The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Zippy6]

Wyrdness said:

Zippy6 said:

Assuming no new Switch model, no significant price cut and Switch 2 in Holiday 2024:

End of 2023 = 137m
End of 2024 = 147m
Final Tally = 153m-157m

They absolutely can break the 160m mark if they release a new model, substantially price cut or don't release the successor until 2025 but currently I'm pretty confident none of these three things will happen.

I don't even think 2024 is guaranteed of when they'd launch the next platform either tbh as I can see it being early 2025 in the same window which they launched the Switch, as for your numbers under current momentum the Switch will likely be around 135m or so as the holiday season begins, I also don't see the platform only selling 10m next year either.

For the first 2 months Switch is down 23% YoY. Even if it went from being down 23% to being flat it would still only be at 132.3m by the end of October and 135.2m at the end of November after black Friday.

In reality it's going to continue to be down YoY with perhaps May as the exception. From Famitsu numbers we already know that Japan is down 33.5% YoY for March.

The 10m figure for 2024 is if a Switch 2 releases in 2024, which seems like a realistic number imo.