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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD PREDICTION: NSW Will break Record this Quarter for Highest Shipment Ever! (14mil+)

 

NSW Will Ship

Under 10mil 5 9.43%
 
10mil 0 0%
 
11mil 6 11.32%
 
12mil 19 35.85%
 
13mil 14 26.42%
 
14mil+ 9 16.98%
 
Total:53

Actual result fell right in the middle of my predicted range. Take that, haters!

Looking through all the posts, only Nintendo fans are left to predict these things here. VGC may be as good as dead.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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tbone51 said:

11.5mil+ I was wayyy off, way too bold I’m sad :(

Guess no new huge game from Nintendo still made a difference acterall

I was off by 10.5 million.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

I thought it would be 12 million. Wasn't far of.



SKMBlake said:
tbone51 said:

11.5mil+ I was wayyy off, way too bold I’m sad :(

Guess no new huge game from Nintendo still made a difference acterall

I think shortage issues played a bigger role than expected

Both that and that missing holiday game from Nintendo 



JP went higher than expected.  Untracked/undertracked sales by Famitsu (My Nintendo Store is absent, weak weighting of Amazon.jp) are probably to blame.  First 3.5-4 weeks in JP 2021 are off to a strong start so hopefully they can keep supply ample for another 1.6-1.9M this quarter.

NA/Europe overprediction was probably the inventory margin.  For the US, I guess channels are empty, so January numbers will need fresh inventory.  Europe probably had enough stock leftover from the end of Sep AND not much stock leftover after the end of Dec.  We also never got hard Dec numbers for Europe so its possible that it was down YoY in that month.

"Other" was way overpredicted.  Last quarter's gigantic shipment must have been meant to cover much of this Q.  Or stock priority was given to the major markets during the holiday Q instead.  Wonder how Chinese New Year period will go.



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A lack of a big holiday title and stock issues definitely hurt Nintendo, but they still managed to sell more than last year. I could actually see next holiday being even better due to likely have big games (BOTW 2, DP remakes), as well as price drops and/or revisions. Also, I am hopeful that the stock issues won't be around next holiday.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

I think they should ship at least 16m this quarter if they are able.  The real question is, "are they able"?

Heh, I was riding the hype train pretty hard when I wrote this.  Time to come back to reality.  Switch is still doing awesome though.



noshten said:

Lets aim for the stars. I think they might over ship because there is a lot of momentum heading into 2021. 

  • Japan >2M 
  • North America >6M
  • Europe >4.5M
  • Other >2.25M

TOTAL: >14.75M

  • Japan >2.57M (+570K)
  • North America >4.89M (-1.11M)
  • Europe >3.43M (-1.07M)
  • Other >1.98M (-270K)

Its going to happen in 2021, peak year :D

They didn't actually overship, everything they shipped was sold but I guess the 30 million+ production is maybe going to come into play in 2021. 

Even though it didn't reach the lofty heights not seen by another platform this was a historic quarter for Nintendo without a huge fall title... momentum from New Horizon, Ring Fit and other evergreens really carried it to new heights this holiday but 2021 will be the peak due to software line-up. 

We are already seeing signs that this will be the peak year in Japan, as both hardware and software are way up YoY and Bowser's Fury, Monster Hunter and bunch of other games haven't even launched yet. 



RolStoppable said:

Actual result fell right in the middle of my predicted range. Take that, haters!

Looking through all the posts, only Nintendo fans are left to predict these things here. VGC may be as good as dead.

I would have but I was busy looking for a PS5, my prediction is around 11.5 million more than my PS5 that I still don't own.



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RolStoppable said:

Actual result fell right in the middle of my predicted range. Take that, haters!

Looking through all the posts, only Nintendo fans are left to predict these things here. VGC may be as good as dead.

Yeah I've noticed that a lot of Playstation fan posters have either stopped posting entirely or post far less often compared to even just 1-2 years ago. PS5 sales are gonna fall behind the PS4 for at least a while due to the stock issue and Switch will have another very good year so this place is gonna continue to have primarily Nintendo fans posting for another 1-2 years though by 2023 the forums will probably be close to death anyway.