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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Switch shipped 141.32M by 31.03.2024. LT sales expectations?


Lifetime sales expectations

Under 150M 2 8.00%
150-155M 6 24.00%
155-158M 2 8.00%
158-165M 12 48.00%
165M+ 3 12.00%

Let's see. Nintendo's forecast is 21M for FY 2022/23. That would make 128M until March 2023. I expect 14M in FY 2023/24, then 7M in the following and another 6M until end of life. That would make 155M in total (exactely what DS did).

I think I'm still on the pessimistic side, but it all depends on when Nintendo launches the successor and how they support Switch after the successor launch.

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I voted 145m-160m. But I think it will end up at the very high part of that range. Unless Nintendo releases a Switch 2 early, like say Spring 2024, which I definitely don't think will happen, Switch should beat PS2 for the record. So actually a bit over 160m by the time Nintendo stops production is certainly possible. I don't think there is any way it sells under 150m or over 170m.

At this point if it gets over 160m or not all comes down to when the successor launches and how well it does in the next fiscal year. If it's holiday 2024 and does only do about 14m that fiscal year it probably won't but if it's sometime in 2025 or does closer to 17-18m instead it probably will. Either way 150m is looking increasingly likely to be the minimum of what it'll do so there's a good chance it surpasses 160m.

Tbh 160 is looking quite plausible now people talking about a successor are thinking in terms of a traditional home platform not one that is a hybrid and has a monopoly on one side of the market. The monopoly gives them far more time than people realize in releasing a successor or a mythical pro model, for reference GB had a nine year run before the pro model variant in the GBC arrived so don't be surprised if a successor doesn't arrive until 2025.

Anything below 140 Million is pretty much impossible at this point. At the rate the Switch is going a safe bet should put it around 155 Million Units, so it will hover around the record for greatest selling console of all time.

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Ok, lets go with other prediction.
-2022 fy: 21~ Million, goint to 129 M
-2023 fy: launch a new switch model, about the same processing power, but with included chip for DLSS to output until 4k (switch pro, new, super, 4k, +, idk), aligned with zelda 2.
The declide would start to pick up due to saturation, but hard push on the new model for people replace their switch by the newer version. More 19 M sold, going to 148M.
-2024 fy: 16M. Starting to see bundles with switch sports and other games, Europe to get the last high numbers. 164 total.
-2025 fy: Sucessor launch. 10M. 174M
-2026 and beyond: 6M
180M LT.

Voted for 160m+. I imagine Nintendo will reach their goal for current FY, so I'm expecting Switch total sales to be over 128m by the end of March 2023. I also feel like we will get both BOTW 2 and a Switch revision (not Switch 2) in March 2023. If we do get a Switch revision early next year, then I don't see a successor launching until 2025 (Nintendo would probably prefer Holiday 2025, though I could see March 2025 working as well).

They'd probably sell about 17m between April 2023 and March 2024, putting them over 145m at the end of March 2024. Sales for April 2024 to March 2025 really depend on when the successor launches. If it launches in Holiday 2024, I could see Switch sales being about 8m that FY. Should easily be over 10m if the successor is pushed to 2025. After that, the Switch should hopefully leg it out to over 160m and become the best selling game system.

It will continue to sell untill a successor and eventually Nintendo can sell the lite for $90 and the Oled for $180 and a Nintendo selects line for all major first party games to keep sales up. 170 million + if they want it.

ShadowLink93 said:

It will continue to sell untill a successor and eventually Nintendo can sell the lite for $90 and the Oled for $180 and a Nintendo selects line for all major first party games to keep sales up. 170 million + if they want it.

Such deep price cuts wouldn't really have any benefit. I don't see that happening.

I believe the next one...

2022 125M
2023 142M (Zelda 2 Launch)
2024 155M (Next switch succesor's released)
2025 160M (From here, Switch will not be accounted for anymore)

So that will be my prediction