Link to the article here.

Switch vs DS Sales Comparison - September 2021

This monthly series compares the aligned worldwide sales of the Nintendo Switch and the Nintendo DS.

The DS launched in November 2004 in North America, December 2004 in Japan, and March 2005 in Europe, while the Nintendo Switch launched worldwide in March 2017. Therefore, the holiday periods for the two consoles do not lineup, which is why there are big increases and decreases.

Switch Vs. DS Global:

Gap change in latest month: 137,117 - DS

Gap change over last 12 months: 3,103,906 - DS

Total Lead: 10,509,890 - DS

Switch Total Sales: 91,586,736

DS Total Sales: 102,096,626

September 2021 is the 55th month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for. During the latest month, the gap grew in favor of the DS by 137,117 units when compared to the Switch during the same timeframe. In the last 12 months, the DS has outsold the Switch by 3.10 million units. The DS is ahead of the Switch by 10.51 million units.

The 55th month on sale for the Nintendo Switch is September 2021, while for the DS it is May 2009. The Switch has sold 91.59 million units, while the DS sold 102.10 million units during the same timeframe.

The Nintendo DS sold 154.02 million units lifetime. The Nintendo Switch is currently 62.43 million units behind the lifetime sales of the DS.

This is the contest that I find the most interesting.  Right now it looks like the DS is ahead by 10.5m units, but Switch is about to get it's holiday season.  After that it will be pretty close.  Also DS really only has about one more good year in it.  The Switch just needs to keep up and it will pass it fairly easily in a year or two.  Given how strong Switch sales are in spite of its age, I think it's very likely it will outleg the DS.

Granted DS did drop off very quickly after the release of the 3DS, but Switch still has to sell more than 60 million more units from here on out to overtake it lifetime.

I can see an outside chance of that happening, if there is no Switch successor until 2024 or later, and they manage to keep up a steady stream of strong software support as well as price cuts until then, but it seems more likely to me that Nintendo will choose to keep profit margins high, that software will slow once their core teams move on to making games for its successor, or that said successor arrives before 2024, or some combination therein.

It's currently selling around 30m units a year.  60 million is not that much at the current pace.  Obviously, I don't expect it to stay at this rate forever, but I don't expect it to drop off a cliff either.  A super sharp sales decline would be 30m + 20m + 10m for the next 36 months, and that would total to 60m.  That assumes Switch sells nothing after Sept 2024 which it obviously will.  Another 60m is not that much at this point in the Switch's life.

It's had one year that was close to 30 million; it remains to be seen if this year will be. It could also be replaced and cut short abruptly like the DS was.

Your argument is that the likely scenario is for Switch to fall off a cliff.  That is not the likely scenario.  I suppose there is an outside possibility of that happening, but that is not the likely scenario.  The likely scenario is that the Switch will have gradual YoY drops after this year.  If it does that then it will outsell the DS easily.

Also, Nintendo is not going to cut the Switch short.  They did that with previous systems, like the DS, because they had to juggle both home and handheld systems.  They don't have to do that anymore.  The NES launched in 1983 and it still shipped over 1m systems in 1994.  It stayed relevant for a very long time, and a big reason it did is that when it launched, it was Nintendo's only system. 

Switch is looking to have a similar lifetime.  It is peaking late.  They only have one system to worry about currently.  They still haven't even cut the price yet.  Even when the "Switch 2" releases, the Switch will keep selling.  It has too much momentum behind it, and Nintendo has no reason to kill it off early.  They kept supporting the 3DS for a couple of years after the Switch released.  You can be sure they will keep supporting the Switch after the Switch 2 is released.

On top of all of this, there is a decent chance Switch will pass DS's lifetime total even before "Switch 2" is released.  The likely scenario is that Switch will outsell the DS.

With PS4 sales dropping a lot faster than anyone expected, thoughts on dropping the "PS4 and Xbox One vs PS3 and Xbox 360" and "PS4 vs DS in Europe" comparison articles?

PS4 and Xbox One need to sell a little over 6 million to pass the PS3 and Xbox 360. PS4 in Europe needs to sell a bit over 3 million to pass the DS.

With PS4 sales dropping a lot faster than anyone expected, thoughts on dropping the "PS4 and Xbox One vs PS3 and Xbox 360" and "PS4 vs DS in Europe" comparison articles?