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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware Mar 6-13 - Xbox Series X|S Sales Top 4 Million

Mandalore76 said:
SKMBlake said:

Switch: #1

PS5: #4

Xbox Series X/S: #15

You don't think the XBox Series will sell more than the XBox One in the end?

I think that is showing the Series X ahead.  PS5 in 4th bumps the One down to 15th.  The Series X in 15th bumps the one even further down to 16th. I'm not sure though.



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

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mk7sx said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

NSW '21 is doing extremely well.  It keeps pulling further ahead of DS '08, which was the DS's best year.  This does help me appreciate how well the DS was doing in early '07 though.  The DS was definitely a force to be reckoned with.  I'll be eager to see how NSW '21 compares to the other years once MHR releases.

FWIW, NDS 08 is a 53 week year on VGChartz (just like 2020).  Through 52 weeks, NDS 07 was indeed slightly ahead. 

That said, per Nintendo's FY shipments, NDS FY07 (04 07 - 03 08) was ~30M and NDS FY08 (04 08 - 03 09) was ~31M, so they are definitely neck-and-neck.

I think NSW 21 will take the #1 spot in the end.  Much stronger predicted SW lineup than last year and they had supply issues all year last year that they've now had time to prepare for (we're still seeing shortages, but not as bad).  If they can get the Pro revision out in Sep, I expect 33-35M.  If its a Nov release, maybe 30-32M.  If it gets pushed to next year then be right around 2020's range.

I'm really not sure how this year will turn out yet, other than I think Switch will have another really good year.  But I don't know if it will be up or down from 2020 yet.  It just seems incredible to me that a system could set the all time annual sales record in its 5th year.  At a certain point sales come down for every system, no matter how successful it is.

On the other hand, you make a lot of really good points.  All signs indicate that software releases will be stronger this year.  A new Switch model will definitely boost sales.  And most importantly, Nintendo should be much more prepared this year for Switch's high demand.  If Switch '21 outperforms last year, then it might be the last point that is the most important.  Who knows how much the Switch could have theoretically sold in '20 if Nintendo had ample supply?  That is how I make sense of it anyway.  I can see '21 being up YoY, in the Switch's 5th year, just because of supply shortages in '20.



DroidKnight said:
Mandalore76 said:

You don't think the XBox Series will sell more than the XBox One in the end?

I think that is showing the Series X ahead.  PS5 in 4th bumps the One down to 15th.  The Series X in 15th bumps the one even further down to 16th. I'm not sure though.

Ah, wasn't looking at it the right way!  Thanks for clearing that up for me!



I don't see the Xbox Series selling over 60mil tbh. PS5 will definitely sell over 100mil but I think it'll stay behind the PS4.
So 100-115mil.
Switch has a very good chance of reaching #1.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
mk7sx said:

FWIW, NDS 08 is a 53 week year on VGChartz (just like 2020).  Through 52 weeks, NDS 07 was indeed slightly ahead. 

That said, per Nintendo's FY shipments, NDS FY07 (04 07 - 03 08) was ~30M and NDS FY08 (04 08 - 03 09) was ~31M, so they are definitely neck-and-neck.

I think NSW 21 will take the #1 spot in the end.  Much stronger predicted SW lineup than last year and they had supply issues all year last year that they've now had time to prepare for (we're still seeing shortages, but not as bad).  If they can get the Pro revision out in Sep, I expect 33-35M.  If its a Nov release, maybe 30-32M.  If it gets pushed to next year then be right around 2020's range.

I'm really not sure how this year will turn out yet, other than I think Switch will have another really good year.  But I don't know if it will be up or down from 2020 yet.  It just seems incredible to me that a system could set the all time annual sales record in its 5th year.  At a certain point sales come down for every system, no matter how successful it is.

On the other hand, you make a lot of really good points.  All signs indicate that software releases will be stronger this year.  A new Switch model will definitely boost sales.  And most importantly, Nintendo should be much more prepared this year for Switch's high demand.  If Switch '21 outperforms last year, then it might be the last point that is the most important.  Who knows how much the Switch could have theoretically sold in '20 if Nintendo had ample supply?  That is how I make sense of it anyway.  I can see '21 being up YoY, in the Switch's 5th year, just because of supply shortages in '20.

I think anyone that's expecting NSW 2021 to be down is making an implicit assumption that I disagree with and that the numbers are starting to challenge.  That assumption is that demand was satisfied in 2020 at 28M and so we'll see it taper off, leading to a drop (small or big).

I don't think the bolded is true.  I think 28M is a result of a supply & production bottleneck.  There's been a lot of discussion on VGC about the "why" of 2020's impressive performance (Covid + ACNH), but I think more focus should be directed on "how" and "what". 

What: NSW matched or just fell short of peak NDS years with ~28M sales in 2020.  Global gross consumer spending for this device was ~$7.7B, vs NDS peak of ~$3.8B.

How: Nintendo suffered major production issues in Q1 2020.  Slow adaptation of increased production leading to further supply issues in Q2-Q4. Relatively moderate software lineup.  MSRP/ASP more than 2x NDS MSRP/ASP.

We don't actually know what true demand was last year; 28M sales is a result of supply constraints and true demand may have been 30/35/40M.

 

I see several scenarios possible here (ignore the specific numbers and just consider the general premise):

A.) 2020 demand was around 30M.  Demand declines in 2021, resulting in sales of 20-25M

B.) 2020 demand was around 40M.  Demand declines in 2021, resulting in sales of 30-35M

C.) Demand persists at 2020 levels, and sales = whatever Nintendo supplies

This is without considering the boosts/advantages of new software & hardware 2021 can bring.  Not even going to touch the point of price-drops, because I think Nintendo will find that idea untenable when demand continues to outstrip supply (maybe they consider this if they believe Scenario A to be plausible).

Right now, the impression I have is that we are clearly somewhere between B and C.  If we start seeing reports/evidence of continued supply issues, then we can start leaning towards C.



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mk7sx said:

VGC Top Consoles 10 Weeks

NSW 2021 holding steady.  In this tracking, MHR will come in week 12, which means it'll line up face-to-face with ACNH launch week from NSW 2020.  Good chance it takes the lead over NDS that week and holds it for a while.

Just remove both Wii years, and NSW 2019, why bother, they are not needed, it's clearly obvious that switch in 2021 will make more than 20M total



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PS5 vs Xbox Series X|S vs Switch Sales Comparison Charts Through March 13

Here we see data representing the global sales through to consumers and change in sales performance of the three current platforms (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S, and Nintendo Switch) and three legacy platforms (PlayStation 4, Xbox One, and Nintendo 3DS) over comparable periods for 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021.  Also shown is the market share for each of the consoles over the same periods.

Year to Date Sales Comparison (Same Periods Covered)

Market Share (Same Periods Covered)

2018 – (Week ending January 13 to March 17)

2019 – (Week ending January 12 to March 16)

2020 – (Week ending January 11 to March 14)

2021 – (Week ending January 9 to March 13)

"Year to date" sales for 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 sales are shown in series at the top of the table and then just below a comparison of 2021 versus 2020 and 2021 versus 2019 is displayed.  This provides an easy-to-view summary of all the data.

Total Sales and Market Share for Each Year

Microsoft

  • Xbox One – Down Year-on-Year 350,117 (-57.0%)
  • Xbox Series X|S – n/a

Nintendo

  • Nintendo Switch - Up Year-on-Year 1,367,255 (54.7%)
  • Nintendo 3DS – Down Year-on-Year 124,305 (-89.6%)

Sony

  • PlayStation 4 – Down Year-on-Year 1,051,700 (-65.7%)
  • PlayStation 5 – n/a


VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Mandalore76 said:

Edit - Please disregard my comment.  DroidKnight pointed out that taking these 3 new positions in the chart would in fact push the XBox One further down the chart below your prediction for the Series X/S.

yep, indeed



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me

Let's go to 30mil+ for the financial year. Can anyone post where switch is for the financial year?



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Eagle367 said:

Let's go to 30mil+ for the financial year. Can anyone post where switch is for the financial year?

Switch has shipped 24.1m so far for the first 9 months of the fiscal year.  We need to get the March 31, 2021 report to know how much they shipped for the last quarter.