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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware Nov 22 to 28 - Switch Dominates Black Friday Week

Barkley on 12 December 2020
noshten said:
Barkley said:

His point was that every coming week would need to match blackfriday, the biggest week of the year, to make 30m, you post figures from last year confirming that blackfriday is by far the biggest sales week... you are agreeing with his point. Yes december is bigger than november for Nintendo that wasn't argued.

Switch needs to sell another 7.8m to reach a 30m calendar year, as your figure show last year Switch sold 5.27m post-bf. So Switch would have to go from being down 13.6% for BF to being up 48% YoY for the whole of december. I.E 30m is basically impossible unless VGC tracking is massively out.

You are forgetting that Other Regions are driving growth for Nintendo. 

- South Korea and Taiwan have seen huge growth in the past 12 months http://koreabizwire.com/nintendo-switch-a-hot-ticket-in-south-korea/169743

- China will have a full quarter of Ring Fit availability to drive sales https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-09/china-is-nintendo-s-secret-weapon-in-war-with-playstation-xbox

- Brazil launch could also help

So when you are looking at Switch being Flat or slightly up YoY in places like North America, Japan, Europe - you are forgetting the Other region which will be driving growth. 

This is irrelevant.

Global sales combining all regions (including south korea, china, taiwan etc) it is down for BF week.



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Barkley on 12 December 2020
RolStoppable said:
SilenceDeadly said:

You´re comparing a Console in is 4th year with 1 just launched? 

Your post won´t age very well, especially the notable margin part.

I am doing both. First sentence is merely stating the obvious that Switch will continue to be the best-selling console in most weeks.

Second sentence is about lifetime sales where Switch will be notably ahead of the PS5 (20m+ margin) and the PS5 in turn will be notably ahead of the XSX|S (20m+) when all is said and done.

I know exactly how much the PS5 will sell too, it's sale by 2027 are as clear as day. I feel pity for those that don't see it and that it's certain that my favourite company Nintendo will 100% dominate by over 20m units!!!

We are so smart. It's literally written in stone.



SilenceDeadly on 12 December 2020
RolStoppable said:
SilenceDeadly said:

You´re comparing a Console in is 4th year with 1 just launched? 

Your post won´t age very well, especially the notable margin part.

I am doing both. First sentence is merely stating the obvious that Switch will continue to be the best-selling console in most weeks.

Second sentence is about lifetime sales where Switch will be notably ahead of the PS5 (20m+ margin) and the PS5 in turn will be notably ahead of the XSX|S (20m+) when all is said and done.

You´ll be lucky if Switch ends 20M above Ps4. let alone Ps5 which will crush Ps4 numbers.

Ps5 will outsell Switch launch alligned going forward (1st 2 years) even without Japan. 

You think Switch is some magical Console that´ll keep selling like this forever, you guys can´t have a decent performance from a Nintendo Console that you´ll go absolutely delusional in no time, unbeliavable. 

With that said, Switch will obviously CLEAR 100M easilly, might outsell Ps4 when all is said and done if Ps4 stops at 125M. 

We still don´t know Ps4 legs going forward because there´s barely any stock, we don´t know Sony Price Strategy aswell, everything isn´t as clear as you say. 

Last edited by SilenceDeadly - on 12 December 2020

Agente42 on 12 December 2020
RolStoppable said:
SilenceDeadly said:

You´ll be lucky if Switch ends 20M above Ps4. let alone Ps5 which will crush Ps4 numbers.

Ps5 will outsell Switch launch alligned going forward (1st 2 years) even without Japan. 

You think Switch is some magical Console that´ll keep selling like this forever, you guys can´t have a decent performance from a Nintendo Console that you´ll go absolutely delusional in no time, unbeliavable. 

With that said, Switch will obviously CLEAR 100M easilly, might outsell Ps4 when all is said and done if Ps4 stops at 125M. 

We still don´t know Ps4 legs going forward because there´s barely any stock, we don´t know Sony Price Strategy aswell, everything isn´t as clear as you say. 

PS5 is going to crush PS4 numbers? Based on what? Where is that growth going to come from?

The way you are framing your post, you are essentially predicting that the PS5 will become the best-selling console of all-time.

"Market growth", came for three ways.

- Cannibalize competition 

- New product to appeal to former gamers and then a new public 

- New countries and regions add to the distribution line.  

Sony PS5 maybe cannibalize more Xbox branches. But we need one year or so(more time than launch window) to make a good analysis. Ps4 market growth became for the competition:  Nintendo and Microsoft make horrible decisions about their console lines. 

The third option, where sony doesn't have a foothold on the game market? I don't know. 

Besides based on the second, Nintendo uses the third option too, Asia became Nintendo Territory now. Others, in Nintendo financial reports, have significant growth. 

 

Last edited by Agente42 - on 12 December 2020

AJNShelton on 12 December 2020
Barkley said:
SKMBlake said:

You do know that the Switch sells way more in December than in November, right ? Like 1+ million per week for 5 weeks in a row until the end of the year. Black Friday isn't nearly as big as Christmas for the Switch, unlike the other 2 consoles.

Last year:

- Week 1 (BF): 1.88

- Week 2: 1.55

- Week 3: 1.2

- Week 4: 1.6

- Week 5 (31st december): 0.92

His point was that every coming week would need to match blackfriday, the biggest week of the year, to make 30m, you post figures from last year confirming that blackfriday is by far the biggest sales week... you are agreeing with his point. Yes december is bigger than november for Nintendo that wasn't argued.

Switch needs to sell another 7.8m to reach a 30m calendar year, as your figure show last year Switch sold 5.27m post-bf. So Switch would have to go from being down 13.6% for BF to being up 48% YoY for the whole of december. I.E 30m is basically impossible unless VGC tracking is massively out.

Yeah, but that was last year. I gave figures from 2019 for example purposes. You can't ignore the fact that the Switch sells way way way more almost every week of this year than last year. So, unless there is stock issues, if last year the Switch sold 5 million after BF, I can def see the Switch selling 7 million this year.



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SilenceDeadly on 12 December 2020
RolStoppable said:
SilenceDeadly said:

You´ll be lucky if Switch ends 20M above Ps4. let alone Ps5 which will crush Ps4 numbers.

Ps5 will outsell Switch launch alligned going forward (1st 2 years) even without Japan. 

You think Switch is some magical Console that´ll keep selling like this forever, you guys can´t have a decent performance from a Nintendo Console that you´ll go absolutely delusional in no time, unbeliavable. 

With that said, Switch will obviously CLEAR 100M easilly, might outsell Ps4 when all is said and done if Ps4 stops at 125M. 

We still don´t know Ps4 legs going forward because there´s barely any stock, we don´t know Sony Price Strategy aswell, everything isn´t as clear as you say. 

PS5 is going to crush PS4 numbers? Based on what? Where is that growth going to come from?

The way you are framing your post, you are essentially predicting that the PS5 will become the best-selling console of all-time.

Well, it will. 



Fight-the-Streets on 12 December 2020

Calendar year vs. fiscal year and shipment vs. sell-through - these are the essential questions to struggle with. For us in the West it's normal to think in Jan. - Dec. terms, that's how we calculate, how we feel the year. However, in Asia (at least on Corp. side) the year more often than not consists of Mar. - Apr. It's the fiscal year that counts for them and nothing else. It is in fact the only metric that counts when we make comparisons. Although it's fun and logical for us in the West to compare sales of calendar years, it is irrelevant, fiscal year is the one to go. On the other, I don't think console sales differ much between calendar and fiscal year. If your holiday quarter sucks you can't make it up in Jan. - Mar. to bolster your fiscal year. Same for calendar year: If you holiday quarter is gigantic, a simply modest Q1 earlier in the year can't bring the review of the year down.

Regarding shipment vs. sell-through: Of course only the consoles that actually end in the hands of the consumer (or scalper, it's a sell-through after all for the console manufacturer) are of interest. However, as company usually only give out shipment numbers, it's the one and only metric that counts for comparisons.

Why I come up with all these: I just see that those two classifications cause lots of trouble on forums such as VGChartz. It's logical for the average mind that as soon as it reads or hears about sales numbers it logically interprets them as sell-through numbers. Same for a year: Our (western) mind is conditioned since early childhood to think in Jan.-Dec. terms. Everything else is illogical for us. To be honest, it took me into early adulthood, when I started to be interested in sales numbers of gaming companies, reading financial reports etc., that I actually found out that the fiscal year isn't necessarily the same as the calendar year.

What I ultimately want to say with this post is that if we make (semi-) professional sales comparisons, i.e. the backbone of VGChartz, we should use the most precise metrics available from direct sources. Direct sources of course are the financial reports of the console makers (or the publishers for software) themselves and the most precise metrics they give us to work with are fiscal year numbers and shipment numbers! Everything else (though interesting as well) is just fanboy talk!



Mnementh on 12 December 2020
SilenceDeadly said:
RolStoppable said:

I am doing both. First sentence is merely stating the obvious that Switch will continue to be the best-selling console in most weeks.

Second sentence is about lifetime sales where Switch will be notably ahead of the PS5 (20m+ margin) and the PS5 in turn will be notably ahead of the XSX|S (20m+) when all is said and done.

You´ll be lucky if Switch ends 20M above Ps4. let alone Ps5 which will crush Ps4 numbers.

Ps5 will outsell Switch launch alligned going forward (1st 2 years) even without Japan. 

You think Switch is some magical Console that´ll keep selling like this forever, you guys can´t have a decent performance from a Nintendo Console that you´ll go absolutely delusional in no time, unbeliavable. 

With that said, Switch will obviously CLEAR 100M easilly, might outsell Ps4 when all is said and done if Ps4 stops at 125M. 

We still don´t know Ps4 legs going forward because there´s barely any stock, we don´t know Sony Price Strategy aswell, everything isn´t as clear as you say. 

You say Switch is no magical console, and I agree. But then you also say PS5 will crush PS4 numbers based on... nothing. So you believe PS5 is some magical console, because otherwise I cannot see how you make this prediction.

To be clear: PS4 is no dud, it is at this point the second best selling Playstation console ever. If you predict PS5 will beat that... nay *crush that* (and obviously it means 20M+ more than PS4, deriving from the sentence before), then you will need something more to back that up than you thinking PS5 is magical.

If you really think PS5 lifetime will outsell PS4 lifetime by 20M+, then I am more than willing to bet on that.



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Jumpin on 12 December 2020
SilenceDeadly said:
RolStoppable said:

PS5 is going to crush PS4 numbers? Based on what? Where is that growth going to come from?

The way you are framing your post, you are essentially predicting that the PS5 will become the best-selling console of all-time.

Well, it will. 

No it won’t.

Hitchens’s law invoked.

/debate



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

noshten on 12 December 2020
Barkley said:
noshten said:

You are forgetting that Other Regions are driving growth for Nintendo. 

- South Korea and Taiwan have seen huge growth in the past 12 months http://koreabizwire.com/nintendo-switch-a-hot-ticket-in-south-korea/169743

- China will have a full quarter of Ring Fit availability to drive sales https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-09/china-is-nintendo-s-secret-weapon-in-war-with-playstation-xbox

- Brazil launch could also help

So when you are looking at Switch being Flat or slightly up YoY in places like North America, Japan, Europe - you are forgetting the Other region which will be driving growth. 

This is irrelevant.

Global sales combining all regions (including south korea, china, taiwan etc) it is down for BF week.

For most of Asia December & January are far more important as far as hardware and software sales. 

This November there wasn't any huge 1st Party game in Japan, nothing that can compare to Pokemon Sword /Shield which shipped 16 million in its first quarter.

In terms of this year's December sales are already up YoY in Japan, because the combination of Momotaro, New Horizon, Ring Fit and plenty of new releases and evergreens are maintaining momentum heading into the main holiday period in Japan. 

It's the first holiday for New Horizon while for Ring Fit finally has stock which was lacking last December. People are continuing to underestimate how much hardware these two games continues to sell all over the World. The next few weeks if there is supply Ring Fit and New Horizon will be selling absurd amounts, 

Just take a look at the YoY Software growth in Japan, and markets like China, South Korea and Taiwan are following a similar trend. Ring Fit has exited the Top 3 of South Korea and Taiwan only once during the past 3 months. While China will contribute to huge growth this holiday, as Ring Fit which launched in September there continues to push systems.

Top 10 Week 49, 2020: 

  1. Momotaro Dentetsu - 115.884 (-9%)
  2. Derby Stallion - 74.244 / NEW
  3. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 57.104 (+61%)
  4. Ring Fit Adventure - 40.176 (+12%)
  5. Atelier Ryza 2: Lost Legends & the Secret Fairy - 30.643 / NEW
  6. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity - 23.276 (-43%)
  7. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 23.180 (+58%)
  8. Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 21.280 (+0%)
  9. Shiren the Wanderer - 19.594 / NEW 
  10. Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass - 15.543 (+26%)

Software TOTAL: 420.924

Hardware TOTAL: 204.622

Top 10 Week 49:

  1. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 201.838 (-27%)
  2. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 34.122 (+30%)
  3. Ring Fit Adventure - 16.128 (-28%)
  4. Minecraft - 15.335 (+38%)
  5. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 - 15.159 (+45%)
  6. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 14.623 (+49%)
  7. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 13.959 (+43%)
  8. Super Mario Party - 13.872 (+47%)
  9. Super Mario Maker 2 - 12.284 (+57%)
  10. Fishing Spirits - 11.521 (+52%)

Software TOTAL: 334.341

Hardware TOTAL: 188.501