That’s never happening, unless no one releases any games for Sony platforms 

Thats unlikely.

But maybe it'll have more top 10/10 weeks than not.

Well Switch had 4, 30/30 weeks last year.  I bet it will have more than 4 this year, but I think 26 weeks going 30/30 is a bit much.  Playstation is still getting games like Elden Ring and Gran Turismo 7 and they have to chart for a few weeks each.  But yeah, there are going to be dry spells too.

Yeah I don't see it happening but the last 4 of the 5 weeks being 30/30's made the idea pop into my head. It ending up being somewhere between 10-20 is probably more likely.

Splatoon 3 + Arceus + Kirby > BD/SP + Mario Party Superstars + Monster Hunter Rise + Bowsers Fury (6.26M)

2022 lineup is huge if nothing is delayed into 2023

Don't count out how huge Splatoon 3 is going to be.. its been five long years and the reveal is already the 27th most viewed video on Nintendo Japan's YouTube channel; 5th most viewed game trailer/direct; the Splatoon twitter is only surpassed by Animal Crossing and Nintendo's official account. Marketing for the game hasn't even kicked into gear. If there is anything that will ensure Switch doesn't have a bad YoY comparision its the launch of Splatoon 3 in the summer and Arceus having good WoM leading to legs through-out the year - Kirby is likely to hit a million and this will be capped off with Breath of the Wild Sequel in the fall. 

Breath of the Wild sequel + Bayonetta 3 + unrevealed Nintendo/Pokemon Co published titles > all Nintendo/Pokemon titles launched in 2021 that managed over 100K sales per Famitsu's Top 30 (1.77M)

Breath of the Wild Sequel is not yet fully confirmed and it's likely to launch in the fall becoming Nintendo's big holiday game, could be the first time Zelda franchise opens with around 1 million sales. Bayonetta 3 also might be the break-out hit for the franchise, we have very little knowledge but a lot of speculation about the rest of their plans for the year but expect 2-3 additional titles in 2022.  

Sunbreak + Triangle Strategy + Touken Ranbu + eBaseball 2022 + unrevealed third party titles > all Third Party titles launched in 2021 that managed over 100K sales per Famitsu's Top 30 (1.5M)

In terms of third parties Sunbreak alone should be easily in the 500K+ range likely actually closer to a million, rest of the line-up is unknown but so far three other games are guaranteed to break 100K. 

Anybody worried about YoY comparisons forgets about what an impact a game like Splatoon 3 combined with the rest of the titles I've over-viewed can do in terms of generating additional demand in the country - for new buyers or players looking to upgrade to OLED or whatever other revisions or updates Nintendo decide to go with for 2022. If things are bad they could always drop the price as well, prompting additional short term demand and higher sales in the holidays. 

In the end I expect 2022 to land above 2019 and maybe even challenge 2021 - it all depends on Splatoon 3 mainly but Arceus, Breath of the Wild sequel, revisions, price-cuts could also be factors. In anycase an interesting year ahead is in store. I personally expect Splatoon 3 to manage 4 million physical this year alone - and this will surely impact hardware sales as the craze around the game reaches a boiling point. 

I really liked everything you said here, except this one thing:

"Sunbreak + Triangle Strategy + Touken Ranbu + eBaseball 2022 + unrevealed third party titles > all Third Party titles launched in 2021 that managed over 100K sales per Famitsu's Top 30 (1.5M)"

Wouldn't Monster Hunter Rise be included in that "all Third Party titles launched in 2021..."  I'm pretty sure that game alone is over 1.5M.

Over 3.5mil actually. He meant titles that didn't top 1mil.

Oh I see.  That makes sense.

And his overall point is solid.  2022 is looking to be one hell of a year for software.  That is also why even though we are past peak hardware, YoY drops in hardware sales will be gradual.  We are almost at the Switch's 5 year anniversary and for many Nintendo systems the software pipeline would have dried up by that point.  Switch's software is still going strong.

For example, the Wii's 5 year anniversary would have been Dec 2, 2011 (in Japan).  At that point they would have just gotten the disappointing Skyward Sword and have basically nothing left to look forward too.  In North America we still had XC1 and the annual Just Dance games as the only significant releases and that was basically it.  The Switch's software this year totally blows all of that away.  They could literally release XC3 this year, and it would still be seen as a mid-sized release compared to everything else.  That is how much better Switch's software is looking than the Wii at a similar time period.

There is also another factor, Japan hardware sales this decade are generally over 6 million
However with the decline of the PS brand into irrelevance with the PS5 and consolidations of handheld and console lines by Nintendo means that now a single platform carries 80% of that weight
So its difficult to imagine with 90% of the software market consolidated to a single platform - that platform to have a big decline YoY during it's software peak
Even 2023 should be above 3.5 million for the Switch - unless a successor is revealed Japanese folks don't have much alternatives
That's the main reason I think Switch will end up the best selling system in Japan and wont have huge declines until successor is released. However I don't really expect one until late 2023 or early 2024.

I don't expect much of a resurgence for the PS in 2022 as supply chain problems continue and other markets continue to make most of the demand for the system, it will be another year of software declines until supply chain problems are solved - since it would continue to be attractive item for reselling outside of Japan. Leaving us in a situation where software continues to be anemic compared to past systems. Meanwhile PS4 which managed over 2 million software in 2021 is likely to decline further and I doubt PS5 software sales will make up the difference. 

The only way I can see solving this is more PS4s being sold in Japan, like 500-800K for next year so some respectable results are achieved by the crossgen games. Until Sony can meet demand for PS5, Japan is priced out - combine that with fewer exclusive releases due to the explosion of third party sales over the course of the last two years leading to 85% of sales for third parties on the Switch. The few exclusive that do launch are not going to bring 100K weeks to the system but at least make it reach a respectful on average 11-15K per week in addition to the 17-20K that PS5 baseline that can be maintained to match 2021 numbers.

Still it would be software that will tell the entire story of 2022, as I don't expect for much to change especially with Switch likely selling over 30 million software for the year for the first time in Japan. As even in this scenario I don't think there is enough software to surpass 3 million on the PS4/PS5 unless FFVXI releases in 2022 and even this release might not move that much software in the current environment - likely struggling to surpass 700K if its launched with the current state of PS5 ownership in Japan. Much like Demon Slayer a huge IP that in normal circumstances could have been a 500K+ game on an active Japanese userbase 

Combining its two SKUs, BOTW is #10 this week, nearly five years after its release.

Incredible performance.