We have 3.7M sold from October until November 14. I expect 500k in week 47 and 2M in Black Friday week. So at the end of November we should be at 6.2 M. We should approx. see 1.5M in every December week – that would be another 6M. So we have 12.2M at minimum (which is already a record), if sales are the same as last year in the upcoming weeks.

I still make a safe bet and say 13M at the end of this quarter. 14M is possible though, if we don't have any shortages and if sales are 30 % up YoY like in the past weeks.

Oh, you were talking about shipments and not units sold to customers, my bad!

@RolStoppable Fair enough, but just for some more data.

It seems like, in the US at least, the quarter is off to a huge increase in HW shipments if October is anything to go by.  SW shipments would naturally not be up as much YoY given no release as large as Pokemon and Covid obviously driving up digital sales, so this should be even more HW skewed than last year and we're up big time.  Hopefully David (or someone else with access to this ImportGenius data) could update this come November.  But in an earlier David indicated that that October figure was the largest HW shipment Nintendo has ever sent to the US for the Switch LTD so far.

its less about how many they can sell, more about how many they can MAKE, which is INSANE for a console with 70m install base thats already selling 10mil on a holiday quarter

There's probably a reason its never been done before even in the prime of the DS; producing and shipping that many consoles in 3 months is just insane.
I do think they could have a shot at breaking the record since they already got relatively close last year, but I'd be very suprised if they went as high as 14 mil.

B) Safe Bet (10-15%)

4.86mil: Americas (+15%)
2.66mil: Japan (+10%)
3.32mil: Europe (+10%)
1.27mil: Others (+10%)

12.11mil: Worldwide



C) Optimistic (10-30%)

5.50mil: Americas (+30%)
2.66mil: Japan (+10%)
3.47mil: Europe (+15%)
1.38mil: Others (+20%)

13.01mil: Worldwide

And so it begins

D) Tbone Prediction (15%-50%)

5.90mil: Americas
2.60mil: Japan
3.90mil: Europe
1.60mil: Others

14.00mil: Worldwide

No1 can see this here??? Not too bad On being optimistic imo

I’m not not keeping my hopes up after the Wii U. Switch is nearly 4 years old, and the holiday quarter Wii U had when it was around 4 saw it sell 200K! But, I have a TON of faith in the Switch, I’m also feeling BOLD and so I think Nintendo fans will be happy to know that Switch should sell FIVE times that amount for a total of...... one MILLION units.