I know this would probably be an extraordinary amount of work and understand completely if this is not possible, but is there a reason VGChartz doesn’t do rough estimates of of console market share in some of the larger European markets (like the UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy)? I’d be really interested in some of that data.

So Switch finishes 2021 just 9.1% down YOY from its calendar year peak. Not bad at all.

I’m guessing this year will be down 20-25% so right around 2019 sales.

Selling similarly in its 6th year to its 3rd year would be quite impressive.

I just realized from looking at these numbers that if the Switch wins this gen, it will have won four home console generations (NES, SNES, and Wii being the other three) which would make it the all-time leader by one (Sony would be second with PS1,PS2 and PS4). That's downright remarkable considering the under-performing N64 and dud that was Gamecube and Wii-U. Not many companies can survive after such massive pitfalls.

I feel like this is the contest to watch for the immediate future.  X|S clearly narrowed the gap between it and PS5 in the US.  Given the chip shortage, I think it is likely this trend will continue and X|S will surpass the PS5 in the US.

I think it’s an intentional and wise strategy on the part of Microsoft for the short to medium term. There are literally tens of millions of former Xbox players North America that switched to other platforms over the last 8 years, and a large portion of them could be won back, perhaps permanently. 

if they can regain the market share lead over PS in NA then Xbox will probably have secured a more or less permanent seat at the table in the hardware business. Trying to regain ground in the rest of the world for 10th gen will be a lot easier if they aren’t having to play catch-up on their home turf

That cliff is so steep, that at this rate the Switch will only sell (gets out my excel) 182 million+ by the end of 2025...

I feel bad for the fucking customer who got only the 0.95 of a Switch that year, but it looks like in 2026 all the partial Switches sold even themselves out. That's at the current rate, any number of things could happen with the Switch between now and 2050. A new killer app like Pokemon on GB could release late in its lifespan to vastly increase sales, Nintendo might suffer a PR disaster tanking sales, but maybe new markets in Africa will open up after the discovery of some super element or compound buried deep beneath the Kongo, OR it might be Nintendo releases a new form factor for the system bumping sales into whole new markets, or Nintendo might release a successor causing sales to rapidly decrease, or Nintendo might find a whole new market of popular use for motion controls booming the sales. It's hard to say, no one can predict what happens in the future! Any of these things are possible! 

The US is always the most interesting territory to me because it's not dominated by one brand like Europe or Japan/SE Asia. It's definitely going to be fun to watch PS5 and XS duke it out there; as trunks points out, even last gen it was the one place where PS4 isn't curbstomp the Xbone.

I still lean towards PS5 win at this point, but it could go either way depending on how impactful Xbox's expanded first party lineup turns out to be.

Companies that sell at a profit survive stuff like this. 

Having a dud product now and again isn't a big problem unless the dud is because of quality issues that soil the brand.

This couple with Nintendo always having the second leg of portables selling OK to really well is why they can endure the occasional dud generation.

To expand even further on Nintendo is aside from it's own brand power you have the brand power of Mario (first and foremost) and then Pokemon, Zelda, Animal Crossing etc.