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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD PREDICTION: NSW Will break Record this Quarter for Highest Shipment Ever! (14mil+)

 

NSW Will Ship

Under 10mil 5 9.43%
 
10mil 0 0%
 
11mil 6 11.32%
 
12mil 19 35.85%
 
13mil 14 26.42%
 
14mil+ 9 16.98%
 
Total:53
RolStoppable said:

Decent chance that it will be the highest quarter ever, but it won't be by much. Just barely above 12m at best.

If it was such a sure thing, Nintendo would have upped their forecast by more. It wasn't even a month ago that they said 24m for the year and 12m in fiscal Q3 would already eclipse that; Switch is already above 12m in the first two quarters of this fiscal year.

One important reason why these numbers don't add up is that large shipments in preparation for the holiday season went already out in September, so an inflated fiscal Q2 is going to bring down the potential of Q3. Another reason is that Nintendo knew that their lineup for the holiday quarter is light this year and they aren't banking on momentum to remain sky-high for sure. And then there's the fact that only Nintendo knows how high their Switch production really is.

I expect Q3 shipments to fall into the range of 11.00 to 12.25 million.


can you do a breakdown of 4 regions as best as you can, I should of added it to the OP.

NoA:

Europe:

Japan:

RotW:



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We have 3.7M sold from October until November 14. I expect 500k in week 47 and 2M in Black Friday week. So at the end of November we should be at 6.2 M. We should approx. see 1.5M in every December week – that would be another 6M. So we have 12.2M at minimum (which is already a record), if sales are the same as last year in the upcoming weeks.

I still make a safe bet and say 13M at the end of this quarter. 14M is possible though, if we don't have any shortages and if sales are 30 % up YoY like in the past weeks.

Oh, you were talking about shipments and not units sold to customers, my bad!

Last edited by siebensus4 - on 28 November 2020

tbone51 said:


can you do a breakdown of 4 regions as best as you can, I should of added it to the OP.

NoA: ~5.5m

Europe: ~3.5m

Japan: ~2m

RotW: ~1m

I wrote it into your post, a breakdown for ~12m globally. Certainly looks lowballed, but like I said before, there was a significant gap between sell-through and shipments going into the holiday quarter because America and Europe already had large shipments on their way.

I won't mind being wrong here, but I am not going to bank on pent-up demand being so huge that Hyrule Warriors as Nintendo's big holiday title will be sufficient to break records by big margins.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

@RolStoppable Fair enough, but just for some more data.

It seems like, in the US at least, the quarter is off to a huge increase in HW shipments if October is anything to go by.  SW shipments would naturally not be up as much YoY given no release as large as Pokemon and Covid obviously driving up digital sales, so this should be even more HW skewed than last year and we're up big time.  Hopefully David (or someone else with access to this ImportGenius data) could update this come November.  But in an earlier David indicated that that October figure was the largest HW shipment Nintendo has ever sent to the US for the Switch LTD so far.



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its less about how many they can sell, more about how many they can MAKE, which is INSANE for a console with 70m install base thats already selling 10mil on a holiday quarter



There's probably a reason its never been done before even in the prime of the DS; producing and shipping that many consoles in 3 months is just insane.
I do think they could have a shot at breaking the record since they already got relatively close last year, but I'd be very suprised if they went as high as 14 mil.



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2021 predictions:

  • Switch - 27m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m


Quarter 3 FY20 #s

4.23mil: Americas
2.42mil: Japan
3.02mil: Europe
1.15mil: Others

10.82mil: Worldwide

A) Everything is up by 5% (Pessimistic)
B) Everything is up by 10-15% (safe bet)
C) Everything is up a lot by 15-30% (Optimistic and realistic)
D) Tbone51 prediction 10-45%


A) 5% Everything

4.44mil: Americas
2.54mil: Japan
3.17mil: Europe
1.21mil: Others

11.36mil: Worldwide

I’ll post others in a sec

B) Safe Bet (10-15%)

4.86mil: Americas (+15%)
2.66mil: Japan (+10%)
3.32mil: Europe (+10%)
1.27mil: Others (+10%)

12.11mil: Worldwide



C) Optimistic (10-30%)

5.50mil: Americas (+30%)
2.66mil: Japan (+10%)
3.47mil: Europe (+15%)
1.38mil: Others (+20%)

13.01mil: Worldwide



And so it begins



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also