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Fight-the-Streets on 25 December 2021
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Dulfite said:
Zippy6 said:

There's zero evidence that Switch shortages have reduced sell-through by as much as 4 million. Nintendo's forecast was only reduced by 1.5m and there's no guarantee that if they shipped an extra 1.5m they would have sold-through an extra 1.5m.

2022 sales will certainly be down on 2021.

Switch peaked in 2020, it will decline with every subsequent year till it ends.

On top of this point, there is always a percentage of people that, due to the thing they want not being available, move on to getting something else instead (other form of entertainment). So subtract that number as well. If there were 1.5 million that couldn't get one, certainly not all of those people were happy to wait until one was available and instead bought something else (maybe not even a game console but some other form of entertainment). Consumers are very impatient, especially parents buying for their kids around the holidays.

Well, 2020 sold through over 28 mil. and without shortage I actually expected 2021 to slightly beat that number. So let's say 29 mil. that would make 4 mil. more than the expected 25 mil. (or 3 mil. more than 26 mil.). Of course, not all 4 mil. will now go and buy a Switch in 2022 (but maybe in 2023/24). So if I give a range of 2-4 mil. it probably ends up somewhere in the middle (and some of the rest will buy it in 2023/24). I definitely think that more than 80% of those who couldn't get a Switch in 2021 will still buy one later.