.

The amount of people saying that the successor will launch in late-2023 to early 2024 are ridiculous. No way Nintendo will announce then release the successor immediately after TOTK for release in late 2023. Nintendo in their past minimum announces the existence of their successor one year before it actually releases, but more likely they give a two year window between announcement to release. To expect Nintendo to announce the console this year AND release it late this year is insane, especially right after tears of the kindom which is supposed to be a huge system seller for the Switch. Early 2024 seems highly unlikely too.

I also mentioned this earlier, but if the successor were to release within the next 12 months we should be seeing tons of leaks and rumors right now regarding the successor, which is typical for a console that's right around the corner, but we haven't at all yet. There's no signs the Switch successor is releasing anytime soon.

Now I think a big reason why people are overestimating how early the successor will release is because Switch sales are dropping and that Nintendo consoles typically release relatively earlier compared to their competitors even when the console is successful.

While this is true, the Switch is in a totally different position then successful consoles like the DS & Wii were towards the end of their life. One of the big reasons why Nintendo rushed the Wii & DS successors despite the success of the DS & Wii was because they were worried about the competition eating up their marketshare. For the Wii, Microsoft & Sony already released their answers to the Wii's motion controls with the PS Move & Kinect which is part of the reason why Wii sales were falling quickly after 2010 since their wasn't really that new distinguishing factor with the Wii anymore outside of Nintendo games, Nintendo rushed to move on since they knew that motion controls were getting old quick with their competitors using their idea. For the DS, Nintendo rushed out the 3DS to not let Sony get a headstart with the PS Vita and to keep up with the fast growing mobile market that was projected to replace dedicated handhelds at one point.
Even with the GBA despite how successful it was doing, they cut it's life short as the primary handheld to having a 3 year lifespan just cause Nintendo was so worried about Sony stealing away their marketshare in the handheld space with the PSP, which shows how seriously Nintendo reacts to their competition when they percieve them as a threat.

The primary reason why all 3 console manufacturers release successors is to keep up with their competitiors when it comes to gameplay performance and features, not neccesarily because releasing a successor is more profitable in of itself, these console companies make most their profit off of software sales and could indefinetely make profit even with ancient outdated hardware if they wanted to as long as the software is there. They don't do that though because if their competitiors keep upgrading their hardware with much better looking games and offer more gameplay opportunities, the company with the ancient hardware will offer software that looks inferior and as a result software sales would drop and overall interest in the brand.

However, Nintendo with the Switch clearly isn't in a position where they need to rush out a successor. This is the first time since the OG Gameboy 30 years ago that they have a near monopoly in the handheld gaming space, Sony isn't releasing any legit competitors to the Switch (the rumored cloud PS handheld is not a legit competitor) and the mobile gaming market is no longer percieved as a threat to the Switch either. We've already seen that the PS5 & Xbox SX are not driving away interest away from the switch either, and software sales are still thriving and Nintendo is more than profitable right now.

Even with Switch sales falling, they could just keep producing software with the huge Switch install base indefinetely and still remain profitable and not worry about competitiors stealing their thunder. This is exactly what Nintendo did with the OG Gameboy where Nintendo had virtually no reason to risk releasing a successor when they already had a huge install base that will keep software sales high and Nintendo's profits high.

Releasing a successor is always risky and expensive for any console manufacturer, jst cause your current system is successful does not automatically mean the successor will be. We clearly saw this with the Wii & Wii U where within a matter of one generation Nintendo went from having their best-selling home console ever to their worst selling with their worst profit margins in 30+ years.

Nintendo will have to be even more cautious with releasing the Switch successor because the Switch is now their only platform they have, they don't have another succesful platform that will act as a safety net for Nintendo in-case the Switch 2 fails. Just like how the 3DS acted like Nintendo's saftety net while the Wii U was failing. Nintendo doesn't have that option this generation which makes me believe they are less willing to rush a successor when their current platform is more than successful.

This is why I'm expecting the Switch successor to release at least 2025 or later.

@javi741
I don't see Switch 2 coming out at any point this year, but I don't find 2024 unlikely. When is the last time Nintendo has been this silent about their second half of the year when we're already a third of the year into the year? If this is a common occurrence for them, please correct me.
We only have Pikmin 4 in July for the entire second half of the year. Metroid Prime 4 probably isn't releasing in 2023, but maybe Detective Pikachu will release this year. And I'm sure there's at least one first-party game for this year that is still unannounced. But assuming we only get about 2-3 first-party games after Zelda, why would Nintendo have such a sluggish second half of the year unless a successor is launching in 2024? I know Tears of the Kingdom is huge, Fire Emblem Engage has been successful, and Pikmin 4 will succeed. But it just seems like a sparse second half if a successor is waiting until 2025 or beyond.

In 2020, Nintendo didn't announce their games for the 2nd half of the year til September 2020 when they announced Mario 3D All Stars was releasing two weeks later and they later also announced Age of Calamity late in 2020 as well, also other games like Pikimin 3 Deluxe. It isn't new for Nintendo to announce their 2nd half later in the year, and it would make sense why Nintendo would want to do that cause they want all the hype and fanfare focused on Tears of the Kingdom, cause if Nintendo announced other major titles in the 2nd half of the year, some potential TOTK consumers might skip it just to save up for the 2nd half games.

This is also far from the first time we've seen pretty empty 2nd half for a Nintendo console.

I'm not ruling out a 2024 release. However, the earliest I could foresee the successor releasing is the 2nd half of 2024, I think late 2023 and early 2024 are out of the equation to be honest. I'm more leaning to a 2025 release and potentially later.

As for when the NS successor will launch, just pay attention to each fiscal year results announcement and the sales forecast from now on, if it's suprisingly low/ way lower than the trend, then the launch is imminent! Looking forward to tuesday's FYQ4 results release.

Something to consider:

Nintendo seems to be doing fine right now. They have great software sales. Pretty decent hardware sales. A Billion dollar movie. A new theme park.

The one thing they need more than anything is to repeat the success of the Switch and to me that was built on a great first year of software. Zelda, Mario Kart 8DX, Mario Odyssey, Xenoblade.

So my perspective is that regardless of lagging hardware sales, I don’t believe Nintendo will release a Switch successor until they absolutely know they have 3-4 system sellers lined up for the first year. I’ve been saying Holiday 2024, but if Mario Kart 9 (or 10), a new 3D Mario, a new Monolith Soft IP, and something we haven’t heard of aren’t ready to release by Holiday 2025 I’d imagine they would delay the launch. It’s not like they’re going to lose tons of cash or even their place in a console war that they seem to have sidestepped with their hybrid form factor.

I’m sure this opinion is probably wrong in the sense that the investors will want to see consistent sales, but Nintendo could also just reassure them that the slight decline would be beneficial in the long run as they attempt to repeat the Switch’s stellar success. 

Nintendo has a completely different president in launching Switch successor too ... so I don't really think "well this is how it was done 10 years ago!" even applies now. Every president has been different in how they handle/announce new hardware launches.

Mr. Yamauchi announced the N64/Project: Reality when the Super NES was only barely 2 years old in North America and Europe, lol.

I also think the earliest for a true new console is going to be early 2025, though they could probably stretch it to early 2026. People online tend to forget we're in a tiny bubble. Most people really don't care about cutting edge graphics. They just want fun games and game sales have remained high throughout the past year. 

We've also been spoiled by insanely high console sales the past years, which lead to people online shouting for a successor after sales dropped below 20 million for the first time in years. The second the switch was not the best selling console of the month Nintendo needs to replace the system.

I do see the possibility of another Switch revision, a pro model if you will, releasing this year, with AI upscaling of older titles, a definitive Switch. As I also believe when they do release a new console it's going to again change the way we interact with games.

In regards to sales this is a platform in its seventh year at 124m, these are sales would be competitive for any other platforms still in their prime years well below 100m. Another point is the Switch successor would essentially be a Gen 10 platform under the usual definition the is no need to rush it out especially on the so called premise some about tech it makes better sense to let the platform carry on in order to open up more options for tech in the next one and give launch year titles more time, last time they rushed out to match tech like people said we got the chaos in the WiiU's run they're better off taking their time as they have time.

You could say the same for the PS4 before the PS5 was announced ... it was selling just fine too. 

I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding by a lot of people on how hardware design and delivery works too. 

Nintendo doesn't just sit around waiting for sales to decline to a certain point and then pick up the phone and call Nvidia and say "OK now, we need a new system, have it delivered to us in 12 months please". 

Like that's an impossible way for it to work. Beyond design time issues, beyond the obvious fact that it takes 2 1/2-3 years to have software ready, there's manufacturing issues too, you don't just show up to TSMC on a Sunday and say "well we decided now to have a new system, can you whip us up something" as if you're ordering a pizza at your uncle's corner store or fresh baked cookies from the supermarket. 

Supply lines are tight, these deals have to be set in place years in advance, not even "well 12 months in advance should be good enough". The decision on when to launch Switch successor likely was made 2-3 years ago already and deals are set in place. It can be changed a little bit but not in the way I think people here imagine. 

Also I don't think Nintendo wants to be sitting on a platform for years that is progressively selling less and less every year. They don't have two hardware lines anymore, you don't want to be in a decline phase of your business for multiple years if you don't really have to be.