I can imagine Nintendo supporting both the Switch 2 and the Switch for several years. There will be quite a bit of room to reduce the Switch Lite down in price, effectively making the Switch almost a dedicated handheld once again. I could see families that couldn’t jump in at $179 per child could pick up a few Switch Lites for the kids at $99 a pop.

Someone can let me know whether this is financially feasible, but we’ve certainly seen prices get down to these levels in the past.

As a budget handheld the Switch Lite could have a very long life.

No way that Nintendo announces the Switch 2 and release this year and even early next year is a huge stretch. There's never been a Nintendo console in the past that had shorter than a 1-Year Window between reveal to release. While yes the Switch was officially unveiled 5 months before release, we knew about the existence of the Switch as "Nintendo NX" two years before it released. Nintendo hasn't even acknowledged the existence of their next hardware yet and hasn't given any codename for their next console. For them to announce it and only 3 months later to release in 2023 would be absurd. 

Plus if new hardware was right around the corner like by the end of 2023, we should be getting tons of leaks and rumors by now regarding the next system and how it'll release by the end of the year. We saw it with every new release of a Nintendo console including iterations where rumors of the Switch Oled and Lite where very persistent in the months leading up to their announcement. There's been very few major reliable leaks and rumors regarding the Switch successor for it to release by the end of this year or even early next year. 

The earliest it could release is late 2024, but personally, I'm predicting 2025.

Honestly I'm starting to doubt that the Switch will get any price cuts for the entirety of its lifespan. It's been 6 years and the Switch still hasn't received any price cut despite not being that cheap at 300$. Of course a big reason for that is the historic sales numbers it had from launch to now and having sales peak much later than other Nintendo consoles, but I have a feeling Nintendo would rather prioritize profit per console than sales this gen, they did it with the Wii U where despite the poor sales it didn't get any more major price cuts after 2013. And plus clearly Nintendo see that the price hasn't been driving people away from the switch cause it sold more than all but two other consoles, and may very well sell 140 Million with zero price cuts, at that point most people who want a switch would likely already have purchased one and price cuts won't do much to increase sales beyond that point.

It's debatable if Nintendo could've turned a profit with the Switch Lite at the point of sale for only $100 back in 2019. And I would not have expected it that low at all, since it's $200. But now? It's probably getting closer. Switch has had no price cuts yet, so a potential price cut would probably wait until the successor launches (like you mentioned). 

The flaw in this argument is thinking Switch games will sell the successor, only people who would buy the next platform due to BC would be people who already have the Switch which doesn't really mean anything in grabbing those extra sales to 160m. Nintendo simply will wait if the prices are too high they can afford to do so because part of the userbase for their platform is a monopoly on the portable market who for them Switch successor is the only platform they can turn to after Switch and the wait benefits Nintendo in lowering the price as their chosen tech becomes more financially viable and it gives their software more development time. The portable market is also were most of the sales pushing towards 160m will come from as portables have the dynamic of more than one per household unlike home platforms this is why Switch lite was brought out.

I don't even think 2024 is guaranteed of when they'd launch the next platform either tbh as I can see it being early 2025 in the same window which they launched the Switch, as for your numbers under current momentum the Switch will likely be around 135m or so as the holiday season begins, I also don't see the platform only selling 10m next year either.

20-25% down was still 19m or so last year and by the math would be 17m this year and 14m or so next year that's 31m which with current shipments from the end of December would equal 153m that's contradicts your prediction.

To further highlight this the are leaks you cannot stop for example manufacturers of certain parts like when the Switch was coming we didn't know the exact specs but companies who provided things like the cartridges and such had manufacturing orders and such come up. 

For the first 2 months Switch is down 23% YoY. Even if it went from being down 23% to being flat it would still only be at 132.3m by the end of October and 135.2m at the end of November after black Friday.

In reality it's going to continue to be down YoY with perhaps May as the exception. From Famitsu numbers we already know that Japan is down 33.5% YoY for March.

The 10m figure for 2024 is if a Switch 2 releases in 2024, which seems like a realistic number imo.

What I'd like to understand is: who that hasn't already bought the Switch for Pokemon, Mario, Zelda and other franchises has not already done so? It's at 122M and at a high price.

Without a new SKU, how could it reach 160M? Yes TotG will be huge and ignite excitement, as would Prime 4 and the upcoming new Mario, but most interested would already own one.

And like some have said, the Switch seems to not be like a DS where there could be many sold per houseold except in rare cases. It seems like there may be a cap somewhere.

Still like was said earier regardless of its final HW sales numbers, it will have generated massive HW and SW profits.

A too big emphasis here is put on HW sales, but what Nintendo can do with the Switch is use it as a money-making machine by pumping out more great games and selling them to the 125M+ already owned consoles. That makes the most sense to me, and so a drop in HW sales should not warrant the announcement of their successor, rather a drop in SW sales should be used as the litmus test.

Black Friday onward is when sales pick up and the start of the holidays if it is 135m from being down 23% that backs what I'm pointing it because Switch will sell a further 2-3m after that that puts the Switch at 137-138m by the end of this year, being down 20-25% YOY is still 17m that continuing next year would be 14m which as I pointed out to someone else earlier that is 31m that puts the Switch at 153m by the end of next. It's down in Japan according to Famitsu but is still the top selling platform there by a significant margin Switch has gone from extraordinary sales to normal level of sales which for at platform that is seven years old bolds well for it's LT sales.

I'll go with my theory that the successor will be marketed first as a pro model for the Switch line. The Switch still got juice to receive some heavy exclusives, like the next mario kart wouldn't hurt the successor if it is released on Switch, they can later add Dlc exclusive content for the successor for example.

Imagine this situation: the gamers that been following the recent news and rumors could perceive the pro model as the potential successor, the momentum that would be generated in the stores can be huge, some parents that are looking for gifts will see the fuss and maybe grab a switch since the entry price of the successor can keep them away, giving a small boost for the Switch.

I kinda suck with predictions and maybe my reasoning of the successor using a pro illusion to keep a small pace of exclusive content in its first year or two isn't that good for the 160M goal, but we will see.... or not.