JP went higher than expected. Untracked/undertracked sales by Famitsu (My Nintendo Store is absent, weak weighting of Amazon.jp) are probably to blame. First 3.5-4 weeks in JP 2021 are off to a strong start so hopefully they can keep supply ample for another 1.6-1.9M this quarter.
NA/Europe overprediction was probably the inventory margin. For the US, I guess channels are empty, so January numbers will need fresh inventory. Europe probably had enough stock leftover from the end of Sep AND not much stock leftover after the end of Dec. We also never got hard Dec numbers for Europe so its possible that it was down YoY in that month.
"Other" was way overpredicted. Last quarter's gigantic shipment must have been meant to cover much of this Q. Or stock priority was given to the major markets during the holiday Q instead. Wonder how Chinese New Year period will go.