Switch Nears 100M, PS5 Tops 16M - Global Hardware Dec 4 to 11

[archbrix]

Zippy6 said:

Fight-the-Streets said:

I expect the numbers to be flat in 2022 for the Switch as the chip shortage will be mostly overcome in mid-2022 and most of the people who wanted to buy a Switch in 2021 (about 2-4 mil.) but couldn't will do so in 2022.

There's zero evidence that Switch shortages have reduced sell-through by as much as 4 million. Nintendo's forecast was only reduced by 1.5m and there's no guarantee that if they shipped an extra 1.5m they would have sold-through an extra 1.5m.

2022 sales will certainly be down on 2021.

Switch peaked in 2020, it will decline with every subsequent year till it ends.

I'm not so sure about this.  Normally I'd be inclined to agree but the chip shortage has messed things up so much that I think that 2022 will be at least flat with 2021, provided the stock is there.

If this rumored 2022 lineup has any credibility, we're looking at another 25m demand year for Switch, particularly if the OLED is $299 by the fall:

"Initial plans for 2022 are

Pokemon Legends Arceus
Kirby and the forgotten Land
Advance Wars 1+2
Casual IP
Splatoon 3
FE Echoes
Detective Pikachu
Zelda WW/TP
Mario+Rabbids 2
Bayonetta 3
Metroid Prime
New 2D DK
Pokemon Let’s Go Sequels
Zelda BOTW Sequel
Monolith Project

— markomaro (@Newmarkomaro)"

Keep in mind that Peer from IGN also commented on Nintendo having a surprisingly strong lineup for 2022.