Chip shortages have been reducing production since 2020, so if there were none, yes 2021 would have produced more, but so would 2020. I think that without chip shortages that Switch 2020 would have been a juggernaut no one will beat again.

@trunkswd, how do the consoles perform in the German market?

The UK is one of Nintendo's worst significant markets if I recall correctly.
Then again, this is the nation that brought us One Direction so their awful taste is well established.

The UK is one of Nintendo's worst significant markets if I recall correctly.
Then again, this is the nation that brought us One Direction so their awful taste is well established.

Awesome table! I have applied a simple intuitive regression analysis based on the data above in order to estimate the quarterly software sales figures. The model simply assumes;

a) Quarterly NEW hardware sales (x1) are positively correlated with software sales;
b) Quarterly CUMULATIVE hardware sales (x2) are also positively correlated with software sales (thru a different channel).

In other words, both the quarterly hardware sales AND the Install base simultaneously affect SW sales. Analytically speaking, the model is defined as,

Y = Betha_0 + Betha_1 * X1 + Betha_2 * X2 + Error Term

where Betha_1 is the slope (impact factor) of quarterly sales, an Betha_2 is the slope of cumulative hardware sales.

Interestingly the estimate function is acquired as  Y = -0.4328 + 3.7718 * X1 + 0.4133 * X2,

where R_square = 95% with P-values and F-value practically zero. In other words, the model can explain 95% of the variation in SW sales with 99.99% confidence. Long story short, the moral of the story,

1) We can easily and accurately estimate the software sales by knowing the quarterly and cumulative hardware sales,
2) Cumulative hardware sales (Install base) is incrementally getting more important according to the model, so as time goes on, it becomes incrementally easier to estimate SW sales even without quarterly sales.

Here is a comparison between the quarterly software sales and the model estimates from 2016-2017 q4 thru 2021-22 q2

Thanks for reading and please feel free to comment.