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AJNShelton on 03 June 2021
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padib said:
RolStoppable said:

Your opening paragraphs are cringeworthy. Not only did you not predict a hybrid console back then - like pretty much everyone else you assumed a shared library between a home console and handheld console - but you dare to suggest that that makes you somehow an expert. That's followed up by a comparison to tbone51 who, unlike you, has a track record of successful predictions based on a big enough sample size.

It's this overconfidence on your part that quickly leads you to make more than just questionable predictions.

1. Xbox sales will not double PS sales in the USA. Not even the Xbox 360 accomplished this despite a myriad of blunders on Sony's behalf during the PS3 generation. XS beating the PS5 in the USA is possible, but not with such a big margin of victory as you predict. A ratio of 1.25:1 in favor of XS is roughly the ceiling we are talking about here.

2. Your prediction that the balance of the European market will remain as it is should make you question if you truly believe that Game Pass is as big of a deal as you say.

3. PS sales may be declining in Japan, but they are still leaps and bounds better than Xbox sales, so why do you say "esp. Sony" when it's crystal clear that Japan represents a major disadvantage for Microsoft?

4. This is an obvious prediction much like the second one, but like everything else, its effect entirely relies on how big Game Pass can become.

5. A tie between the PS5 and XS at roughly 100m units each is wishful thinking. Since you've ruled out significant growth for Xbox in Europe, you'd have to believe that developing markets will explode in popularity within the next several years and will clearly prefer XS over the other two consoles, because otherwise the numbers don't add up.

Lastly, here's what speaks against a tie in sales between the PS5 and the XS:

Microsoft has displayed an attitude, both in words and actions, that they don't have the ambition to become winners in the console market. This stands in stark contrast with what Nintendo and Sony say and do.

Of course Rol, maybe I should follow your lead instead like in this thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/153506/prediction-nintendos-9th-gen-console-to-be-both-home-and-handheld-in-one/1/

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5058010

Or perhaps it's my confidence that allows me to make right predictions. Have you noticed how often people will blatantly reject an outcome because it defies their view, only to be shocked when reality doesn't follow? You and many others are doing it again as usual. You will see at E3 even just this year that Microsoft will be a mastodon this generation from a games delivery point of view. And that refusal to see what is right in front of your eyes is what makes these predictions so delicious when they come true.

You will try to put me down like you always have, calling my posts idiotic or cringy or whatever it is you like to say when you see that someone's intelligence challenges yours, but in the end I generally come out right.

I love how you specifically ignored my post