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curl-6 on 27 December 2021
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Fight-the-Streets said:
curl-6 said:

I'm with Zippy and Torpoleon, I expect Switch to still be above 20 million in 2022 (barring extraordinary circumstances like a premature successor) but down from 2021.

Most people interested in a Switch will have one by now, and individual system sellers tend to make less of a difference later in a console's life.

That said, 2022's lineup is already very strong and that's just the games we know about; there are almost certainly other major titles not yet announced as well. A strong overall lineup will help keep the system relevant and talked about, as well as adding compound value to its evergreen catalogue.

Before the chip-shortages were announced in 2021, the Switch's numbers were expected to be flat or slightly higher than 2020. So let's say they would have been around 28 mil. If people now expect that the Switch will sell only around 21 mil. in 2022, it would be a decrease of 25% - is this the cliff? I just don't see that the decrease will be 25% unless 2022 is again heavily short on chips.

Regarding new releases for next year, there's one specific low-profile game I'm looking forward to: A cartoony samurai game from Good-Feel (the developer of the two latest Yoshi games). https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2020/10/yoshis_crafted_world_studio_good-feels_next_game_is_giving_us_serious_goemon_vibes

I personally don't remember ever predicting 2021 to be above 2020, as unless I am misremembering, the chip shortage actually started in 2020 so we knew about it coming into 2021, plus it's almost unheard of for a system to peak in its 5th year and 2021 had no killer app on the tier of Animal Crossing.

25% drop isn't a cliff either, a cliff would be like if next year they fall to like 15 million.

And I'm also quite interested in Good Feel's mystery game, I enjoyed their Yoshi/Kirby titles.