Kyuu said:
I don't but that's how I remember it, which part are you denying? I may have misremembered a detail or two but your general line of thought was that PS5 would be practically doomed if launched as late as 2020 or 21, and Switch would hog the majority of their consumers by dominating in 3rd parties or something along these lines lol. |
It helps to link to the actual posts that you are referring to. Most of these things some "kind of" like things I said, but the details are off. For example, I've been saying for a long time that Switch will be the best selling system of all time. I've said that it would get lots of third party games. I've said that it would dominate the Japanese software charts, and that even Switch third party games would dominate the Japanese charts over Playstation third party games. I've said these things in a variety of ways in a variety of threads. If you have a specific post you are referring to, then I'd need a link to discuss it.
You know memory can be a funny thing. Your mind may have unconsciously changed what I said, when my predictions started coming right. That is why it is better to just link to the post.
I'm not perfect though. Here is a post I made that Zippy6 linked to.
| The_Liquid_Laser said: I voted 10-11.9m. No way is PS5 selling better than PS4. I can't believe how many people actually think this will happen. Some things to consider: |
Looks like my prediction is going to be wrong for PS5 2021. It hasn't changed my view on how PS5 is going to sell lifetime though.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox
PS4's time ahead of Switch in the US is running out, especially as the former has slowed to a crawl.
RolStoppable said:
That's a gap that can be closed within the next three months: ~500k in October, ~1.5m in November, ~2m in December. |
How much did Switch sell in Oct-Dec last year?
When was the last PS5 vs PS4 comparison? I swear PS4 had pulled ahead launch aligned in September with the Destiny boost but now I'm looking at numbers it seems PS5 is like 0.5m ahead? If comparing Oct 30th 2020 to Nov 1st 2014 numbers is the right one, I assume it is.
Crazy.
Kyuu said:
The last time I brought a year old post here, the thread became a warzone. Can you imagine what happens if I quoted things you said years ago and put it on an irrelevant thread? :P I found the thread where you DOOMED PS5 in a series of posts. Minor correction: It was from 2018, not late 2017. So "starting from next year" was your reference to 2019 and not 2018. I stand corrected but the point still stands, we're entering 2022 and there are no signs of Switch's 3rd party improvement being anywhere near a "threat" to Playstation systems which continue to get a ton of notable Japanese games skipping Nintendo hardware, and the number should logically rise as we exit CrossGen. 3DS/Vita stuff and sports games surprise no one and are a non-threat. |
If you don't see PS5 being threatened in Japan, then you aren't paying attention. Switch games have dominated the Famitsu top 30 all year, both 1st party and 3rd party. PS5 games, on the other hand, fall off the chart after the 2nd week.
Most Japanese games now get a version on the Switch and a fair amount are Switch exclusive. Each year this is going to trend even more in the Switch's favor, because third party companies are not going to want to make games for a system where they will lose a ton of money. The player base in Japan is all on the Switch, and they have little reason to get a PS5. The games end up going where the player base is.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox
Most Japanese third parties are already supporting the Switch and selling mostly there too. The ones that sell better on Playstation, like Samurai Warriors 5, have better legs on Switch and sell better there than the franchise historically did. With each year the entire Japanese market leans more and more towards the Switch for obvious reasons.
The only big Japanese developers that stubbornly don't release their games on the Switch are Bandai Namco studios.
How much that benefits Switch hardware sales exactly I don't know, but it definitly doesn't help PS.
Kyuu said:
You insisted PS5 was in deep trouble on a global level... not just in Japan. 1. Japan is a tiny market for globally relevant Japanese 3rd party games with the exceptions of Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest, both of which performed super well on Playstation 4 despite its lack of portability and the relatively small install base. 2. The Vita-esque and indie games that are charting there are a non-factor in the rest of the world, where the vast majority of revenue comes from. Will Square Enix, Capcom, and From Software look at Momotaro Dentetsu's numbers and go "Let's bring our AA and AAA games there. We can definitely replicate that level of success! To hell with ambitious games and global sales!"? The clear answer is no. 3. PS4 is now a dead platform and PS5 is yet to take off (scalpers/exports). Switch dominating the charts is a given, especially when half the list consists of 1st party titles. 4. Last I checked, digital ratios were much higher on Playstation systems, and could be even higher now on PS5 which has a Digital Edition. Physical charts don't paint the whole picture; the information we have is incomplete. Would adding digital sales save Playstation numbers from embarrassment? No, but it will make a difference in multiplat comparisons.
Long gone are the days of Japan (as a region) representing a large share of their own games' sales. Switch is failing to change this because form factor wasn't Playstation's only weakness. Nintendo's cultural significance, reputation, and legs won't automatically carry over to the 3rd party stuff. Monster Hunter grew massive in the west, and yet it somewhat declined in Japan. Global 3rd party trends just don't apply to Japan regardless of platforms. Nintendo's titles are on a league of their own, they aren't confined by the limits of 3rd parties, Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter included.
The majority of million selling or fairly high budget "home console tier" games/franchises continue to skip Nintendo platforms. Not counting Sony funded/published games: He thought Switch would be the go to system for Japanese third parties on a global level. About time we acknowledge that the current Japanese chart trends have little to no bearing on the decisions of major publishers. And multiplats aren't outperforming their Playstation counterpart to convincing levels in Japan; PS4 is a DEAD platform and PS5's situation is riddled with questions. Most multiplats on PS4 + Switch are selling worse or much worse than their predecessors on peak PS4 + Vita (But digital sales have grown since, and we have no access to that data); peak PS4 + Vita era was a joke in an of itself when compared to older generations. Install bases in Japan don't dictate support, 3rd party sales don't scale very well with Nintendo install bases. There are multiple factors Japanese publishers look into before deciding where their games go. This explains the countless titles skipping Switch. Even Xbox One is better supported (for globally relevant Japanese games). Xbox One is a nonexistant console in Japan, but it's carried by its ease of porting and moderate global success. It is clear that Playstation + PC continue being the home for relevant Japanese games. Capcom expects 50% of their sales to come from PC in the not-distant future. Which would be huge for Capcom because PC is 100% digital and platform taxes are smaller there. None of this fits gracefully into The_Liquid_Laser's wild expectations lol. https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/236417/will-this-be-the-last-year-ps4-outsells-switch/21/ |
"Relevant Japanese titles" is a confirmation bias term. Q: How do we know if a title isn't relevant? A: If it's on the Switch then it is immediately counted as not relevant. You only count the games that reinforce your point and none of the others (i.e. the majority). That's confirmation bias.
In reality every title matters. Ten games that sell 1 million copies are worth 1 game that sells 10 million copies. Having a lot of little games actually does matter. In most generations, the system with the really big selling titles have the majority of the small titles too. It might appear the small titles don't matter, but that is not actually the case. All of those little Japanese titles going over to the Switch actually matter.
Historically, there is one well known system that had big selling games but very few little games. It was the N64. The PS5 has a whole lot in common with the N64.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox
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