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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Xbox will catch up to Playstation this generation

 

Xbox will catch up to playstation this generation

Agree 28 21.21%
 
Disagree 104 78.79%
 
Total:132
eva01beserk said:

So ps now has 3x the games. 

The big question is how many are downloadable. Cuz that's the main issue as a lot of players dont want cloud gaming. 

Lol, I don't think either the leadership of Xbox or Playstation have quite realized that yet. MS is pushing for cloud gaming on phones, while not realizing that most gamers don't want it. Meanwhile Sony thinks offering up a bunch of cloud PS2/PS3 games is acceptable. But anyway you can see that Sony is definitely trying with the subscription service route. They just have the added difficulty of PS3 and PS2 not being easy to emulate on PS4/5 hardware.

Edit: Also keep in mind that the majority of PS2/3 games aren't on Opencritic. Same goes for OG Xbox and 360 games. So the graphic showing the number of games with Mighty/Strong/Fair/Weak is going to be what you should pay attention to. That graphic should show gen 8 and gen 9 offerings mostly. And modern games is what most people want to play these days (I hate admitting that, because I'm a massive Retro Gamer).

Last edited by Cerebralbore101 - on 03 June 2021

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Cerebralbore101 said:
eva01beserk said:

So ps now has 3x the games. 

The big question is how many are downloadable. Cuz that's the main issue as a lot of players dont want cloud gaming. 

Lol, I don't think either the leadership of Xbox or Playstation have quite realized that yet. MS is pushing for cloud gaming on phones, while not realizing that most gamers don't want it. Meanwhile Sony thinks offering up a bunch of cloud PS2/PS3 games is acceptable. But anyway you can see that Sony is definitely trying with the subscription service route. They just have the added difficulty of PS3 and PS2 not being easy to emulate on PS4/5 hardware.

Edit: Also keep in mind that the majority of PS2/3 games aren't on Opencritic. Same goes for OG Xbox and 360 games. So the graphic showing the number of games with Mighty/Strong/Fair/Weak is going to be what you should pay attention to. That graphic should show gen 8 and gen 9 offerings mostly. And modern games is what most people want to play these days (I hate admitting that, because I'm a massive Retro Gamer).

Every single game on gamepass is fully downloadable on xbox and/or pc if its on there. Xcloud is an added service that gives users the option to use the games via cloud if they are on there.



padib said:
  • Microsoft will gain a lot of ground in the US, probably beating the playstation by a two to one ratio in console sales over the course of the generation.
  • Sony will continue to keep a hold on Europe as gamers are very loyal to the brand there and Sony's marketing is very strong there. Over the course of the generation, Microsoft will get strong in the UK but continue to struggle in Spain, Italy, France and other mediterranean countries that are dominated by Sony.
  • In Japan, Nintendo will continue to dominate leaving little room for the other two, esp. Sony, to get an advantage there.
  • While gamepass will be popular on PC, Xbox will be the place to play since the console is a lot cheaper than a gaming PC, and thus much more accessible to the mainstream.

1 > No, not even close... at best they will have similar numbers, at best a small advantage for xbox.
2 > Yeah, sony wins in EU easy. UK is like a mirror of USA.
3 > You are most likely correct here. But Sony will still have some interesting numbers, xbox will flop hard, as aways.
4 > Yup, Gamepass will fare much better on Xbox than on PC, but, atm, it's far from enough to beat Playstation.


At the end i still think Playstation will make 2:1 against xbox, or at least close to 2:1.

Edit: second thought... 2:1 is too much. It's necessary to take into account the big impact of acquisitions like Bethesda in the equation... it's hard for a 2:1 situation to continue. However something like 3:2 ( perhaps a bit more in Playstation favor, closer to 2:1, 70-80% lead.), imho, it's well within the expected reality. Playstation will continue with a healthy lead , at least during this generation.

Last edited by Manlytears - on 03 June 2021

padib said:
RolStoppable said:

Your opening paragraphs are cringeworthy. Not only did you not predict a hybrid console back then - like pretty much everyone else you assumed a shared library between a home console and handheld console - but you dare to suggest that that makes you somehow an expert. That's followed up by a comparison to tbone51 who, unlike you, has a track record of successful predictions based on a big enough sample size.

It's this overconfidence on your part that quickly leads you to make more than just questionable predictions.

1. Xbox sales will not double PS sales in the USA. Not even the Xbox 360 accomplished this despite a myriad of blunders on Sony's behalf during the PS3 generation. XS beating the PS5 in the USA is possible, but not with such a big margin of victory as you predict. A ratio of 1.25:1 in favor of XS is roughly the ceiling we are talking about here.

2. Your prediction that the balance of the European market will remain as it is should make you question if you truly believe that Game Pass is as big of a deal as you say.

3. PS sales may be declining in Japan, but they are still leaps and bounds better than Xbox sales, so why do you say "esp. Sony" when it's crystal clear that Japan represents a major disadvantage for Microsoft?

4. This is an obvious prediction much like the second one, but like everything else, its effect entirely relies on how big Game Pass can become.

5. A tie between the PS5 and XS at roughly 100m units each is wishful thinking. Since you've ruled out significant growth for Xbox in Europe, you'd have to believe that developing markets will explode in popularity within the next several years and will clearly prefer XS over the other two consoles, because otherwise the numbers don't add up.

Lastly, here's what speaks against a tie in sales between the PS5 and the XS:

Microsoft has displayed an attitude, both in words and actions, that they don't have the ambition to become winners in the console market. This stands in stark contrast with what Nintendo and Sony say and do.

Of course Rol, maybe I should follow your lead instead like in this thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/153506/prediction-nintendos-9th-gen-console-to-be-both-home-and-handheld-in-one/1/

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5058010

Or perhaps it's my confidence that allows me to make right predictions. Have you noticed how often people will blatantly reject an outcome because it defies their view, only to be shocked when reality doesn't follow? You and many others are doing it again as usual. You will see at E3 even just this year that Microsoft will be a mastodon this generation from a games delivery point of view. And that refusal to see what is right in front of your eyes is what makes these predictions so delicious when they come true.

You will try to put me down like you always have, calling my posts idiotic or cringy or whatever it is you like to say when you see that someone's intelligence challenges yours, but in the end I generally come out right.

I love how you specifically ignored my post



eva01beserk said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

I think a lot of people are forgetting what monumental change has to happen in order to get one console to make serious headway vs the market leader. Most people don't switch brands of consoles on a whim. If you buy the same brand of console as you did last gen you get to keep your Trophylist/Gamerscore. You get to sell your old system and play your older games on your new system. You get to keep your same online friends. Usually what gets people to switch consoles is a combination of monumental screw ups on one company's part, and amazing headway on another company's part. Several examples from history...

The console industry had to crash in order for Nintendo to get a foot in the door with the NES. Nintendo had the insanely brave strategy of promising to buy back any unsold stock from store owners.

Sega Megadrive/Genesis had to launch 2 years prior to SNES, go hard on marketing, and get a Sonic pack-in. They still sold about 20 million less than SNES.

Sega and Nintendo both massively screwed up during the 32 bit era. Nintendo 64 was mostly a system for 1st party software. Saturn was designed for 2D games, and confusing to develop for. Sony on the other hand played the perfect combo of price + catering to 3rd party devs.

Sony had their $599 debacle early in the 7th gen, while 360 got a ton of great early games. 360 launched a year early. Lots of formerly PS exclusive 3rd party games became multiplatform titles that gen as well. Despite all this Sony still won the generation.

I'm not even going to detail how XB1 messed up since most here already know the story.

Finally, I think people are overestimating how much of an effect Gamepass is going to have on console sales. Gamepass isn't that much better than PSN. Opencritic has a nice tracking system that keeps tabs on every Gamepass and PSN game. Unless their data is wrong or outdated I don't see how Gamepass is going to make that much of a difference in console sales. 

So ps now has 3x the games. 

The big question is how many are downloadable. Cuz that's the main issue as a lot of players dont want cloud gaming. 

From what I know any PS4 game can be downloaded on PS4 and that is it for the moment.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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Azzanation said:
curl-6 said:

No offense man but the amount of spin you're trying to put on this would fling a planet out of orbit.

This thread is about which console sells more, specifically the Xbox Series catching up to PS5 in sales. You're doing everything possible to deflect from that.

Cool.. and whats the exact point? I am surprised you and many others still fail to see the issue with the comparisons.

Its as poor as making a thread comparing Steam Physical sales to Console Physical sales and saying Consoles win.

My entire point is that the comparisons don't make sense anymore. 

So let me get this straight; you're posting on a site dedicated to tracking console sales, claiming that comparing the sales of consoles doesn't make sense any more?

Why do I get the feeling that if the sales were reversed you wouldn't be trying so hard to downplay the leading console?



padib said:

Few of you know that I had already predicted that the hybrid Nintendo console would dominate gen 9. I did this years ago (in 2014) because I understand the video game market and was able to predict years in advance the factors that would make that a reality. The main reason was a unified library between Nintendo's home and portable console, which prior to the hybrid were fragmented, and fragmented their release schedule, making it much stronger once unified.

Like TBone, I like to make controversion predictions because, like history has shown us, when most people take for granted by looking at popularity, they are often wrong by using the popularity factor alone. Much more important real factors make the success of a console, and now with Xbox we have an upcoming winner. Let me explain.

The xbox gamepass looks like just any other game delivery service, but in reality it is a very special one. Xbox gamepass is very aggressive.

On day 1, xbox owners get to play the very best offerings because Microsoft is putting their 1st party games on gamepass at launch. Not only that, but they are hard at work with partners, making sure they do the very same thing. Let's compare some alternatives. Stadia for example was a ruin from the start. Google offers users a membership, but users still have to pay full price for games during their membership. Apple offers Apple arcade, but the games are not what most gamers expect, many being small indie app-like games that are not strong in front of the main industry games. Playstation offers Playstation now, however the main games are not there on launch and the service is streamed.

With Xbox gamepass, gamers can download top games directly to their xbox and play them as if they own the game. And even games they might not buy, they can play due to their subscription, like icing on a cake.

This makes gamepass a very enticing service for people who want to play games without committing to high prices for a full game purchase, while giving others the option to do so if they want to. Someone unsure of what console to choose can easily purchase an xbox with a gamepass subscription and get playing immediately.

As people become more and more aware of this purchasing option, I predict the following:

  • Microsoft will gain a lot of ground in the US, probably beating the playstation by a two to one ratio in console sales over the course of the generation.
  • Sony will continue to keep a hold on Europe as gamers are very loyal to the brand there and Sony's marketing is very strong there. Over the course of the generation, Microsoft will get strong in the UK but continue to struggle in Spain, Italy, France and other mediterranean countries that are dominated by Sony.
  • In Japan, Nintendo will continue to dominate leaving little room for the other two, esp. Sony, to get an advantage there.
  • While gamepass will be popular on PC, Xbox will be the place to play since the console is a lot cheaper than a gaming PC, and thus much more accessible to the mainstream.

Therefore, my prediction is that while Sony will be very strong this gen with 1st party software, with a similar strength to the PS4, Xbox will catch up to Sony within the first 3 years of the lifespan of the gen. This will surprise a lot of people because most underestimate the importance of gamepass and its upcoming impact.

The sales for both consoles will be very strong, stronger than the PS3 era. Both consoles will finish at around 100M units each.

Based on this highly illogical and contradictory prediction I can easily conclude, that you do not understand the video game market.



Jpcc86 said:

"Do you have a moment to talk about our Lord and savior, Gamepass?"

I just want to say that this is the best Comment in the entire Threads and nothing can possible surpass this, Lmao! 
Congrats dude, perfect.



Jpcc86 said:

"Do you have a moment to talk about our Lord and savior, Gamepass?"

 dead



eva01beserk said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

I think a lot of people are forgetting what monumental change has to happen in order to get one console to make serious headway vs the market leader. Most people don't switch brands of consoles on a whim. If you buy the same brand of console as you did last gen you get to keep your Trophylist/Gamerscore. You get to sell your old system and play your older games on your new system. You get to keep your same online friends. Usually what gets people to switch consoles is a combination of monumental screw ups on one company's part, and amazing headway on another company's part. Several examples from history...

The console industry had to crash in order for Nintendo to get a foot in the door with the NES. Nintendo had the insanely brave strategy of promising to buy back any unsold stock from store owners.

Sega Megadrive/Genesis had to launch 2 years prior to SNES, go hard on marketing, and get a Sonic pack-in. They still sold about 20 million less than SNES.

Sega and Nintendo both massively screwed up during the 32 bit era. Nintendo 64 was mostly a system for 1st party software. Saturn was designed for 2D games, and confusing to develop for. Sony on the other hand played the perfect combo of price + catering to 3rd party devs.

Sony had their $599 debacle early in the 7th gen, while 360 got a ton of great early games. 360 launched a year early. Lots of formerly PS exclusive 3rd party games became multiplatform titles that gen as well. Despite all this Sony still won the generation.

I'm not even going to detail how XB1 messed up since most here already know the story.

Finally, I think people are overestimating how much of an effect Gamepass is going to have on console sales. Gamepass isn't that much better than PSN. Opencritic has a nice tracking system that keeps tabs on every Gamepass and PSN game. Unless their data is wrong or outdated I don't see how Gamepass is going to make that much of a difference in console sales. 

So ps now has 3x the games. 

The big question is how many are downloadable. Cuz that's the main issue as a lot of players dont want cloud gaming. 

Every PS4 game is downloadable. According Sony that is over 300 PS4 titles on PS Now. So even by that arbitrary metric PS Now outstrips Game Pass.

https://www.playstation.com/en-us/ps-now/



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