I don't agree with that at all.  Wind Waker and Twilight Princess are very different Zelda games from BOTW and I actually expect at least one of those titles to release on Switch in 2022.

Agreed on Pokemon, especially since I think we'll get a Sword/Shield sequel in 2023, along with (hopefully) Prime 4, Odyssey 2, Pikmin 4 and anything legit on that list that doesn't arrive next year.

I'm with Zippy and Torpoleon, I expect Switch to still be above 20 million in 2022 (barring extraordinary circumstances like a premature successor) but down from 2021.

Most people interested in a Switch will have one by now, and individual system sellers tend to make less of a difference later in a console's life.

That said, 2022's lineup is already very strong and that's just the games we know about; there are almost certainly other major titles not yet announced as well. A strong overall lineup will help keep the system relevant and talked about, as well as adding compound value to its evergreen catalogue.

One thing that should help bolster Switch is that a lot of the Switches sold lately are from households where people already own one (either someone is upgrading or another one is being bought so people can have their own). Being a handheld and home console has really helped.

I could also see Nintendo dropping the OG Switch completely next year and then bring the OLED down to $300 (maybe even a slight drop in the Lite's price as well). That could be another factor that brings Switch over 20M for the year in 2022. (Also, if they do drop the OG Switch, I could see next year's BF bundle being the OLED packaged with MK8 DX). By the way, I wouldn't be surprised if we got a small amount of tracks & characters for MK8 DX next year since it is the 30th anniversary of the series. I don't expect a new Mario Kart or anything big, but I just can't see them leaving MK8 DX mostly untouched throughout most of the Switch's life.

Yeah I’ve been thinking 2022 sales will be similar to 2019.

Winter-Pokemon Legends/Triangle Strategy

Spring-Advance Wars/3D Kirby

Summer-Splatoon/Mario Rabbids

Fall-Bayonetta/Zelda

Assuming this is when the currently announced games release, they already have their bases covered and I mostly expect another mid-sized (like rumored Fire Emblem in Summer) & casual focused (like Nintendogs or new IP in Fall) title to fill out the year.

I was thinking maybe a big Mario title alongside the movie but I don’t think they will have a big Zelda & Mario both in the holidays so maybe it will release slightly later like Jan/Feb (NSMBU & 3D World ports both launched in this window).

Before the chip-shortages were announced in 2021, the Switch's numbers were expected to be flat or slightly higher than 2020. So let's say they would have been around 28 mil. If people now expect that the Switch will sell only around 21 mil. in 2022, it would be a decrease of 25% - is this the cliff? I just don't see that the decrease will be 25% unless 2022 is again heavily short on chips.

Regarding new releases for next year, there's one specific low-profile game I'm looking forward to: A cartoony samurai game from Good-Feel (the developer of the two latest Yoshi games). https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2020/10/yoshis_crafted_world_studio_good-feels_next_game_is_giving_us_serious_goemon_vibes

Expected by who?

Most of us, as 2021 sales started in a higher level than the sales for 2020, before loosing momentum during summer.

Any idea when this week’s numbers should be out? I think I recall someone in here saying they anticipated a good week of stock for the PS5 and Xboxes

I personally don't remember ever predicting 2021 to be above 2020, as unless I am misremembering, the chip shortage actually started in 2020 so we knew about it coming into 2021, plus it's almost unheard of for a system to peak in its 5th year and 2021 had no killer app on the tier of Animal Crossing.

25% drop isn't a cliff either, a cliff would be like if next year they fall to like 15 million.

And I'm also quite interested in Good Feel's mystery game, I enjoyed their Yoshi/Kirby titles.