The main thing people forget with this topic is that games actually take time to make. The second that Switch became successful, there was not going to be a huge outpouring of games. It takes time to properly make a game.
The other thing though, is the timing. I got this really wrong. I thought games from handheld series like Bravely Default 2, Rune Factory 5 and Monster Hunter Rise would be on Switch by the end of 2019, but we are only getting them right now. Here is what I think actually happened:
1. Third parties were unsure about the Switch as a concept before it launched. "Would it sell more like the Wii U or 3DS?" That would have been their thinking. So they waited until after launch to begin development on games that would normally just be the next game in a handheld series like Bravely Default 2. Remember though that in 2017, it looked like Switch would sell about the same as the 3DS. That is all they needed to start development on a game like BD2. These third party games we are getting right now are based on the belief that Switch will sell like the 3DS.
2. Development on a brand new Japanese 3rd party title for Switch that is traditionally handheld is about 4 years. We are just now getting the games that were approved based on sales data from 2017. Why did it take so long? Part of the delay is due to COVID. But I think a bigger part is that handheld developers tend to be smaller. The power leap going from 3DS to Switch was a lot bigger than the power leap from DS to 3DS. That has slowed down development a lot. Either the game will take a long time or it will be rushed and incomplete like Sword/Shield. That also meant that up until now, 3rd party games were mostly indies and ports, because these games don't take nearly as long to develop.
These games were always on the way though. The 3DS had plenty of third party exclusives. Why wouldn't the Switch?
What really blows my mind is that all of these games are based on the belief that Switch will sell like the 3DS. Last year it became obvious that Switch will actually be Nintendo's #1 or #2 best selling system of all time, totally blowing the 3DS away. Just imagine how many third party games got green lit for the Switch last year. The DS had a significantly bigger game library than either the GBA or 3DS, simply because it had a bigger install base. I'm pretty sure that the 3rd party support Nintendo will get in 2024 will totally put this year's offering to shame, even though this year's third party support puts every previous year to shame. There are going to be a ton of third party games set for a 2024 release, although some of these might be delayed for Switch 2 or maybe have a cross-gen release.