Your argument is that the likely scenario is for Switch to fall off a cliff. That is not the likely scenario. I suppose there is an outside possibility of that happening, but that is not the likely scenario. The likely scenario is that the Switch will have gradual YoY drops after this year. If it does that then it will outsell the DS easily.
Also, Nintendo is not going to cut the Switch short. They did that with previous systems, like the DS, because they had to juggle both home and handheld systems. They don't have to do that anymore. The NES launched in 1983 and it still shipped over 1m systems in 1994. It stayed relevant for a very long time, and a big reason it did is that when it launched, it was Nintendo's only system.
Switch is looking to have a similar lifetime. It is peaking late. They only have one system to worry about currently. They still haven't even cut the price yet. Even when the "Switch 2" releases, the Switch will keep selling. It has too much momentum behind it, and Nintendo has no reason to kill it off early. They kept supporting the 3DS for a couple of years after the Switch released. You can be sure they will keep supporting the Switch after the Switch 2 is released.
On top of all of this, there is a decent chance Switch will pass DS's lifetime total even before "Switch 2" is released. The likely scenario is that Switch will outsell the DS.
I deeply hope that Nintendo doesn't cut the Switch short but their track record does not fill me with confidence. They've bailed on multiple very successful platforms prematurely. I don't trust them.Last edited by curl-6 - on 26 October 2021
Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.