| trestres said: The lack of big releases really hurt the Switch in Japan. Gonna be tough watching the YoY comparisons from now on |
Splatoon 3 + Arceus + Kirby > BD/SP + Mario Party Superstars + Monster Hunter Rise + Bowsers Fury (6.26M)
2022 lineup is huge if nothing is delayed into 2023
Don't count out how huge Splatoon 3 is going to be.. its been five long years and the reveal is already the 27th most viewed video on Nintendo Japan's YouTube channel; 5th most viewed game trailer/direct; the Splatoon twitter is only surpassed by Animal Crossing and Nintendo's official account. Marketing for the game hasn't even kicked into gear. If there is anything that will ensure Switch doesn't have a bad YoY comparision its the launch of Splatoon 3 in the summer and Arceus having good WoM leading to legs through-out the year - Kirby is likely to hit a million and this will be capped off with Breath of the Wild Sequel in the fall.
Breath of the Wild sequel + Bayonetta 3 + unrevealed Nintendo/Pokemon Co published titles > all Nintendo/Pokemon titles launched in 2021 that managed over 100K sales per Famitsu's Top 30 (1.77M)
Breath of the Wild Sequel is not yet fully confirmed and it's likely to launch in the fall becoming Nintendo's big holiday game, could be the first time Zelda franchise opens with around 1 million sales. Bayonetta 3 also might be the break-out hit for the franchise, we have very little knowledge but a lot of speculation about the rest of their plans for the year but expect 2-3 additional titles in 2022.
Sunbreak + Triangle Strategy + Touken Ranbu + eBaseball 2022 + unrevealed third party titles > all Third Party titles launched in 2021 that managed over 100K sales per Famitsu's Top 30 (1.5M)
In terms of third parties Sunbreak alone should be easily in the 500K+ range likely actually closer to a million, rest of the line-up is unknown but so far three other games are guaranteed to break 100K.
Anybody worried about YoY comparisons forgets about what an impact a game like Splatoon 3 combined with the rest of the titles I've over-viewed can do in terms of generating additional demand in the country - for new buyers or players looking to upgrade to OLED or whatever other revisions or updates Nintendo decide to go with for 2022. If things are bad they could always drop the price as well, prompting additional short term demand and higher sales in the holidays.
In the end I expect 2022 to land above 2019 and maybe even challenge 2021 - it all depends on Splatoon 3 mainly but Arceus, Breath of the Wild sequel, revisions, price-cuts could also be factors. In anycase an interesting year ahead is in store. I personally expect Splatoon 3 to manage 4 million physical this year alone - and this will surely impact hardware sales as the craze around the game reaches a boiling point.
