and combines software sales, a console with 117 million hardware, and late-cycle with one with 10 million consoles sold early in the console lifecycle; actual sales of ps5 games are not possible to be counted.

MK8DX is such a beast.

SW/SH won't have any chance to outsell BotW, talent won

Like a lot of other folks have mentioned (such as javi741 who made a great post on the subject), I think 2020 was Switch's peak year. It's hard to compete with COVID-19, but also the government (least in the US) was giving out very generous stimulus checks which was likely being directed toward Nintendo Switch purchases. That wont be the same in 2021 and beyond (though we can never doubt the government's ability to give out free money).

I think what's going to really hurt Nintendo over the next year or two is the lack of Software. 2020 at least had Animal Crossing, but 2021 has really nothing. I don't think Metroid and Mario Golf are enough to push Nintendo through the holidays, and it may not be a very good year for them. 2022 should be better, but Nintendo really needs to get some titles out. Internally, they've been slacking since 2017, and you'd think their internal studios would have more ready by now.

I think the worst decision Nintendo made here was the stock buyback. Nintendo has way too much cash right now, and a buyback isn't going to move the needle much (the stock is down since this announcement). The reason investors are pulling back is because sales declined and there aren't really any big titles on the horizon. Splatoon 3 might struggle due to the online membership (Splatoon 2 came out when it was free), and BoTW2 is taking too long and hasn't generated the same excitement since its last announcement. So investors see the good times ending and their taking their gains and leaving. I think a smarter move would be (or will be), to make some acquisitions. Nintendo is having trouble getting things out, and adding a new studio would help fill in the games, or help with development like Monolith does. This would have also showed some growth potential. I think Nintendo does need to come out swinging in 2022 and with the upcoming Nintendo direct, to tell people that, yes, there is a bright future for the system.

If you ignore Pokemon BDSP, and Mario Party, then yes, there is nothing in 2021. 

More like forgot, to be honest. Still, I don't see either of those moving much. Mario Party is already on the Switch. For Pokemon, I think the series is at a bit of a low point due to the disappointment with Sword and Shield and the Pokemon Company's mismanagement of the brand. A lot back be said about Pokemon, but look at the sale of Sword and Sheild against Nintendo other titles. Zelda, Animal Crossing and Mario Kart have all outsold it, and Mario Odyssey is only behind by less than half a million. Contrast this to the 3DS, and the only game that beat Pokemon was Mario Kart. People aren't happy with the look of BDSP and Nintendo has been very quite with the title. It wont be pushing Switch units this holiday season.

Pokemon Company bet against the Switch. The transition for smartphones for them it's given. Arceus maybe will arrive  late. 2022 needs to be the new 2017 for the platform and OLED works too. 

Bold: Are you aware of how Sword & Shield is selling?

I would disagree regarding software outlook; for the future as far as significant games there's the Diamond/Pearl remakes, (internet folks may complain but casuals don't care about graphics much and the nostalgia for these games is massive) Pokemon Legends Arceus, (looks a lot more like the kind of Pokemon game fans were wanting this gen so could pick up quite a few who skipped Let's Go/Sword & Shield/DP remakes) Metroid Dread, (looks like it could smash the series sales history and also could move systems as its a franchise not yet seen on Switch and has hardcore appeal) Mario Party Superstars. (Yes there's one on Switch already but never underestimate nostalgia, with this one bringing back boards and games from the N64 era which is considered the series golden age)

There's also the cumulative effect of lots of other titles like Shin Megami Tensei V, Mario + Rabbids Sparks of Hope, No More Heroes 3, Project Triangle Strategy, etc.

As far as BOTW2, the hype train hasn't really started yet, once it gets closer to release and more is shown it will kick into high gear, as happened with BOTW1 after E3 2016. I also seriously doubt Splatoon 3 will be held back by paid online when it's considered standard on all systems by now.

I very much agree with you that Nintendo should make some acquisitions though; Monolith for example has proven to be an immense asset to them since their purchase in 2008.

I can totally buy that, but I think it's more reason that the Pokemon Company has outlived it's usefulness. Not to go on an entire tangent about Pokemon, but the Pokemon Company is more concerned about milking the series at the cost of the brand. I think it's something Nintendo needs to try and get a handle on. With more Nintendo series beating out Pokemon, it's clear that the brand is in a bit of a decline.

Nobody is talking about Pokemkn 4th gen remakes. I even forgot it was happening this year, the marketing has been abysmally bad. I'm surprised Game Freak are the most pathetic developers I have the displeasure to know, but they are great with marketing, by far the best gaming studio in the world when it comes to marketing

Don't know what is happening with them