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Let's see. Nintendo's forecast is 21M for FY 2022/23. That would make 128M until March 2023. I expect 14M in FY 2023/24, then 7M in the following and another 6M until end of life. That would make 155M in total (exactely what DS did).

I think I'm still on the pessimistic side, but it all depends on when Nintendo launches the successor and how they support Switch after the successor launch.