Ah, wasn't looking at it the right way!  Thanks for clearing that up for me!

I don't see the Xbox Series selling over 60mil tbh. PS5 will definitely sell over 100mil but I think it'll stay behind the PS4.
So 100-115mil.
Switch has a very good chance of reaching #1.

I think anyone that's expecting NSW 2021 to be down is making an implicit assumption that I disagree with and that the numbers are starting to challenge.  That assumption is that demand was satisfied in 2020 at 28M and so we'll see it taper off, leading to a drop (small or big).

I don't think the bolded is true.  I think 28M is a result of a supply & production bottleneck.  There's been a lot of discussion on VGC about the "why" of 2020's impressive performance (Covid + ACNH), but I think more focus should be directed on "how" and "what". 

What: NSW matched or just fell short of peak NDS years with ~28M sales in 2020.  Global gross consumer spending for this device was ~$7.7B, vs NDS peak of ~$3.8B.

How: Nintendo suffered major production issues in Q1 2020.  Slow adaptation of increased production leading to further supply issues in Q2-Q4. Relatively moderate software lineup.  MSRP/ASP more than 2x NDS MSRP/ASP.

We don't actually know what true demand was last year; 28M sales is a result of supply constraints and true demand may have been 30/35/40M.

I see several scenarios possible here (ignore the specific numbers and just consider the general premise):

A.) 2020 demand was around 30M.  Demand declines in 2021, resulting in sales of 20-25M

B.) 2020 demand was around 40M.  Demand declines in 2021, resulting in sales of 30-35M

C.) Demand persists at 2020 levels, and sales = whatever Nintendo supplies

This is without considering the boosts/advantages of new software & hardware 2021 can bring.  Not even going to touch the point of price-drops, because I think Nintendo will find that idea untenable when demand continues to outstrip supply (maybe they consider this if they believe Scenario A to be plausible).

Right now, the impression I have is that we are clearly somewhere between B and C.  If we start seeing reports/evidence of continued supply issues, then we can start leaning towards C.

yep, indeed

Let's go to 30mil+ for the financial year. Can anyone post where switch is for the financial year?

Switch has shipped 24.1m so far for the first 9 months of the fiscal year.  We need to get the March 31, 2021 report to know how much they shipped for the last quarter. 

Right now PS5 hasn't felt the impact of all the studios MS had bought. In about 2 years I think it will start hurting PS5 sales significantly as more exclusives come out on Xbox/PC.

My prediction is Switch 1-3 depending on how fast sales drop after 2021.  

PS5 will be 4-7 depending on how competitive Xbox is with Bethesda exclusive games

XSX will be at 9-15 due to the same reason as above. 

Either way, this seems much healthier than last generation. XSX will sell better than Xbox One, PS5 will break 100M, and Switch has a chance of being the best selling console of all time. 

Not sure about that one, depends on what Nintendo is planning to release in November as a revision.

If they can manage to pull a more powerful console which can have next-gen games at the same price as the Series S, there will be more competition than ever.

I think Switch will be at #1, PS5 will be at #10, and X|S...well, nowhere near the top 10.