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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware Dec 27-Jan 2 - Hardware Sales Drop as the Holiday Season Ends

400k Switch units in Asia. That is more than any other region sold in total. Wow.



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Nice.
A large and expected drop for the Switch. But somehow, sales are up overall this week from last year. While that doesn't guarantee 2021 could match or surpass 2020 for Switch hardware sales, it certainly makes it more plausible.
Xbox One creeps closer to 50 million. It's pretty much a given now, unless Microsoft announces in the next few weeks that Xbox One S has been discontinued and there isn't much remaining stock.
3DS is pretty negligible now, and has been since it was discontinued. Pretty soon, it's going to get down to selling hundreds of units a week globally instead of thousands.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

@trunkswd 

Here's the GI.biz 2020 Annual report for Australia. 

Highlights:

  • Sales of video games in Australia surged 35% during the pandemic year.
  • 15.8 million boxed and digital video games were sold in 2020. Unlike other markets, the dominant sector was the boxed games business, with 8.5 million games sold (+15% YoY)
  • Digital sales were 7.3 million (+63% YoY).
  • Excluding title from publishers that don't share digital numbers (Nintendo, Betehesda, etc), 58% of sales came via download stores (+45% YoY).
  • The best-selling game in Australia was Animal Crossing: New Horizons, reaching the top without digital sales. #2 was Grand Theft Auto 5, a game originally released in 2013. In fact, GTA 5 sales were up 23% over the year before.
  • #5 is Mario Kart 8: Deluxe, which sold 88% more copies in 2020 (boxed only) than it did in 2019.
  • The top publisher of the year (digital and physical) was Nintendo (16% market share), and if we just count physical sales, that number jumps to 29%.
  • In terms of digital, Ubisoft was the top publisher with a 17% market share.
  • 1.2 million dedicated games devices (including handhelds) were sold in 2020, up 49% YoY.
  • #1 is Switch (up 88% YoY), #2 PS4 (down 22% YoY), #3 is PS5, #4 is Xbox One (down 42% YoY).
  • The PS4 DualShock 4 controller was the most successful controller.

GSD Annual 2020 Top 20 Video Games (Digital + Physical)
1 Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo)*
2 Grand Theft Auto 5 (Rockstar)
3 Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War (Activision Blizzard)
4 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare (Activision Blizzard)
5 Mario Kart 8: Deluxe (Nintendo)*
6 FIFA 21 (EA)
7 Assassin's Creed Valhalla (Ubisoft)
8 The Last of Us Part 2 (Sony)
9 NBA 2K20 (2K Games)
10 NBA 2K21 (2K Games)
11 Ghost of Tsushima (Sony)
12 Just Dance 2020 (Ubisoft)
13 Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege (Ubisoft)
14 FIFA 20 (EA)
15 Red Dead Redemption 2 (Rockstar)
16 Super Mario 3D All-Stars (Nintendo)*
17 Cyberpunk 2077 (Bandai Namco/CD Projekt)*
18 Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 1 + 2 (Activision)
19 Minecraft: Switch edition (Mojang)*
20 Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo)*

*Digital data not available



With 2020 settling at around 28.2M (I think a few regions will pop once we get Nintendo official data, so still chance at above 28.5M), I think there is room for growth in 2021. US/Europe IMO can go 5-10% higher than figures achieved this year (better software slate / revised model / better and more consistent inventory / better pricing during holidays). "Other" regions has even more room than that. Japan best case IMO is flat, more realistically 10-15% down -- its hard to match the impact of a title that cruised to #1 all time in the market in just a few months.

30M dream is still alive.



mk7sx said:

With 2020 settling at around 28.2M (I think a few regions will pop once we get Nintendo official data, so still chance at above 28.5M), I think there is room for growth in 2021. US/Europe IMO can go 5-10% higher than figures achieved this year (better software slate / revised model / better and more consistent inventory / better pricing during holidays). "Other" regions has even more room than that. Japan best case IMO is flat, more realistically 10-15% down -- its hard to match the impact of a title that cruised to #1 all time in the market in just a few months.

30M dream is still alive.

Covid bumped hw dramatically last year, most likely Switch will be down massively due to 2020 insane performance. Above 20M is locked. 



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Why are people using the covid argument for 2020 sales....and pretending like covid has already passed? Suddenly it is 2021, and covid is over? If covid was a big reason for switch sales in 2020, well, i guess it will repeat in 2021 because covid is far from over; not much has changed since last year, and vaccination will take a loooong time.

So i guess switch will continue to sell as much as last year, going with that argument



Maynard_Tool said:

Why are people using the covid argument for 2020 sales....and pretending like covid has already passed? Suddenly it is 2021, and covid is over? If covid was a big reason for switch sales in 2020, well, i guess it will repeat in 2021 because covid is far from over; not much has changed since last year, and vaccination will take a loooong time.

So i guess switch will continue to sell as much as last year, going with that argument

Covid happened, then Animal Crossing released exactly at the same time as the lockdowns started worldwide and then you had entirely families of casual gamers buying a Switch for each member of the family just to play AC.

And then the lockdowns and restrictions continued and the sales continue to rise because people wasn’t travelling or spending money in other stuff. 

But yeah, Covid didn’t boost switch sales in 2020.



kazuyamishima said:
Maynard_Tool said:

Why are people using the covid argument for 2020 sales....and pretending like covid has already passed? Suddenly it is 2021, and covid is over? If covid was a big reason for switch sales in 2020, well, i guess it will repeat in 2021 because covid is far from over; not much has changed since last year, and vaccination will take a loooong time.

So i guess switch will continue to sell as much as last year, going with that argument

Covid happened, then Animal Crossing released exactly at the same time as the lockdowns started worldwide and then you had entirely families of casual gamers buying a Switch for each member of the family just to play AC.

And then the lockdowns and restrictions continued and the sales continue to rise because people wasn’t travelling or spending money in other stuff. 

But yeah, Covid didn’t boost switch sales in 2020.

I didnt say covid didnt boost sales. I said some users are saying switch will be down this year because covid was the main reason for its sales last year....


The point I was trying to make is why the same people that argues covid is the reason for its high sales, believe the switch is going to be way down, compared to last year, if covid is still going on? Lockdowns are still going, and believe me, there is still a long way to go.


I believe that 2021 will be the same as 2020 for Nintendo, especially if the rumored Pro model comes out, following a price cut on the existing models; together with the games that are supposed to release this year, 30M is not out of the question.



At this time:

VGC NSW Q4 2020: 12.2M
VGC NSW Q4 2019: 10.0M



SilenceDeadly said:
mk7sx said:

With 2020 settling at around 28.2M (I think a few regions will pop once we get Nintendo official data, so still chance at above 28.5M), I think there is room for growth in 2021. US/Europe IMO can go 5-10% higher than figures achieved this year (better software slate / revised model / better and more consistent inventory / better pricing during holidays). "Other" regions has even more room than that. Japan best case IMO is flat, more realistically 10-15% down -- its hard to match the impact of a title that cruised to #1 all time in the market in just a few months.

30M dream is still alive.

Covid bumped hw dramatically last year, most likely Switch will be down massively due to 2020 insane performance. Above 20M is locked. 

Well, covid is still around. And we clearly saw covid wasn't the only thing driving the Switch but also Animal Crossing. Once people start travelling and going out, Switch is also a portable system. So nothing says they won't be willing to invest in it. I don't think it can grow in the US, France and Japan. But i do think some other markets in the world like Europe, Australia, Spain, Brazil, China can still grow a lot. So i think 2021 has a good chance at remaining flat or at least not decreasing by much.