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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu sales: Week 43, 2021 - (18th Oct - 24th Oct)

S.Peelman on 30 October 2021

For what it's worth, I think GameBoy and DS can rest easy, Switch isn't going to make it to those. I also think both globally and in Japan, Switch has peaked either this or last year. Which year is still up in the air though. I don't see, even with the releases of big games, 2022 win in either of these regions due to games having less and less impact on hardware as a system ages and because the system ages to begin with.



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src on 30 October 2021
chakkra said:
src said:

Retailers topped Xbox sections BECAUSE no one was buying them. Not the other way round. The fact is PS5/XSX can be sold overseas at 1.5-2x the MSRP price, meaning scalpers can make profit even by shipping across the world.

There is no way a console with 0.03 attach ratio is in demand by actual players. Unless you are of the theory that Gamepass is taking off in Japan.

How the heck do you not see the contradiction in those two statements?

If a console is not "in demand by actual players," then who the heck is paying "1.5-2x the MSRP price"???

Edit: And yes, I know you mean scalpers are selling it overseas, but I still don't understand why would Microsoft send those units to a country where people are supposedly not buying them instead of sending them directly to those countries where people are willing to pay "1.5-2x the MSRP price"

If you knew then why did you ask?

1.5x2 MSRP is overseas demand. Scalpers ship to overseas and can still get profit.



Dulfite on 30 October 2021
S.Peelman said:

For what it's worth, I think GameBoy and DS can rest easy, Switch isn't going to make it to those. I also think both globally and in Japan, Switch has peaked either this or last year. Which year is still up in the air though. I don't see, even with the releases of big games, 2022 win in either of these regions due to games having less and less impact on hardware as a system ages and because the system ages to begin with.

Didn't Gameboy sell like 115 million? You don't think Switch will sell that much? Or are you just talking Japan?



Dulfite on 30 October 2021
noshten said:

There are two main reasons why someone would expect Switch to slow down, first would be Nintendo shifting development resources to a different console and second being strong competition.

Total Hardware Per Year Japan / % for Market Leader

2010 - 9.097.975 / 32% DS​
2011 - 9.768.091 / 44% 3DS​
2012 - 9.583.382 / 57% 3DS​
2013 - 8.333.597 / 59% 3DS​
2014 - 6.466.874 / 49% 3DS​
2015 - 5.781.221 / 40% 3DS​
2016 - 5.077.985 / 41% 3DS​
2017 - 7.304.313 / 45% Switch​
2018 - 5.907.046 / 59% Switch​
2019 - 5.936.130 / 76% Switch​
2020 - 7.190.342 / 87% Switch​
2021 - 5.348.407 / 80% Switch
As we can see Switch is doing some unprecedented things in Japan , and this will be the 3rd year in a row the hardware market grows, while Switch is by far and away the market leader. For it to fall to below 5 million next year it would have to mean one of two things
  • Successor is announced and launches in the fall of 2022
  • PlayStation 5 all of the sudden starts to catch on in the country

Both of these are unlikely, so we are looking at a third year in a row where Switch will achieve over 80% market share in terms of hardware and second year in a row it will achieve more than 90% of software sales. So we are likely to see another year with at minimum 5 million units sold, and even if a successor launches in 2023 we are still unlikely to see a huge drop in sales as it's more likely that Switch remains over 3 million units sold. So end of 2023 we would be looking at a minimum of 31 million units, so within touching distance of the DS/GBA. 

The only time Hardware Sales in Japan dropped below 5.7 million was in 2016 - an year where the two games that managed to be surpass 1 million were on the 3DS a device which Nintendo was no longer supporting - Sun / Moon; Yo-kai 3 were Pokemon Co & Level 5 Games. Compare that to next year we have Splatoon 3 which is likely going the 2nd biggest launch on the Switch in Japan, Arceus which should be able to do Pokemon Lets Go numbers, Breath of the Wild sequel thats likely to be the fastest selling Zelda title in Japan and Kirby another potential game to surpass 1 million. 

Nintendo also faces the least amount of competition since 1994. The anemic performance of PS5 software which is at a level of X360, with most logical explanation that units are being resold outside of Japan for a profit. With chip shortages expected to continue in 2023 if demand outside of Japan continues to make reselling PS5 profitable than the situation will continue to get worse for the PS ecosystem as PS4 continues its decline and is discontinued. 

Finally there is the not so small matter of third party support: 

Famitsu Switch 3rd Parties 2017-2020

  1. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 1.702.921
  2. Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 1.233.023
  3. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 592.940
  4. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 554.560
  5. Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 544.467
  6. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) - 362.539
  7. Yo-kai Watch 4 (Level 5) - 358.356
  8. Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate* (Capcom) - 309.596
  9. Dragon Quest Builders 2 (Square Enix) - 308.893
  10. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 304.963
  11. Super Bomberman R (Konami) - 275.029
  12. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 269.648
  13. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball (Konami) - 225.614
  14. Octopath Traveller (Square Enix) - 193.780
  15. Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (Bandai Namco) - 185.990
  16. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 (Bandai Namco) - 181.090
  17. Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (Marvelous) - 164.944
  18. Puyo Puyo Tetris S (Sega) - 154.573
  19. Super Dragon Ball Heroes: World Mission (Bandai Namco) - 145.720
  20. Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 141.889
  21. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 137.513
  22. FIFA 18 (EA) - 122.998
  23. Derby Stallion (Game Addict) - 117.995
  24. Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 112.277
  25. Doraemon: Story of Seasons (Bandai Namco) - 112.104
  26. Pro Baseball Famista Evolution (Bandai Namco) - 110.954
  27. The Snack World: TreJarers Gold (Level 5) - 109.955
  28. Fortnite (Warner) - 103.130
  29. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 97.056
  30. Dragon Ball FighterZ (Bandai Namco) - 92.697

TOTAL: 9.327.214

Famitsu Switch 3rd Parties 2021 Top 30(Known Sales):

  1. Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 2.326.057
  2. Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 1.164.181
  3. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 540.198
  4. Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 281.140
  5. Monster Hunter Stories 2 (Capcom) - 227.554
  6. Baseball Spirits 2021 (Konami) - 195.906
  7. Crayon Shin-Chan (Neos) - 183.733
  8. Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 136.091
  9. Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous) - 127.968
  10. Yu-Gi-Oh! Rush Duel (Konami) - 127.221
  11. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 115.610
  12. Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 115.375
  13. Tsukihime (Aniplex) - 89.916
  14. Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 85.310
  15. Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 72.796
  16. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 70.964
  17. Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 68.180
  18. Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 65.620
  19. Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai Namco) - 64.247
  20. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 62.119
  21. Samurai Warriors 5 (Koei Tecmo) - 61.350
  22. Minecraft Dungeons (Microsoft) - 59.256
  23. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) - 40.688
  24. Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 36.105
  25. Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) - 35.273
  26. Densha de Go!! (Square Enix) - 29.624
  27. Apex Legends: Champion Edition (Electronic Arts) - 29.057
  28. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 27.539
  29. Disgaea 6: Defiance of Destiny (Nippon Ichi) - 25.744
  30. Jack Jeanne (Broccoli) - 25.518

TOTAL: 6.489.876

Its very likely that in 2021 third party games can end up very close to what they achieved for the previous four years; their support will continue to accelerate in 2022. In the past it was this third party support that enabled PSP, PS2 to be very successful and have a huge quantity of exclusive titles coming out every week. Now with the PS5 failing to even match X360 numbers, what exactly options do most third party publishers out of Japan have? The growth in software market share Nintendo has been able to achieve on the Switch at the PS4/PS5's expense is already started to be felt. This year in the Top 50 of third party games over 80% will end up on the Switch; last year it was around 50%. 

All these factors combined put the Switch in a very unprecedented position compared to prior consoles in Japan. 

I really appreciate this analysis! Thank you!



Wyrdness on 30 October 2021
S.Peelman said:

For what it's worth, I think GameBoy and DS can rest easy, Switch isn't going to make it to those. I also think both globally and in Japan, Switch has peaked either this or last year. Which year is still up in the air though. I don't see, even with the releases of big games, 2022 win in either of these regions due to games having less and less impact on hardware as a system ages and because the system ages to begin with.

Switch will pass GB next year globally easy, by the end of this Holiday season under current momentum Switch will hit around 103m that's 15m away from the GB's LT sales I don't think you thought this prediction through.



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Norion on 30 October 2021

An important factor to consider is saturation since there are only so many people in Japan who will buy a console. Switch will head into 2022 at 23m so I expect saturation to kick in soon slowing down sales. The strong software releases will help soften the decline though so reaching the DS there is possible.



S.Peelman on 30 October 2021
Wyrdness said:
S.Peelman said:

For what it's worth, I think GameBoy and DS can rest easy, Switch isn't going to make it to those. I also think both globally and in Japan, Switch has peaked either this or last year. Which year is still up in the air though. I don't see, even with the releases of big games, 2022 win in either of these regions due to games having less and less impact on hardware as a system ages and because the system ages to begin with.

Switch will pass GB next year globally easy, by the end of this Holiday season under current momentum Switch will hit around 103m that's 15m away from the GB's LT sales I don't think you thought this prediction through.
Dulfite said:

Didn't Gameboy sell like 115 million? You don't think Switch will sell that much? Or are you just talking Japan?

118.69M, but obviously in a Japan thread I'm talking Japan sales.

@Wyrdness: Did you think this reply through?



Farsala on 30 October 2021

The main reason for a popular console to decline is due to saturation of the market.

Japan has this issue severely due to its aging population. The purchasing power of the big spenders has declined over time and that leads to less people buying stuff and economic recession. During the 1980s and 1990s innovation was rampant for Japan and modern video game consoles came to be, as well as an active rich population to support it. The video game market in particular has declined quite strongly in terms of HW. The time when people spend money is usually between the age of 15 and 64. This proportion of population peaked in 1990 at 69.7%, and stayed strong through 2000 at 68.1%, and then declined to 63.8% in 2010. 2020 reported to be 59.4%.

Point being the total market has declined too much for the Switch to achieve numbers like the DS. This is without accounting for China undoubtably scalping the Switch in the early years, leading to less actual Japanese owners in reality. Nintendo also wants more profit per system than with the DS, so will keep prices high. It isn't only Nintendo consoles of course. Xbox, Playstation, Sega, and Arcades have also declined in Japan.



tbone51 on 30 October 2021
Farsala said:
PAOerfulone said:

TBF, 2022 is looking very promising for the Switch in Japan:

- Higher stock for the OLED model.
- Pokemon Legends Arceus
- Splatoon 3 
- Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak expansion
- Kirby and the Forgotten Land
- Breath of the Wild 2

And smaller stuff like Triangle Strategy and Bayonetta 3 to back up the big guns.

And that’s just the stuff we know about! We’re due for a new Fire Emblem, DKC, 3D Mario, and/or maybe even Pokemon Gen 9.

I’m aware that the Switch is beginning to reach the latter phase of its cycle, but 2022 has the potential, at least in Japan, to be its best year to date.

System sellers become less effective the older a system gets, especially in Japan.

The DS shipped in 14 quarters 22.38m, so sell through would be about the Switch numbers now.

Switch is now on its 20th quarter.

So about 6 quarters behind, 33m is definitely going to be difficult.

That’s one way of lookin at it but it doesn’t mean it’s correct. If you apply the same logic to 3ds and NSW, then NSW looks like it’ll end just above 26mil, and hit 27mil or so. NSW and the 3DS just crossed paths and was about the same after 17 quarters. 2 quarters later and NSW is 2mil+ ahead of 3ds without this quarter ending yet. In fact weekly sales NSW year 5 is above 3ds year 5/6/7 combine.

That said the difference between NSW and DS is the sales trajectory, as DS is somewhere around 5.5mil ahead aligned, DS year 6/7/8 are the following (MC numbers)

2010: 2.872.621 
2011: 657.815 
2012: 68.973 

(DS has an extra quarter though)



Kakadu18 on 30 October 2021

Last year the Switch came close to 6mil in the end. If it sells similarly from now until the end of the year as last year it would sell another 1.5mil and end up at 23.1mil.

Here's what I think the next few year could look like (assuming that the next console launches in 2024):

2022 - 4.5-5mil
2023 - 3.5mil
2024 - 2mil

And with that the Switch would be over 33mil.