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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Nears 100M, PS5 Tops 16M - Global Hardware Dec 4 to 11

archbrix on 25 December 2021
Zippy6 said:
Fight-the-Streets said:

I expect the numbers to be flat in 2022 for the Switch as the chip shortage will be mostly overcome in mid-2022 and most of the people who wanted to buy a Switch in 2021 (about 2-4 mil.) but couldn't will do so in 2022.

There's zero evidence that Switch shortages have reduced sell-through by as much as 4 million. Nintendo's forecast was only reduced by 1.5m and there's no guarantee that if they shipped an extra 1.5m they would have sold-through an extra 1.5m.

2022 sales will certainly be down on 2021.

Switch peaked in 2020, it will decline with every subsequent year till it ends.

I'm not so sure about this.  Normally I'd be inclined to agree but the chip shortage has messed things up so much that I think that 2022 will be at least flat with 2021, provided the stock is there.

If this rumored 2022 lineup has any credibility, we're looking at another 25m demand year for Switch, particularly if the OLED is $299 by the fall:



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zorg1000 on 25 December 2021
archbrix said:
Zippy6 said:

There's zero evidence that Switch shortages have reduced sell-through by as much as 4 million. Nintendo's forecast was only reduced by 1.5m and there's no guarantee that if they shipped an extra 1.5m they would have sold-through an extra 1.5m.

2022 sales will certainly be down on 2021.

Switch peaked in 2020, it will decline with every subsequent year till it ends.

I'm not so sure about this.  Normally I'd be inclined to agree but the chip shortage has messed things up so much that I think that 2022 will be at least flat with 2021, provided the stock is there.

If this rumored 2022 lineup has any credibility, we're looking at another 25m demand year for Switch, particularly if the OLED is $299 by the fall:

That lineup is not happening



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Kakadu18 on 25 December 2021
archbrix said:
Zippy6 said:

There's zero evidence that Switch shortages have reduced sell-through by as much as 4 million. Nintendo's forecast was only reduced by 1.5m and there's no guarantee that if they shipped an extra 1.5m they would have sold-through an extra 1.5m.

2022 sales will certainly be down on 2021.

Switch peaked in 2020, it will decline with every subsequent year till it ends.

I'm not so sure about this.  Normally I'd be inclined to agree but the chip shortage has messed things up so much that I think that 2022 will be at least flat with 2021, provided the stock is there.

If this rumored 2022 lineup has any credibility, we're looking at another 25m demand year for Switch, particularly if the OLED is $299 by the fall:

I seriously doubt that there will be more Let's Go games next year. And I don't see them bringing TP and WW to the Switch in the same year as BotW2.



archbrix on 25 December 2021
Kakadu18 said:
archbrix said:

I'm not so sure about this.  Normally I'd be inclined to agree but the chip shortage has messed things up so much that I think that 2022 will be at least flat with 2021, provided the stock is there.

If this rumored 2022 lineup has any credibility, we're looking at another 25m demand year for Switch, particularly if the OLED is $299 by the fall:

I seriously doubt that there will be more Let's Go games next year. And I don't see them bringing TP and WW to the Switch in the same year as BotW2.

Really?  Seems like a great way (cheap and easy for Nintendo) to add hype for a new release to me. 



archbrix on 25 December 2021
zorg1000 said:
archbrix said:

I'm not so sure about this.  Normally I'd be inclined to agree but the chip shortage has messed things up so much that I think that 2022 will be at least flat with 2021, provided the stock is there.

If this rumored 2022 lineup has any credibility, we're looking at another 25m demand year for Switch, particularly if the OLED is $299 by the fall:

That lineup is not happening

Not likely all in one year, I agree.  But this guy was certainly right in 2020 about several things that went down in 2021 like WW, 2D Metroid, Advance Wars, and the 3D Kirby that was announced.  At best I would say that some of these titles release later, but at worst, I'd say that there is probably some credence to much of this rumored lineup - particularly the new DK from EPD, which I continue to believe exists.



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zorg1000 on 25 December 2021
archbrix said:
zorg1000 said:

That lineup is not happening

Not likely all in one year, I agree.  But this guy was certainly right in 2020 about several things that went down in 2021 like WW, 2D Metroid, Advance Wars, and the 3D Kirby that was announced.  At best I would say that some of these titles release later, but at worst, I'd say that there is probably some credence to much of this rumored lineup - particularly the new DK from EPD, which I continue to believe exists.

I have no issue with believing any of those titles are in development, just the idea of them all releasing next year. It’s more like the 2022+2023 major releases.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Dulfite on 25 December 2021
archbrix said:
Kakadu18 said:

I seriously doubt that there will be more Let's Go games next year. And I don't see them bringing TP and WW to the Switch in the same year as BotW2.

Really?  Seems like a great way (cheap and easy for Nintendo) to add hype for a new release to me. 

More like add burnout and diminish sales potential.



Dulfite on 25 December 2021
trunkswd said:

Looking at that Switch lineup. As other have said I would expect that to be 2022 and 2023 lineup. I don't see another Pokemon game coming out so soon with the remakes just coming out and Legends early next year.

Aren't they all different devs/teams?



Kakadu18 on 25 December 2021
Dulfite said:
trunkswd said:

Looking at that Switch lineup. As other have said I would expect that to be 2022 and 2023 lineup. I don't see another Pokemon game coming out so soon with the remakes just coming out and Legends early next year.

Aren't they all different devs/teams?

^ You've said it yourself. Releasing three Pokémons in like 15 months could lead to burnout.

Also which other team would there be to make the new Let's Go games? I don't see Ilca making them in a year.



Dulfite on 25 December 2021
Kakadu18 said:
Dulfite said:

Aren't they all different devs/teams?

^ You've said it yourself. Releasing three Pokémons in like 15 months could lead to burnout.

Also which other team would there be to make the new Let's Go games? I don't see Ilca making them in a year.

Oh I absolutely think it would and it would be stupid to release three AA - AAA Pokemon games in the same year. I was more suggesting they could do it because they aren't all made by one developer if I recall.