Between 18.7 and 26.9 million. The high end will result from a surprise killer app, the low end will result from a lack of new killer apps, moderate, or minor system sellers. I think Switch would still easily coast to near 20 million even if it had little in the way of compelling software to new users. But I think it could also have a giant year with even one new killer app on the scale of Animal Crossing or Breath of the Wild by late August… if it slips into the holiday season then it won’t have as big an impact, but will still result in the 22-24 million range.
I’m not convinced Breath of the Wild 2 will be more than a moderate system seller as I think it will do best in reminding new customers that Breath of the Wild 1 is on Switch. Also, now there’s two of them. It should appeal almost completely to existing Switch owners. If there is something compelling on it, then it could be great. I personally didn’t think floating islands was that. Fragmenting the world isn’t terribly original or interesting on its own—in my opinion, less interesting than what already exists in the first game. For Nintendo’s early summer direct, if they market the game like they did Breath of the Wild in 2016, and detail something as compelling as the highly open ended gameplay, survival stuff, and promise of vast new possibilities, like Breath of the Wild 1, then I think Breath of the Wild 2 could be a massive hit for new Switch owners.
There is also the chance that some new big fucking IP will pop up that we weren’t aware of before. It’d likely be in some kind of new and interesting type of software, perhaps even a health-pack type (Ring Fit, Wii Fit sort of thing). But my hopes is that the next Xeno game generates massive excitement.
I think the best way Xeno could do it is with a Witcher 3 caliber Xeno game… Although, if they go with kids as the protagonists again, that’ll preclude the game from generating much new interest in the Switch. People like playing characters they can relate to, and more games with kids is just shooting to an audience segment Nintendo already owns in the console sphere. A new RPG aimed at kids will be throwing a log on an already large pile of wood. But this generations Witcher 3, exclusive to Switch, with an older cast, more mature themes, and more freedom for the players (which Monolithsoft is very familiar with doing), fulfilling the gap left by Cyberpunk’s broken expectation, could mean a massive hit for Nintendo. More open to a Switch than any Nintendo console before, and Nintendo just needs to seize that opportunity. Monolithsoft is traditionally known for their science fiction stories, and they can KILL EA’s Mass Effect franchise with the proper budget. But, it’s the Cyberpunk crater left behind, I think if another company delivers on that craving, they’ll get those millions and millions of customers, many don’t own a Switch yet. While Monolithsoft hasn’t had their Breath of the Wild/Witcher 3 caliber game, they are capable of making one. Especially now, they are now a much larger studio than the one that made Xenosaga, Xenoblade, or Xenoblade Chronicles X. Their gap of time since Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is already around double the dev time of that game, and their team could be as large as five times more than the one that did that game. According to Monolith Soft President Hirohide Sugiura, Tetsuya Takahashi was using Xenoblade games as prototypes for a bigger game. The next game could be the big one.
Last edited by Jumpin - on 07 January 2022I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.
