Sell-through expectations for Switch in 2022?

[Kai_Mao]

A couple of variables to consider.

1) Will the sequel to BOTW actually release this year? That will be the lingering question until we get a firm release date and even then we can’t be too confident about that release date until we get really close to it.

2) What other games are going to be announced by Nintendo this year? There’s no way in hell that what was announced in 2021 (ie, Bayo 3, Kirby, Advance Wars 1+2 Reboot Camp, Pokemon legends, Splatoon 3, Triangle Strategy, etc.) is gonna be it. Nintendo will provide more surprises. Just which ones? With what has transpired in recent years, we have more possibilities. Metroid Dread, Famicom Detective Club remakes, the original Fire Emblem Shadow Dragon and the Blade of Light, New Pokemon Snap, and Advanced Wars 1+2 reboot camp show that Nintendo is willing to go a little deeper in it’s catalogue (and dormant projects) and provide some unique content.

For my prediction, I’d probably see Switch selling around 18-23 million in 2022. The Switch still has some momentum after a pretty good year considering the circumstances of the pandemic. I do wonder how much Splatoon 3 and BOTW 2 will impact sales though.