VGChartz Sales Comparison Charts September 2021 Discussion Thread

[The_Liquid_Laser]

curl-6 said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

It's currently selling around 30m units a year.  60 million is not that much at the current pace.  Obviously, I don't expect it to stay at this rate forever, but I don't expect it to drop off a cliff either.  A super sharp sales decline would be 30m + 20m + 10m for the next 36 months, and that would total to 60m.  That assumes Switch sells nothing after Sept 2024 which it obviously will.  Another 60m is not that much at this point in the Switch's life.

It's had one year that was close to 30 million; it remains to be seen if this year will be. It could also be replaced and cut short abruptly like the DS was.

Your argument is that the likely scenario is for Switch to fall off a cliff.  That is not the likely scenario.  I suppose there is an outside possibility of that happening, but that is not the likely scenario.  The likely scenario is that the Switch will have gradual YoY drops after this year.  If it does that then it will outsell the DS easily.

Also, Nintendo is not going to cut the Switch short.  They did that with previous systems, like the DS, because they had to juggle both home and handheld systems.  They don't have to do that anymore.  The NES launched in 1983 and it still shipped over 1m systems in 1994.  It stayed relevant for a very long time, and a big reason it did is that when it launched, it was Nintendo's only system. 

Switch is looking to have a similar lifetime.  It is peaking late.  They only have one system to worry about currently.  They still haven't even cut the price yet.  Even when the "Switch 2" releases, the Switch will keep selling.  It has too much momentum behind it, and Nintendo has no reason to kill it off early.  They kept supporting the 3DS for a couple of years after the Switch released.  You can be sure they will keep supporting the Switch after the Switch 2 is released.

On top of all of this, there is a decent chance Switch will pass DS's lifetime total even before "Switch 2" is released.  The likely scenario is that Switch will outsell the DS.