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Farsala said:

System sellers become less effective the older a system gets, especially in Japan.

The DS shipped in 14 quarters 22.38m, so sell through would be about the Switch numbers now.

Switch is now on its 20th quarter.

So about 6 quarters behind, 33m is definitely going to be difficult.

No system before has been a hybrid so the pool of consumers still to buy is higher plus the 3DS late in its life had system sellers revitalize its run leading to it having an nine year run and Switch is likely going to have an equivalent run and it's going into a fifth year that's as packed as its launch year. The system is still having supply issues four years later soon to be five even the DS didn't have that, one of the reasons for the DS' fast progression was the dead cheap price as at launch it was $150/£99 so the fact that Switch is only 6 quarters behind highlights the momentum it has without having that.