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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Switch shipped 141.32M by 31.03.2024. LT sales expectations?


Lifetime sales expectations

Under 150M 2 8.00%
150-155M 6 24.00%
155-158M 2 8.00%
158-165M 12 48.00%
165M+ 3 12.00%

@javi741 I agree that a Spring 2023 release date is too soon (considering how big 2022 is shaping up to be), but I wouldn't expect a formal announcement more than a year ahead of time. Switch was announced early because of how bad 3DS & Wii U were doing. Like Sony & Microsoft with their 2 most recent systems, I feel like it would be in Nintendo's best interest to announce the system less than a year out from launch. So if it launches in Holiday 2024, I could see a 2024 announcement.

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Tough poll because I think it's going to end right around 135m so it's either the option below or above lol.

140-145mil, maybe more.

My last prediction was 140 plus which is still on track but now looking a bit conservative tbh I think it can now hit 150m at least with the run it's having.

Last edited by Wyrdness - on 07 November 2021

If it's drop curve follows wii's, between 150 and 165 million.

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It's weird there are still people in the 115 to 135 camp.

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Anything below 135M at this point is clownish at this point tbh, don't know why people think it still won't surpass 135M lol.

Link_Nines.XBC said:


Let me update my prediction to 150-160M, under the key assumption that the Switch 2 won't come out until 2024 (though reaching or getting close to 160M would require the successor to come out until late 2024 or later).

I think the 145m to 160m range is a safe bet.

21m (LT: 128m) by March 2023
14.7m (LT: 142.7m) by March 2024 (30% decline)
7m (LT: 149.7m) by March 2025 (50% decline)
Then sales slow down considerably maybe makes it to 155m-157m.

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It still has Zelda and Splatoon left I don't think that 170 million is that far of a stretch. The console will sell as long as there is no Switch 2.

Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar