Something to consider:
Nintendo seems to be doing fine right now. They have great software sales. Pretty decent hardware sales. A Billion dollar movie. A new theme park.
The one thing they need more than anything is to repeat the success of the Switch and to me that was built on a great first year of software. Zelda, Mario Kart 8DX, Mario Odyssey, Xenoblade.
So my perspective is that regardless of lagging hardware sales, I don’t believe Nintendo will release a Switch successor until they absolutely know they have 3-4 system sellers lined up for the first year. I’ve been saying Holiday 2024, but if Mario Kart 9 (or 10), a new 3D Mario, a new Monolith Soft IP, and something we haven’t heard of aren’t ready to release by Holiday 2025 I’d imagine they would delay the launch. It’s not like they’re going to lose tons of cash or even their place in a console war that they seem to have sidestepped with their hybrid form factor.
I’m sure this opinion is probably wrong in the sense that the investors will want to see consistent sales, but Nintendo could also just reassure them that the slight decline would be beneficial in the long run as they attempt to repeat the Switch’s stellar success.
