| Zippy6 said: 3DS benefitted in two ways that allowed it to keep selling. The Switch did not play 3DS games and a 3DS model (2DS) was as low as $79 RRP, less than a third of the price of the new console. So a different library and a very different price bracket meaning Switch didn't make the 3ds redundant. Assuming the next console is the Switch 2 and it is BC I expect Switch sales to fall very quickly once it's successor is released. Just like the PS4 I don't believe we'll see a significant price cut for the Switch at the end of it's life, especially while we are currently in an unprecedented situation where console prices are actually being increased and Nintendo will want to strongly push their new hardware as a direct replacement of the Switch. Assuming no new Switch model, no significant price cut and Switch 2 in Holiday 2024: End of 2023 = 137m They absolutely can break the 160m mark if they release a new model, substantially price cut or don't release the successor until 2025 but currently I'm pretty confident none of these three things will happen. Basically the ball is in Nintendo's court, they could get the Switch to 160m easily, but I believe they'll focus strongly on quick adoption of their new system rather than using promotions to eek out a few more million from the Switch. We'll at least find out if there's a new model coming in the June direct, I imagine if there is one final hardware revision coming after all that's the date it'll be announced. |
The flaw in this argument is thinking Switch games will sell the successor, only people who would buy the next platform due to BC would be people who already have the Switch which doesn't really mean anything in grabbing those extra sales to 160m. Nintendo simply will wait if the prices are too high they can afford to do so because part of the userbase for their platform is a monopoly on the portable market who for them Switch successor is the only platform they can turn to after Switch and the wait benefits Nintendo in lowering the price as their chosen tech becomes more financially viable and it gives their software more development time. The portable market is also were most of the sales pushing towards 160m will come from as portables have the dynamic of more than one per household unlike home platforms this is why Switch lite was brought out.
I don't even think 2024 is guaranteed of when they'd launch the next platform either tbh as I can see it being early 2025 in the same window which they launched the Switch, as for your numbers under current momentum the Switch will likely be around 135m or so as the holiday season begins, I also don't see the platform only selling 10m next year either.
