33m? How? Would take another year like 2021 and 2020 at least.

As a reminder the Switch turns 5 years old in March 2022.

TBF, 2022 is looking very promising for the Switch in Japan:

- Higher stock for the OLED model.
- Pokemon Legends Arceus
- Splatoon 3 
- Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak expansion
- Kirby and the Forgotten Land
- Breath of the Wild 2

And smaller stuff like Triangle Strategy and Bayonetta 3 to back up the big guns.

And that’s just the stuff we know about! We’re due for a new Fire Emblem, DKC, 3D Mario, and/or maybe even Pokemon Gen 9.

I’m aware that the Switch is beginning to reach the latter phase of its cycle, but 2022 has the potential, at least in Japan, to be its best year to date.

Switch outselling DS is 50/50 at this point. It can definitely go either way.
2022 will be key. Another 5+ million year will all but guarantee that Switch will become #1 in Japan.

System sellers become less effective the older a system gets, especially in Japan.

The DS shipped in 14 quarters 22.38m, so sell through would be about the Switch numbers now.

Switch is now on its 20th quarter.

So about 6 quarters behind, 33m is definitely going to be difficult.

No system before has been a hybrid so the pool of consumers still to buy is higher plus the 3DS late in its life had system sellers revitalize its run leading to it having an nine year run and Switch is likely going to have an equivalent run and it's going into a fifth year that's as packed as its launch year. The system is still having supply issues four years later soon to be five even the DS didn't have that, one of the reasons for the DS' fast progression was the dead cheap price as at launch it was $150/£99 so the fact that Switch is only 6 quarters behind highlights the momentum it has without having that.

Famitsu Top 50 2021(Unofficial Ranking)

1. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 2.326.057
2. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) – 1.164.181
3. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 908.393 
4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure – 792.729
5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 646.636
6. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) – 540.198
7. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 531.776
8. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 456.542
9. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + EP (Pokemon Co.) - 337.258
10. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 298.397
11. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 281.140
12. [NSW] New Pokemon Snap (Pokemon Co.) - 276.800
13. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 277.912
14. [NSW] Splatoon 2 + EP - 277.493
15. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword HD - 263.674
16. [NSW] Miitopia - 248.003
17. [NSW] Game Builder Garage - 243.566
18. [NSW] Monster Hunter Stories 2 (Capcom) - 227.554
19. [PS4] Tales of Arise (Bandai Namco) - 213.474
20. [NSW] Baseball Spirits 2021 (Konami) - 195.906
21. [PS4] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 191.983
22. [NSW] Crayon Shin-Chan (Neos) - 183.733
23. [NSW] Mario Golf: Super Rush - 182.579
24. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild + EP - 166.651
25. [PS4] NieR Replicant (Square Enix) - 158.265
26. [NSW] WarioWare: Get It Together! - 154.524 
27. [PS4] Lost Judgment (Sega) - 148.556
28. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 136.091
29. [NSW] Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous) - 127.968
30. [NSW] Yu-Gi-Oh! Rush Duel (Konami) - 127.221
31. [NSW] Metroid Dread - 119.018 
32. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 115.610
33. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 115.375
34. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 114.445
35. [PS4] Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba (Aniplex) - 110.845
36. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 104.782
37. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 103.273
38. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 97.715
39. [NSW] Tsukihime (Aniplex) - 89.916
40. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 85.310
41. [PS4] Tsukihime (Aniplex) - 80.042
42. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 74.949
43. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 72.796
44. [PS4] Samurai Warriors 5 (Koei Tecmo) - 72.727
45. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 70.964
46. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 68.180
47. [PS5] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 67.210
48. [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 65.620
49. [NSW] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai Namco) - 64.247
50. [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 62.119

TOTAL: 13.840.403

TOTAL NSW: 12.797.301 (92.5%)

TOTAL PS4/PS5: 1.043.102 (7.5%)

Next week is the launch of Mario Party & Super Robot Wars 30

The only PS5 game is in danger of leaving the Top 50 in two weeks time.

Top 10 Publishers:

1. Nintendo - 6.063.057 (43.8%)
2. Capcom - 2.812.594 (20.3%)
3. Konami - 1.487.308 (10.7%)
4. Pokemon Co - 614.058 (4.4%)
5. Microsoft – 540.198 (3.9%)
6. Bandai Namco - 489.661 (3.5%)
7. Marvelous - 474.728 (3.4%)
8. Square Enix - 409.966 (3%)
9. Aniplex - 280.803 (2%)
10. Neos - 183.733 (1.3%)

Koei Tecmo exits the Top 10 Publishers replaced by Aniplex as the Switch version of Samurai Warriors 5 exited the Top 50. 

So you think the Switch will match the DS too?

Supply issues aren't guaranteed to be fixed. Price cuts aren't guaranteed to happen. Revision 3 is already out much like Nintendo's previous handhelds, the oomph won't be so much in year 5.

2022 has no chance of being up YoY. I wish people would stop making such extreme positive predictions for the Switch because suddenly the real results turn from great to somehow less than expected or disappointing. Whether that be "Switch will outsell PS2" or "Switch 2021 will be best year for any console ever!" Or "switch will sell more in 2022 in Japan."

Switch is old and has peaked whether that is 2020 or 2021 for Japan.

These aren't realistic expectations. Switch is a monster but this is just over egging it and turning greatness into "not as good as some people thought."

Switch has combined factors they didn't starting with one unified userbase consolidating all of Nintendo's focus thus leading to the strong line up next year, an uncontested monopoly on one side of the market and most importantly a longer active run then prior platforms. The oomph will be higher than what prior platforms had in their fifth year it doesn't need to match 2021 or 2020 because Nintendo is pushing for a longer platform life as this is the middle of the platform's life and their handling of things suggests as such, price cuts will happen when they see fit they're outselling all other platforms 5 to 1 combined right now with out one an example is in Europe where Switch got a slight price cut as its the lower performing region of the major ones.

There are two main reasons why someone would expect Switch to slow down, first would be Nintendo shifting development resources to a different console and second being strong competition.

Total Hardware Per Year Japan / % for Market Leader

• Successor is announced and launches in the fall of 2022
• PlayStation 5 all of the sudden starts to catch on in the country

Both of these are unlikely, so we are looking at a third year in a row where Switch will achieve over 80% market share in terms of hardware and second year in a row it will achieve more than 90% of software sales. So we are likely to see another year with at minimum 5 million units sold, and even if a successor launches in 2023 we are still unlikely to see a huge drop in sales as it's more likely that Switch remains over 3 million units sold. So end of 2023 we would be looking at a minimum of 31 million units, so within touching distance of the DS/GBA. 

The only time Hardware Sales in Japan dropped below 5.7 million was in 2016 - an year where the two games that managed to be surpass 1 million were on the 3DS a device which Nintendo was no longer supporting - Sun / Moon; Yo-kai 3 were Pokemon Co & Level 5 Games. Compare that to next year we have Splatoon 3 which is likely going the 2nd biggest launch on the Switch in Japan, Arceus which should be able to do Pokemon Lets Go numbers, Breath of the Wild sequel thats likely to be the fastest selling Zelda title in Japan and Kirby another potential game to surpass 1 million. 

Nintendo also faces the least amount of competition since 1994. The anemic performance of PS5 software which is at a level of X360, with most logical explanation that units are being resold outside of Japan for a profit. With chip shortages expected to continue in 2023 if demand outside of Japan continues to make reselling PS5 profitable than the situation will continue to get worse for the PS ecosystem as PS4 continues its decline and is discontinued. 

Finally there is the not so small matter of third party support: 

Famitsu Switch 3rd Parties 2017-2020

1. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 1.702.921
2. Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 1.233.023
3. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 592.940
4. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 554.560
5. Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 544.467
6. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) - 362.539
7. Yo-kai Watch 4 (Level 5) - 358.356
8. Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate* (Capcom) - 309.596
9. Dragon Quest Builders 2 (Square Enix) - 308.893
10. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 304.963
11. Super Bomberman R (Konami) - 275.029
12. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 269.648
13. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball (Konami) - 225.614
14. Octopath Traveller (Square Enix) - 193.780
15. Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (Bandai Namco) - 185.990
16. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 (Bandai Namco) - 181.090
17. Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (Marvelous) - 164.944
18. Puyo Puyo Tetris S (Sega) - 154.573
19. Super Dragon Ball Heroes: World Mission (Bandai Namco) - 145.720
20. Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 141.889
21. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 137.513
22. FIFA 18 (EA) - 122.998
23. Derby Stallion (Game Addict) - 117.995
24. Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 112.277
25. Doraemon: Story of Seasons (Bandai Namco) - 112.104
26. Pro Baseball Famista Evolution (Bandai Namco) - 110.954
27. The Snack World: TreJarers Gold (Level 5) - 109.955
28. Fortnite (Warner) - 103.130
29. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 97.056
30. Dragon Ball FighterZ (Bandai Namco) - 92.697

TOTAL: 9.327.214

Famitsu Switch 3rd Parties 2021 Top 30(Known Sales):

1. Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 2.326.057
2. Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 1.164.181
3. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 540.198
4. Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 281.140
5. Monster Hunter Stories 2 (Capcom) - 227.554
6. Baseball Spirits 2021 (Konami) - 195.906
7. Crayon Shin-Chan (Neos) - 183.733
8. Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 136.091
9. Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous) - 127.968
10. Yu-Gi-Oh! Rush Duel (Konami) - 127.221
11. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 115.610
12. Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 115.375
13. Tsukihime (Aniplex) - 89.916
14. Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 85.310
15. Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 72.796
16. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 70.964
17. Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 68.180
18. Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 65.620
19. Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai Namco) - 64.247
20. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 62.119
21. Samurai Warriors 5 (Koei Tecmo) - 61.350
22. Minecraft Dungeons (Microsoft) - 59.256
23. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) - 40.688
24. Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 36.105
25. Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) - 35.273
26. Densha de Go!! (Square Enix) - 29.624
27. Apex Legends: Champion Edition (Electronic Arts) - 29.057
28. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 27.539
29. Disgaea 6: Defiance of Destiny (Nippon Ichi) - 25.744
30. Jack Jeanne (Broccoli) - 25.518

TOTAL: 6.489.876

Its very likely that in 2021 third party games can end up very close to what they achieved for the previous four years; their support will continue to accelerate in 2022. In the past it was this third party support that enabled PSP, PS2 to be very successful and have a huge quantity of exclusive titles coming out every week. Now with the PS5 failing to even match X360 numbers, what exactly options do most third party publishers out of Japan have? The growth in software market share Nintendo has been able to achieve on the Switch at the PS4/PS5's expense is already started to be felt. This year in the Top 50 of third party games over 80% will end up on the Switch; last year it was around 50%. 

All these factors combined put the Switch in a very unprecedented position compared to prior consoles in Japan.