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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware Dec 27-Jan 2 - Hardware Sales Drop as the Holiday Season Ends

Maynard_Tool said:

Why are people using the covid argument for 2020 sales....and pretending like covid has already passed? Suddenly it is 2021, and covid is over? If covid was a big reason for switch sales in 2020, well, i guess it will repeat in 2021 because covid is far from over; not much has changed since last year, and vaccination will take a loooong time.

So i guess switch will continue to sell as much as last year, going with that argument

Covid happened, then Animal Crossing released exactly at the same time as the lockdowns started worldwide and then you had entirely families of casual gamers buying a Switch for each member of the family just to play AC.

And then the lockdowns and restrictions continued and the sales continue to rise because people wasn’t travelling or spending money in other stuff. 

But yeah, Covid didn’t boost switch sales in 2020.



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kazuyamishima said:
Maynard_Tool said:

Why are people using the covid argument for 2020 sales....and pretending like covid has already passed? Suddenly it is 2021, and covid is over? If covid was a big reason for switch sales in 2020, well, i guess it will repeat in 2021 because covid is far from over; not much has changed since last year, and vaccination will take a loooong time.

So i guess switch will continue to sell as much as last year, going with that argument

Covid happened, then Animal Crossing released exactly at the same time as the lockdowns started worldwide and then you had entirely families of casual gamers buying a Switch for each member of the family just to play AC.

And then the lockdowns and restrictions continued and the sales continue to rise because people wasn’t travelling or spending money in other stuff. 

But yeah, Covid didn’t boost switch sales in 2020.

I didnt say covid didnt boost sales. I said some users are saying switch will be down this year because covid was the main reason for its sales last year....


The point I was trying to make is why the same people that argues covid is the reason for its high sales, believe the switch is going to be way down, compared to last year, if covid is still going on? Lockdowns are still going, and believe me, there is still a long way to go.


I believe that 2021 will be the same as 2020 for Nintendo, especially if the rumored Pro model comes out, following a price cut on the existing models; together with the games that are supposed to release this year, 30M is not out of the question.



At this time:

VGC NSW Q4 2020: 12.2M
VGC NSW Q4 2019: 10.0M



SilenceDeadly said:
mk7sx said:

With 2020 settling at around 28.2M (I think a few regions will pop once we get Nintendo official data, so still chance at above 28.5M), I think there is room for growth in 2021. US/Europe IMO can go 5-10% higher than figures achieved this year (better software slate / revised model / better and more consistent inventory / better pricing during holidays). "Other" regions has even more room than that. Japan best case IMO is flat, more realistically 10-15% down -- its hard to match the impact of a title that cruised to #1 all time in the market in just a few months.

30M dream is still alive.

Covid bumped hw dramatically last year, most likely Switch will be down massively due to 2020 insane performance. Above 20M is locked. 

Well, covid is still around. And we clearly saw covid wasn't the only thing driving the Switch but also Animal Crossing. Once people start travelling and going out, Switch is also a portable system. So nothing says they won't be willing to invest in it. I don't think it can grow in the US, France and Japan. But i do think some other markets in the world like Europe, Australia, Spain, Brazil, China can still grow a lot. So i think 2021 has a good chance at remaining flat or at least not decreasing by much.



trunkswd said:
SilenceDeadly said:

Covid bumped hw dramatically last year, most likely Switch will be down massively due to 2020 insane performance. Above 20M is locked. 

Switch sales should be up YoY in January and February, but March will be when we know how things are stacking up for Switch in 2021. 

You are an optimist. I doubt that we'll learn about Nintendo's plans for a potential new SKU and their full lineup for the second half of the year in March already.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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RolStoppable said:
trunkswd said:

Switch sales should be up YoY in January and February, but March will be when we know how things are stacking up for Switch in 2021. 

You are an optimist. I doubt that we'll learn about Nintendo's plans for a potential new SKU and their full lineup for the second half of the year in March already.

I was more referring to Switch sales in March 2021 compared to 2020 to see how things will stack up. March 2020 is when Switch sales exploded. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
RolStoppable said:

You are an optimist. I doubt that we'll learn about Nintendo's plans for a potential new SKU and their full lineup for the second half of the year in March already.

I was more referring to Switch sales in March 2021 compared to 2020 to see how things will stack up. March 2020 is when Switch sales exploded. 

I don't think you'll be able to read much out of that. 2020 was an unusual year in many ways. There was the big bump in March which later resulted in a depleted supply chain, then we had a monster October and at the end of the year Nintendo had no big holiday game like they usually have.

2021 will be a year where Switch faces multiple ups and downs in comparison to 2020, so the first three months of sales won't provide much clarity in regards to 2021's full year sales. That's why it is so important to know what Nintendo will have in store.

The general outlook is that 2021 will be up year over year in January and February, down in March and April, up in June (or whenever Switch stock was low in 2020), down in October, potentially up in November and December. Said outlook isn't going to change after we have March sales.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

PS4 and Xbone seem to have instantly snapped back to their pre-holiday baselines; still too early to get a read on PS5 and XS.
Switch of course is the elephant in the room, still way above baseline and closing out with one of the biggest years of any system ever, the third biggest if I'm not mistaken with only DS 2008 and 2009 ahead.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

PS4 and Xbone seem to have instantly snapped back to their pre-holiday baselines; still too early to get a read on PS5 and XS.
Switch of course is the elephant in the room, still way above baseline and closing out with one of the biggest years of any system ever, the third biggest if I'm not mistaken with only DS 2008 and 2009 ahead.

I'd expect them to drop more for the following week (Jan 9).



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

PS4 and Xbone seem to have instantly snapped back to their pre-holiday baselines; still too early to get a read on PS5 and XS.
Switch of course is the elephant in the room, still way above baseline and closing out with one of the biggest years of any system ever, the third biggest if I'm not mistaken with only DS 2008 and 2009 ahead.

I'd expect them to drop more for the following week (Jan 9).

Yeah probably, their new baseline should be lower now they've been replaced.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.