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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Nears 100M, PS5 Tops 16M - Global Hardware Dec 4 to 11

Zippy6 said:
Wyrdness said:

Pretty sure PS4 is faster than PS2.

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1156086524397727745?s=20

That's because PS2 is (shipped) I used sell-through for the ones with it available.

What is your source though as I find it odd PS2 would ship faster but PS4 is being confirmed to have sold faster it looks to me PS4 was faster all around. As someone else said PS4 may have shipped 100m before week 300.



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Wyrdness said:
Zippy6 said:

That's because PS2 is (shipped) I used sell-through for the ones with it available.

What is your source though as I find it odd PS2 would ship faster but PS4 is being confirmed to have sold faster it looks to me PS4 was faster all around. As someone else said PS4 may have shipped 100m before week 300.

Yeah I never said PS2 shipped 100m faster than PS4 lol.

PS2 shipped 100m in 300 weeks
PS4 shipped 100m in 294 weeks

PS4 sold-through 100m in 305 weeks
PS2 sold-through 100m in ??? weeks

Edit: I used sell-through to avoid the "roughly" estimates that were needed for ps1/gameboy due to quarterly/annual fiscal data meaning rough guesses were needed, though Wii, PS4 and DS actually all have announcements for 100m so the only other console that is affected and needs a "rough" guess is for shipped is Switch, so using shipments only actually works fine.

All shipped is this:
DS = 224 weeks
Switch = Roughly 246 weeks
PS4 = 294 weeks
PS2 = 300 weeks
Wii = 345 weeks
PS1 = Roughly 500 Weeks
Gameboy = Roughly 580 Weeks

Last edited by Zippy6 - on 24 December 2021

NS numbers very good, but a little below what they could be.
PS5 numbers terrible, components supplies situation worse than last Winter, despite the pandemic being less harsh than back then.
XS numbers actually quite good for the 3rd selling one.



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Dulfite said:
curl-6 said:

Have we had the obligatory annual "Switch will fall off a cliff in 2022" post yet?

Like a PS4 or Wii-level cliff? I highly doubt it. But 2022 will absolutely be less sales than this year, which will be less than 2020. 2020 was the peak, and we are on the downward slope now. It will end up with elite lifetime sales, but I don't think it will ever top 2020.

I expect the numbers to be flat in 2022 for the Switch as the chip shortage will be mostly overcome in mid-2022 and most of the people who wanted to buy a Switch in 2021 (about 2-4 mil.) but couldn't will do so in 2022.



Fight-the-Streets said:
Dulfite said:

Like a PS4 or Wii-level cliff? I highly doubt it. But 2022 will absolutely be less sales than this year, which will be less than 2020. 2020 was the peak, and we are on the downward slope now. It will end up with elite lifetime sales, but I don't think it will ever top 2020.

I expect the numbers to be flat in 2022 for the Switch as the chip shortage will be mostly overcome in mid-2022 and most of the people who wanted to buy a Switch in 2021 (about 2-4 mil.) but couldn't will do so in 2022.

There's zero evidence that Switch shortages have reduced sell-through by as much as 4 million. Nintendo's forecast was only reduced by 1.5m and there's no guarantee that if they shipped an extra 1.5m they would have sold-through an extra 1.5m.

2022 sales will certainly be down on 2021.

Switch peaked in 2020, it will decline with every subsequent year till it ends.



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Zippy6 said:
Fight-the-Streets said:

I expect the numbers to be flat in 2022 for the Switch as the chip shortage will be mostly overcome in mid-2022 and most of the people who wanted to buy a Switch in 2021 (about 2-4 mil.) but couldn't will do so in 2022.

There's zero evidence that Switch shortages have reduced sell-through by as much as 4 million. Nintendo's forecast was only reduced by 1.5m and there's no guarantee that if they shipped an extra 1.5m they would have sold-through an extra 1.5m.

2022 sales will certainly be down on 2021.

Switch peaked in 2020, it will decline with every subsequent year till it ends.

On top of this point, there is always a percentage of people that, due to the thing they want not being available, move on to getting something else instead (other form of entertainment). So subtract that number as well. If there were 1.5 million that couldn't get one, certainly not all of those people were happy to wait until one was available and instead bought something else (maybe not even a game console but some other form of entertainment). Consumers are very impatient, especially parents buying for their kids around the holidays.



Dulfite said:
Zippy6 said:

There's zero evidence that Switch shortages have reduced sell-through by as much as 4 million. Nintendo's forecast was only reduced by 1.5m and there's no guarantee that if they shipped an extra 1.5m they would have sold-through an extra 1.5m.

2022 sales will certainly be down on 2021.

Switch peaked in 2020, it will decline with every subsequent year till it ends.

On top of this point, there is always a percentage of people that, due to the thing they want not being available, move on to getting something else instead (other form of entertainment). So subtract that number as well. If there were 1.5 million that couldn't get one, certainly not all of those people were happy to wait until one was available and instead bought something else (maybe not even a game console but some other form of entertainment). Consumers are very impatient, especially parents buying for their kids around the holidays.

Well, 2020 sold through over 28 mil. and without shortage I actually expected 2021 to slightly beat that number. So let's say 29 mil. that would make 4 mil. more than the expected 25 mil. (or 3 mil. more than 26 mil.). Of course, not all 4 mil. will now go and buy a Switch in 2022 (but maybe in 2023/24). So if I give a range of 2-4 mil. it probably ends up somewhere in the middle (and some of the rest will buy it in 2023/24). I definitely think that more than 80% of those who couldn't get a Switch in 2021 will still buy one later.



S.Peelman said:
Zippy6 said:

As Kakadu18 said, DS is faster.

Here's how long it took every console to get to 100m (including Switch already).

DS = 232 Weeks
Switch = 251 Weeks
PS2 = 300 Weeks (Shipped)
PS4 = 305 Weeks
Wii = 367 Weeks
PS1 = Roughly 500 Weeks (Shipped)
Gameboy = Roughly 580 Weeks (Shipped)

Poor Wii. It could’ve, should’ve, done this like a 100 weeks faster, but, yeah.

Indeed, taking 1 full year to go from 95 million shipped to 99 million in 2012, what a downfall.

I am very curious about 2022 sales for the Nintendo Switch. With the chip shortage continuing, making the next gen consoles still unavailable (or hardly), it has still room for a 3rd year above 20 million.



SKMBlake said:
S.Peelman said:

Poor Wii. It could’ve, should’ve, done this like a 100 weeks faster, but, yeah.

Indeed, taking 1 full year to go from 95 million shipped to 99 million in 2012, what a downfall.

I am very curious about 2022 sales for the Nintendo Switch. With the chip shortage continuing, making the next gen consoles still unavailable (or hardly), it has still room for a 3rd year above 20 million.

I don't think it will drop below 20m next year. Think I said 20-22m in a prediction thread.



@Zippy6 That's what I'm thinking as well. 2022 should be below 2021, which will be below 2020. Still, I do think it's possible for Switch to sell at least 20M next year. Ultimately, it could be in the top 3 best selling game systems by the end of next year.