| yo33331 said: With Switch being around 20-25% down each following year after 2020, I don't see Nintendo waiting till 2025 to release a successor. They will announce it probably by the end of this year, and they will release it either holiday this year or spring next year. Historically, after 1 or 2 years at most after the peak period of a system, Nintendo always releases next system. Now it's gone even further. However it won't be infinite. I expect Switch to finish at around 135M this year, and with successor on the market next year, I expect Switch to finish 2024 between 142 and 145M at max. Doing totally Lifetime no more than 150M. |
20-25% down was still 19m or so last year and by the math would be 17m this year and 14m or so next year that's 31m which with current shipments from the end of December would equal 153m that's contradicts your prediction.
| javi741 said: No way that Nintendo announces the Switch 2 and release this year and even early next year is a huge stretch. There's never been a Nintendo console in the past that had shorter than a 1-Year Window between reveal to release. While yes the Switch was officially unveiled 5 months before release, we knew about the existence of the Switch as "Nintendo NX" two years before it released. Nintendo hasn't even acknowledged the existence of their next hardware yet and hasn't given any codename for their next console. For them to announce it and only 3 months later to release in 2023 would be absurd. Plus if new hardware was right around the corner like by the end of 2023, we should be getting tons of leaks and rumors by now regarding the next system and how it'll release by the end of the year. We saw it with every new release of a Nintendo console including iterations where rumors of the Switch Oled and Lite where very persistent in the months leading up to their announcement. There's been very few major reliable leaks and rumors regarding the Switch successor for it to release by the end of this year or even early next year. The earliest it could release is late 2024, but personally, I'm predicting 2025. |
To further highlight this the are leaks you cannot stop for example manufacturers of certain parts like when the Switch was coming we didn't know the exact specs but companies who provided things like the cartridges and such had manufacturing orders and such come up.
