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Forums - Sales - Switch Sells 750K, PS5 Sells 408K, and XS Sells 326K - Global Hardware Nov 14 to 20

AJNShelton on 29 November 2021

I am one of these people who bought a Switch, again, I was weak



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Kakadu18 on 29 November 2021

Great Switch sales. 1.5mil next week then probably. Don't see it being up yoy next week.



siebensus4 on 29 November 2021

PS5 and XSX/S are selling less than PS4 in XOne in their respectively week, due to shortages. That's a bummer.

I wonder when we see significant Switch shortages. Currently it holds up pretty well YoY.



noshten on 29 November 2021

Switch is likely to outsell PS5 and XS combined on the NPD in November, and XS is likely to outsell PS5, Microsoft will get a win simply by virtue of being a non-factor in too many markets and thus being able to supply more in North Merica & the UK



ShadowLink93 on 29 November 2021
freedquaker said:
ShadowLink93 said:

The Switch needs 8.77m in Q3 to pass Wii and 9.63m to Pass PS1 by the end of the year. last year Switch sold 11.57m in Q3 and so far it is selling in line with last year, if it matches last year it will end the year on 104.44m. I'm really confident it will sell in the region of 11.5m in Q3 putting it above the Wii and PS1 by a couple of million.

Awesome table! I have applied a simple intuitive regression analysis based on the data above in order to estimate the quarterly software sales figures. The model simply assumes;

a) Quarterly NEW hardware sales (x1) are positively correlated with software sales;
b) Quarterly CUMULATIVE hardware sales (x2) are also positively correlated with software sales (thru a different channel).

In other words, both the quarterly hardware sales AND the Install base simultaneously affect SW sales. Analytically speaking, the model is defined as,

Y = Betha_0 + Betha_1 * X1 + Betha_2 * X2 + Error Term

where Betha_1 is the slope (impact factor) of quarterly sales, an Betha_2 is the slope of cumulative hardware sales.

Interestingly the estimate function is acquired as  Y = -0.4328 + 3.7718 * X1 + 0.4133 * X2,

where R_square = 95% with P-values and F-value practically zero. In other words, the model can explain 95% of the variation in SW sales with 99.99% confidence. Long story short, the moral of the story,

1) We can easily and accurately estimate the software sales by knowing the quarterly and cumulative hardware sales,
2) Cumulative hardware sales (Install base) is incrementally getting more important according to the model, so as time goes on, it becomes incrementally easier to estimate SW sales even without quarterly sales.

Here is a comparison between the quarterly software sales and the model estimates from 2016-2017 q4 thru 2021-22 q2

5.4611.03
8.148.90
13.8813.77
25.0832.98
16.4117.97
17.9614.79
24.1721.05
52.5148.40
23.9123.24
22.6222.84
35.8734.89
64.6462.03
45.5935.02
50.4346.34
49.8253.67
75.8576.21
54.7852.33
45.2953.15
48.6052.39


Thanks for reading and please feel free to comment.

I added cumulative if it helps with your estimation, say if the Switch sells the same as last year (11.57m) in this Q3 how much software will it sell considering the higher install base and the install base is still actively buying software.



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AlbiNecroxz on 29 November 2021
trunkswd said:

Switch Black Friday in the UK was the BEST week ever for the Switch, according to GamesIndustry's Christopher Dring. That would put Switch sales at over 105,000 as taking a quick look the best Switch has sold according to our estimates is 104,220 for week ending Nov 30, 2019.

Xbox Series S alone outsold the PS5. 

Could it mean we would see Switch selling 2m units on BF week?



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Alex_The_Hedgehog on 29 November 2021

Out of curiosity, for how long will you guys keep tracking 3DS at the main page?

I mean, it's probably not going anywhere, since Nintendo ended the 3DS production and sales are pretty much dead by now.



archbrix on 29 November 2021
Kakadu18 said:

Great Switch sales. 1.5mil next week then probably. Don't see it being up yoy next week.

Maybe not up, but I expect sales to be pretty much flat, assuming they stocked up for BF.  Either way, Switch should be around 97m next week.



curl-6 on 29 November 2021

Xbox Series ahead of PS5 in America again. Maybe there's hope for it yet in its former home turf. It's also more than three quarters of PS5 sale globally.

Switch sales are great as expected.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 29 November 2021

archbrix on 29 November 2021
trunkswd said:
archbrix said:

Maybe not up, but I expect sales to be pretty much flat, assuming they stocked up for BF.  Either way, Switch should be around 97m next week.

First bit of Black Friday week data is the Switch had its best week EVER in the UK. That would mean sales of 105,000+ for the Switch in the UK.

That's incredible, particularly for a console in its 5th year. I think Switch's sales will plateau nicely in the next couple of years.