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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD PREDICTION: NSW Will break Record this Quarter for Highest Shipment Ever! (14mil+)

 

NSW Will Ship

Under 10mil 5 9.43%
 
10mil 0 0%
 
11mil 6 11.32%
 
12mil 19 35.85%
 
13mil 14 26.42%
 
14mil+ 9 16.98%
 
Total:53

Decent chance that it will be the highest quarter ever, but it won't be by much. Just barely above 12m at best.

If it was such a sure thing, Nintendo would have upped their forecast by more. It wasn't even a month ago that they said 24m for the year and 12m in fiscal Q3 would already eclipse that; Switch is already above 12m in the first two quarters of this fiscal year.

One important reason why these numbers don't add up is that large shipments in preparation for the holiday season went already out in September, so an inflated fiscal Q2 is going to bring down the potential of Q3. Another reason is that Nintendo knew that their lineup for the holiday quarter is light this year and they aren't banking on momentum to remain sky-high for sure. And then there's the fact that only Nintendo knows how high their Switch production really is.

I expect Q3 shipments to fall into the range of 11.00 to 12.25 million.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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Supply constrained



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13 because it's Friday. :)

Last edited by jenpol - on 27 November 2020

RolStoppable said:

Decent chance that it will be the highest quarter ever, but it won't be by much. Just barely above 12m at best.

If it was such a sure thing, Nintendo would have upped their forecast by more. It wasn't even a month ago that they said 24m for the year and 12m in fiscal Q3 would already eclipse that; Switch is already above 12m in the first two quarters of this fiscal year.

One important reason why these numbers don't add up is that large shipments in preparation for the holiday season went already out in September, so an inflated fiscal Q2 is going to bring down the potential of Q3. Another reason is that Nintendo knew that their lineup for the holiday quarter is light this year and they aren't banking on momentum to remain sky-high for sure. And then there's the fact that only Nintendo knows how high their Switch production really is.

I expect Q3 shipments to fall into the range of 11.00 to 12.25 million.

FWIW, Nintendo's logic for the 24M forecast was that they left the 2nd half FC alone from original estimate.  This is stated in their official published QA translation as well.

In a nutshell:

Original Forecast

Q1/Q2: 7,500K

Q3/Q4: 11,500K

Total: 19,000K

Revised Forecast

Q1/Q2: 12,520K (Actual)

Q3/Q4: 11,500K (unchanged from OG forecast)

Total: 24,000K

I wouldn't take this as a signal for what they are actually able to ship this quarter at all.  



mk7sx said:

FWIW, Nintendo's logic for the 24M forecast was that they left the 2nd half FC alone from original estimate.  This is stated in their official published QA translation as well.

In a nutshell:

Original Forecast

Q1/Q2: 7,500K

Q3/Q4: 11,500K

Total: 19,000K

Revised Forecast

Q1/Q2: 12,520K (Actual)

Q3/Q4: 11,500K (unchanged from OG forecast)

Total: 24,000K

I wouldn't take this as a signal for what they are actually able to ship this quarter at all.  

Which I don't do anyway, because I expect them to reach the 24m total with Q3 alone, not needing Q4.

But it's not as simple as extrapolating shipments from previous quarters, because sell-through lagged behind more than usual with the most recent financial report. That's why I won't be hopping on that 13m+ or 14m+ bandwagon.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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I won't go against Master tbone's predictions, since he's our resident Nostradamus. So 14M it is.



I actually think you’re gonna be wrong about this one. Lack of a huge title and stock issues are going to hamper it. I don’t think 14 million is gonna happen 

Last edited by MasonADC - on 27 November 2020

It is definitely possible.
During the holiday quarter, Nintendo typically ships more than double or almost triple what they did in the July-Sept. quarter. They shipped 6.83 million units in the July-Sept. 2020 period. So all they would have to do is... What they usually do every holiday season.



Since you are predicting it, I will believe you.



I’m hoping japan gets some real stocks soon, as well as a monster shipment for the west, mainly US.

Japan 2.5mil Shipment (already over 800k sold with 5 and half weeks left

US Oct was 700k+ sold so I think they can ship 6mil there with a lot of it coming to be on store shelves.
Sell thru for US of course will be over 6mil (Oct: 730k + Nov: 2100k + Dec 2800k)

So it should look something like this.... (if Nintendo can ship enough with at least 2mil WW on store shelves after holidays)

6600k: NoA
3800k: Europe
2800k: Asia (japan/Korea/Taiwan/etc)
1000k: RotW

1420k: WorldWide