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Forums - Sales - Famitsu sales: Week 43, 2021 - (18th Oct - 24th Oct)

Kakadu18 on 30 October 2021
tbone51 said:
Kakadu18 said:

Last year the Switch came close to 6mil in the end. If it sells similarly from now until the end of the year as last year it would sell another 1.5mil and end up at 23.1mil.

Here's what I think the next few year could look like (assuming that the next console launches in 2024):

2022 - 4.5-5mil
2023 - 3.5mil
2024 - 2mil

And with that the Switch would be over 33mil.

50% drops every year (assuming 6mil this year)

2022: 3mil

2023: 1.5mil

2024+: 750k

lifetime 30mil lifetime

Considering it will most likely not drop 50% already next year, that makes it even more likely for the Switch to outsell the DS.



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Doctor_MG on 30 October 2021
tbone51 said:

50% drops every year (assuming 6mil this year)

2022: 3mil

2023: 1.5mil

2024+: 750k

lifetime 30mil lifetime

Why would you expect 50% drops like that so fast? Are you expecting almost 50% drop in worldwide figures as well?



Wyrdness on 30 October 2021
Doctor_MG said:

Why would you expect 50% drops like that so fast? Are you expecting almost 50% drop in worldwide figures as well?

He's giving a worst case scenario to highlight a point that even in sharp drops the platform will still get within range of the top two selling platforms in the region.



Doctor_MG on 30 October 2021
Wyrdness said:

He's giving a worst case scenario to highlight a point that even in sharp drops the platform will still get within range of the top two selling platforms in the region.

Ah, okay. I was wondering. Thank you for the clarification. 



Bofferbrauer2 on 30 October 2021
src said:

There is no way a console with 0.03 attach ratio is in demand by actual players.

All you achieved with that is proving that Japanese gamers don't want he PS5 since it's attach rate is also abysmal



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

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AJNShelton on 30 October 2021
PAOerfulone said:
LGBTDBZBBQ said:

You also need to take a look at the lineup for the system. 

2022 Switch

Splatoon = 4-5M seller

Pokemon Legends = 3-4M seller

Botw 2 - 2.5M seller

3D Kirby game - 1.5M seller

MHR SunBreak - 1M seller

And many more

Man, you’re expecting an awful lot out of Kirby.

I expect the Kirby game to reach 97 on Metacritic



Metallox on 30 October 2021
SKMBlake said:
PAOerfulone said:

Man, you’re expecting an awful lot out of Kirby.

I expect the Kirby game to reach 97 on Metacritic

Since it's not an adventure/open-world/"mature"/Mario game, it's an automatic 85-

Of course, I'm only kidding, but that's what usually what happens, if we're being honest. 



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

AJNShelton on 30 October 2021
Metallox said:
SKMBlake said:

I expect the Kirby game to reach 97 on Metacritic

Since it's not an adventure/open-world/"mature"/Mario game, it's an automatic 85-

Of course, I'm only kidding, but that's what usually what happens, if we're being honest. 

First full 3D Kirby game with open environments, unleashing the real full power of Kirby, which is the most powerful character ever created.

I think it can be pretty amazing



tbone51 on 30 October 2021
Farsala said:
tbone51 said:

)

I compare to the DS, since people expect DS numbers, 33m.

The 3DS had an artificial sales curve due to the first year price cut. But it still represents just how hard consoles may drop in Japan.

NSW year 7 and 8 probably won't be that good either as the next successor should be announced by then.

Funny you mention NSW year 7 and 8 won’t be that good due to the next console right? Wel let’s see how that treated 3ds shall we? 

YEAR: 3DS ———— NSW

Year5: 2.189.900 — 5.800.000 

Year6: 1.874.457 — 3.200.000 (-45% YoY)

Year7: 1.827.131 —  2.000.000 (-38% YoY)

Year8: 566.420 — 1.000.000 (-50% YoY)

what this tells you is that for 3ds even with NSW announced in oct of year 6 and released in March of year 7, 3ds still sold that year 1.8mil with 0.56mil afterwards. Now look at NSW with not even that low numbers. With those estimates I have that would mean almost 30mil and that’s unlikely since that’s more of the floor



Farsala on 30 October 2021
tbone51 said:
Farsala said:

I compare to the DS, since people expect DS numbers, 33m.

The 3DS had an artificial sales curve due to the first year price cut. But it still represents just how hard consoles may drop in Japan.

NSW year 7 and 8 probably won't be that good either as the next successor should be announced by then.

Funny you mention NSW year 7 and 8 won’t be that good due to the next console right? Wel let’s see how that treated 3ds shall we? 

YEAR: 3DS ———— NSW

Year5: 2.189.900 — 5.800.000 

Year6: 1.874.457 — 3.200.000 (-45% YoY)

Year7: 1.827.131 —  2.000.000 (-38% YoY)

Year8: 566.420 — 1.000.000 (-50% YoY)

what this tells you is that for 3ds even with NSW announced in oct of year 6 and released in March of year 7, 3ds still sold that year 1.8mil with 0.56mil afterwards. Now look at NSW with not even that low numbers. With those estimates I have that would mean almost 30mil and that’s unlikely since that’s more of the floor

Another thing to take into account is that the NSW is the indirect successor to the 3DS.

While the successor of the NSW will be the direct successor in all likelihood.

But I suppose, Nintendo could release an innovative, but non-hybrid home console. In that case it could be seen as an indirect successor. Nintendo would then very likely want to keep shipping out more NSW.

I still think 33m is out of reach. 30m, there is definitely more of a chance.