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A lot of people on this thread seem to be overestimating how early the Switch successor will launch, feel like most people clearly haven't seen Nintendo's history when it comes to the timeframe of announcing their successor to release.
The amount of people saying that the successor will launch in late-2023 to early 2024 are ridiculous. No way Nintendo will announce then release the successor immediately after TOTK for release in late 2023. Nintendo in their past minimum announces the existence of their successor one year before it actually releases, but more likely they give a two year window between announcement to release. To expect Nintendo to announce the console this year AND release it late this year is insane, especially right after tears of the kindom which is supposed to be a huge system seller for the Switch. Early 2024 seems highly unlikely too.
I also mentioned this earlier, but if the successor were to release within the next 12 months we should be seeing tons of leaks and rumors right now regarding the successor, which is typical for a console that's right around the corner, but we haven't at all yet. There's no signs the Switch successor is releasing anytime soon.
Now I think a big reason why people are overestimating how early the successor will release is because Switch sales are dropping and that Nintendo consoles typically release relatively earlier compared to their competitors even when the console is successful.
While this is true, the Switch is in a totally different position then successful consoles like the DS & Wii were towards the end of their life. One of the big reasons why Nintendo rushed the Wii & DS successors despite the success of the DS & Wii was because they were worried about the competition eating up their marketshare. For the Wii, Microsoft & Sony already released their answers to the Wii's motion controls with the PS Move & Kinect which is part of the reason why Wii sales were falling quickly after 2010 since their wasn't really that new distinguishing factor with the Wii anymore outside of Nintendo games, Nintendo rushed to move on since they knew that motion controls were getting old quick with their competitors using their idea. For the DS, Nintendo rushed out the 3DS to not let Sony get a headstart with the PS Vita and to keep up with the fast growing mobile market that was projected to replace dedicated handhelds at one point.
Even with the GBA despite how successful it was doing, they cut it's life short as the primary handheld to having a 3 year lifespan just cause Nintendo was so worried about Sony stealing away their marketshare in the handheld space with the PSP, which shows how seriously Nintendo reacts to their competition when they percieve them as a threat.
The primary reason why all 3 console manufacturers release successors is to keep up with their competitiors when it comes to gameplay performance and features, not neccesarily because releasing a successor is more profitable in of itself, these console companies make most their profit off of software sales and could indefinetely make profit even with ancient outdated hardware if they wanted to as long as the software is there. They don't do that though because if their competitiors keep upgrading their hardware with much better looking games and offer more gameplay opportunities, the company with the ancient hardware will offer software that looks inferior and as a result software sales would drop and overall interest in the brand.
However, Nintendo with the Switch clearly isn't in a position where they need to rush out a successor. This is the first time since the OG Gameboy 30 years ago that they have a near monopoly in the handheld gaming space, Sony isn't releasing any legit competitors to the Switch (the rumored cloud PS handheld is not a legit competitor) and the mobile gaming market is no longer percieved as a threat to the Switch either. We've already seen that the PS5 & Xbox SX are not driving away interest away from the switch either, and software sales are still thriving and Nintendo is more than profitable right now.
Even with Switch sales falling, they could just keep producing software with the huge Switch install base indefinetely and still remain profitable and not worry about competitiors stealing their thunder. This is exactly what Nintendo did with the OG Gameboy where Nintendo had virtually no reason to risk releasing a successor when they already had a huge install base that will keep software sales high and Nintendo's profits high.
Releasing a successor is always risky and expensive for any console manufacturer, jst cause your current system is successful does not automatically mean the successor will be. We clearly saw this with the Wii & Wii U where within a matter of one generation Nintendo went from having their best-selling home console ever to their worst selling with their worst profit margins in 30+ years.
Nintendo will have to be even more cautious with releasing the Switch successor because the Switch is now their only platform they have, they don't have another succesful platform that will act as a safety net for Nintendo in-case the Switch 2 fails. Just like how the 3DS acted like Nintendo's saftety net while the Wii U was failing. Nintendo doesn't have that option this generation which makes me believe they are less willing to rush a successor when their current platform is more than successful.
This is why I'm expecting the Switch successor to release at least 2025 or later.
